Russia resented any attack on its traditional Serbian ally. Antagonisms between capitalist Russia, trying to assert itself in the region, and an eastwards expanding NATO, were greatly heightened. Some Western powers dismissed Russian opposition on the basis that it is no longer a world superpower and needs Western aid to recover from a deep economic crisis. Others were terrified at the unpredictable response of an unstable and markedly nationalist Russian regime to NATO air strikes on 'brother Slavs'.

Russia and China would have vetoed UN support for attacks on the basis of the 'principle of national sovereignty' - that what a regime does within its own borders is its own affair. Obviously, they have in mind their own national minorities 'problems' (such as Chechenya and Tibet), and do not care for the precedent of NATO interference. NATO itself includes member states like Turkey, which has been conducting a war on the separatist Kurds for decades.

The Kosovan opposition is divided on the deal. Ibrahim Rugova, the 'moderate' leader and favourite of the West, is in essence willing to accept the deal's three year 'interim plan' for Kosova. He wants Kosova to become an international protectorate of the West, eventually leading to independence. But independence is not on the agenda: Kosova will remain under Serb rule, any eventual 'self-government' will be less than what existed in Stalinist Yugoslavia, and the right to self-determination is non-existent.

The UCK leadership lambasts the deal and says the only solution is independence. However, they promise no offensive military action while NATO is 'engaged in finding a just solution'. Politically and militarily the UCK have found themselves in a cul-de-sac. The leaders espouse a narrow nationalist and pro-capitalist position. Socialists would mobilise the workers to resist Milosevic with democratically-run militias, allied to a clear programme for socialist change and independence. A solidarity appeal to workers in Serbia and internationally would be made. But the UCK look to reactionary forces abroad and the aid of the Western powers, leaving the door to compromise open.

Although the vast majority of Kosovans recognise the deal as a sell-out, a certain desire for peace and the lack of a viable alternative may give Rugova and Adem Demaci, UCK's leading spokesperson, room to make concessions. A lull in fighting and an agreement would, however, be extremely fragile and short-lived. Hard-liners in the UCK would not accept it and a bloody feud could break out amongst the Albanian opposition.

Another explosive factor is Albania, where the influence of gun-running warlords and the Albanian mafia are powerful. The country's corrupt and authoritarian ex-leader, Sali Berisha, bases himself on the northern clans and cultivates close links to the UCK. Recently he tried to stage a coup against the pro-Western government. Such are the desperate conditions faced by Kosovans, the deal may never take flesh as 'facts on the ground' dictate a different course. Serb attacks have continued. The UCK leadership can be forced back to war and could conduct a largely guerrilla struggle for years. But that will not win lasting peace and an end to impoverishment - the aspirations of the Kosovan masses.

Following decades of oppressive Stalinism, the Balkans have been subjected to capitalist barbarism and wars. Only a genuine socialist confederation of Balkan states, with a workers' democratically-run economy, can fundamentally transform present miserable living conditions and bring real peace.

The first step towards this is the development of independent urban and rural workers' organisations that promote a clear class alternative. Such organisations would link across the borders, struggle to overthrow the reactionary chauvinists and capitalists, and support the right of self-determination for the Kosovan masses. A socialist Kosova would guarantee the rights of the Serb minority, resolving the national question in a humane fashion.