Palestine: a step back from civil war?
PALESTINIAN SOCIETY is disintegrating, with two
processes feeding off each other. One is a burgeoning social and
economic crisis of devastating proportions. This is caused mainly by the
financial strangulation of the Palestinian Authority (PA) by western
imperialist powers and their regional client, Israeli capitalism, as
well as by continuing Israel Defence Force (IDF) attacks in Gaza and the
West Bank. The second is the development of huge tensions between Hamas,
now in government, and its ousted rival, Fatah, resulting in what could
become an open civil war.
Western powers and the Israeli regime have bolstered
these tensions by openly supporting president Mahmoud Abbas and the
Fatah movement. On a recent visit to France, Ehud Olmert, the Israeli
prime minister, commented: "We will do our best in order to give him [Abbas]
the power to lead". (Ynetnews.com, 14 June) Imperialism wants to force
Hamas to accept the right of the Israeli state to exist, implement
previous peace agreements, and announce an indefinite ceasefire.
This is an attempt to entrap the Hamas
administration, to use it to hold back the Palestinian masses who are
increasingly enraged by their suffering. It would be a first step to
forcing Hamas out of government and bringing back Fatah as a senior
partner in a so-called government of national unity, as part of a
US-engineered ‘creeping coup’.
The dramatically worsening situation follows the
January election triumph of Hamas. This was a major blow to US
imperialism’s plans in the region. Rather than choosing a government
which could be cajoled into supporting US interests in the Middle East,
the Palestinian masses voted for Hamas – as far as rhetoric is
concerned, one of the most consistently anti-US imperialism parties in
the PA. The vote was a protest against twelve years of corrupt rule by
Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organisation and their betrayal of
the Palestinian national liberation struggle, rather than conscious
support for Hamas ideology and programme.
Although, currently, Hamas has a better record on
corruption, this does not mean that its election was a step forward for
the Palestinian masses. Despite its anti-imperialist rhetoric, Hamas
policies are fundamentally anti-working class and undemocratic. Its
long-term aim is to create a theocratic state on Gaza and the West Bank.
This would be hostile to workers seeking to take independent action and
would be a big step back for women’s rights. Already, Hamas has cut jobs
and sold off property when it has controlled local councils.
The response of Israel and the western powers has
been to try and create a social and economic crisis which would whip up
popular discontent to such an extent that Hamas would be forced to
resign. Abbas and the Fatah leadership have been willing allies in this
strategy.
Financially, the PA is bankrupt. Its monthly running
costs are around $175m. Just over $35m of this is raised directly by the
PA through taxes; $60m is collected by Israeli border authorities in
taxes and tariffs. The remaining $80m comes through other sources, some
from aid from the European Union (EU), the USA and the Arab world, but
any shortfall has to be raised by selling PA assets and borrowing.
Since Hamas’s victory, all aid has been cut. The
Israeli regime refuses to hand over tax receipts. US imperialism has
halted other aid payments. The main PA bank account in Amman, Jordan,
has been frozen. Emergency aid from the Arab League has not reached its
destination for the same reason. The two Israeli banks which provided
hard currency in the PA have threatened to cut off supplies, as have the
main Israeli petrol companies.
As a result, the economy has ground to a halt.
Families have spent their savings. The Gaza gold market is awash with
customers selling family heirlooms. People queue to sell household
appliances and mobile phones. Telecoms companies report widespread
cut-offs and supermarkets are cutting credit.
The approximately 172,000 PA employees have not been
paid for three months. Conservative estimates suggest that one million
Palestinians are normally supported by these employees. At least 70,000
are members of various security agencies, almost all Fatah members or
ex-members of Fatah militias hostile to the new administration. It is
amongst these layers that armed opposition to Hamas has been built.
In the election aftermath, Abbas attempted to
reassert control of what remained of the PA apparatus: the Palestinian
Monetary Authority, Investment Fund and broadcasting company. Abbas
instructed presidential security forces to take control of border
crossings, previously a government role. In the atmosphere of growing
economic crisis and an international propaganda campaign against the
‘terrorist’ Hamas administration, Mashaal, one of the main Hamas leaders
in exile, accused Fatah of being in league with western imperialist
powers to overthrow the government.
Matters escalated further when the Hamas government
announced on 20 April the formation of the 3,000-strong Executive Force,
a new security force made up mainly of Hamas militiamen. The former
commander of the Popular Resistance Committees (one of the most
anti-Israeli independent militias in the Occupied Territories), Jamal
Samhadana, was placed at its head, seen by Abbas as a calculated
provocation.
In May and June, parts of the West Bank and Gaza
looked like a war-zone as militias traded gunfire. Ten Palestinians were
killed in May and seven in the first ten days of June in tit-for-tat
attacks. If a senior Hamas or Fatah official had been killed, a
full-scale civil war could have begun.
It is this perspective that has forced the Quartet
powers (USA, EU, UN and Russia) to discuss providing $50m emergency aid.
Even this has been done in a way that will increase tensions since the
money will only go to health service workers and be distributed through
presidential offices, not the government.
At times, Palestinian society has teetered on the
brink. The prime minister’s office was torched by Fatah militias and on
a number of cases the Legislative Council (parliament) has been forced
to stop its meetings.
The IDF intervened into this maelstrom, stepping up
military attacks. On 9 June it assassinated the head of the Executive
Force. On the same day, however, it killed seven Palestinian civilians
picnicking on a beach. In two other incidents, a further 13 civilians,
including young children, perished. As a result, Israel’s open support
for Abbas has undermined Fatah’s position even further. The majority of
Palestinians see the present catastrophe as caused by the western
imperialist powers and Israel acting in concert with Abbas and Fatah.
Fatah and Hamas have taken matters to the brink and
then drawn back. But, behind a façade of ‘national unity’ talks, each
side aims to strengthen its position tactically and prepare for future
clashes. Unfortunately, it will be the majority of the population, the
Palestinian working class and poor peasantry who are now observing from
the sidelines, who will suffer if this eventuality comes about.
Abbas used a document signed by representatives of
Hamas and Fatah prisoners on 11 May to attempt to bolster his position.
This document called for a national unity government, for a Palestinian
state based on Israel withdrawing to pre-1967 borders with East
Jerusalem as its capital, and discussions on the right of return of all
refugees. This implies implicit recognition of the Israeli state.
Abbas’s next move was to call a referendum on the prisoners’ document
for the end of July if Hamas refused to agree to its main demands.
There have been rumours that Abbas is pushing for a
millionaire businessman to form a new government but Hamas is unlikely
to agree. It is possible that some agreement will be reached for a
government of national unity which will include Hamas, but with a
smaller number of ministries than it has now. This seems more likely
since the Hamas leadership has reportedly accepted those parts of the
Prisoners’ Initiative which imply recognition of the state of Israel.
The danger has not passed. Both sides have
strengthened their militias and recruited new members. Abbas’s
presidential guard has taken delivery of four US-made armoured vehicles
costing $100,000 each. The Israeli army provided an armed escort for a
convoy from Israel delivering 3,000 US-made M-16 rifles to Abbas’s
security forces in June. Hamas is involved in smuggling arms across the
border from Egypt.
The threat of civil war is directly related to the
absence of a mass independent working-class force in Gaza and the West
Bank which can unite the working class behind it. Building such a
movement, and raising socialist ideas within it, including that of a
socialist confederation of the region, is literally a life and death
question now.
Kevin Simpson
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