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Issue 222 October 2018

Can Trump last?

Will the Mueller investigation take down Trump? As soon as one crisis fades, another appears, but the investigation has been by far the most persistent one for the Trump administration. Headed by former (Republican nominated) FBI director, Robert Mueller, it is looking into alleged collusion between Trump’s presidential campaign and the Russian government.

The investigation is seen by many as a beacon of hope, wondering whether it will tip the scale in November’s midterm elections and get the Republicans out of Congress – and whether Trump will be impeached.

The Mueller investigation is showing what was already generally known, even if there wasn’t concrete evidence: that Trump and his associates are white-collar corporate criminals. Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager, was found guilty on eight counts of evading taxes by stashing tens of millions of dollars in foreign bank accounts and lying to obtain millions of dollars in loans. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, pled guilty to paying off Stormy Daniels and another woman with campaign money at the direction of Trump, to stay silent about their affairs with him.

The Mueller investigation can put pressure on Republican politicians, caught between their pro-Trump constituents and their desires for the Republican Party to return to its pre-Trump ‘normalcy’, to pick a side. Despite the divisions at the top, however, Trump’s approval ratings among the Republican base remain relatively high.

As much as he can, Trump has used the investigation and the Russia-gate narrative to instil a siege mentality in his supporters that the political and media establishment are out to get him. This helps his image as a president standing up to the corrupt establishment, and ‘draining the swamp’ in Washington DC. Trump’s vicious anti-immigrant policies have helped him shore up the more conservative section of his base, and the surface-level health of the economy lets him portray himself as fighting for good jobs.

But while certain statistics, such as low unemployment, show a strong economy, this is not the reality experienced by the overwhelming majority of ordinary people. A recent study from Pew Research shows that the real (accounting for inflation) average wage has remained essentially the same since 1974. And, while some workers are getting raises, most are going to those who were already on the higher end of the pay scale. The situation is even worse on average for women, immigrants and black workers. Capitalist financial commentators are beginning to sound warnings about the deeper processes at play. If the Democratic Party leadership were to call for mass demonstrations, direct action and civil disobedience, millions would respond and the question of bringing down Trump could be realistically posed.

Such action could make a strong call for impeachment and link that to a concrete alternative programme that speaks to people’s everyday needs – Medicare for All, stopping deportations, running the US on 100% renewable energy, and free college for young people. Medicare for All is now supported by 70% of Americans, including 52% of Republicans.

Some Democratic candidates have tried to call for impeachment, but are facing opposition from the party’s leadership. Earlier in the summer, Nancy Pelosi, minority leader in the House of Representatives, said: "I do not think that impeachment is a policy agenda". But when impeachment could help put an end to some of Trump’s most vicious anti-worker and anti-minority policies, of course it is.

This reflects the Democratic Party’s position in US politics, as the ‘more liberal’ party of the capitalist class. The leadership have shown they would prefer that Trump stays in the White House, and to use him as a bogeyman to mobilise voters. The clearest failure to lead effective opposition was around Trump’s plan to phase out Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) – which can allow for two-year deferrals from deportation – when the Democrats abandoned immigrant students fighting for their rights.

The movement cannot afford to sit back and let the Mueller investigation run its course and hope the Democrats will act. The party leadership will continue to argue against impeachment unless there is mass organised pressure. How much pressure they will face depends on the strength and organisation of the movement and, crucially, its leadership.

Millions of people now look to Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other ‘socialists’ or progressives in Congress to help lead the way. Sanders has argued sharply against Trump and the billionaire class, but has failed to build an organisation or movement that can take to the streets, instead leading ‘Our Revolution’, which focuses overwhelmingly on elections.

The ‘Sanders wing’ is now strengthened in Congress with the primary election victory of Ocasio-Cortez, providing a new opportunity for the 50,000-strong Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) to play a bigger role in building decisive struggle, fighting against the failed strategy of the Democratic Party leadership and making steps towards a new working-class party to the left of the Democrats. Utilising Ocasio-Cortez’s public office and profile to advance the cause of socialism will be an important test for the DSA.

The teachers’ strike wave that swept several Republican-ruled states in the spring showed the type of action necessary to win real victories. Through well-organised strikes and community support, teachers were able to win higher wages for public school workers, increased education funding and, in the case of West Virginia, higher wages for all public employees too in just a matter of days.

Even reforms like Medicare for All and free college tuition which seem like common sense to so many will require a socialist strategy including mass movements, strike action, working-class political organisation, and, ultimately, systemic change along socialist lines.

Elan Axelbank, Socialist Alternative, USA

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