Deadlock over Kosovo
SERBIAN AND ethnic Albanian leaders ended a year of
talks on the future of Kosovo (called Kosova by ethnic Albanians), in
mid-March, without reaching agreement on the ‘settlement plan’ drafted
by special UN envoy, Martti Ahtisaari. The former Finnish president said
there was no chance of reaching a compromise. Ethnic Albanian leaders
were broadly in favour of plans, which gave Kosovo the trappings of a
sovereign state without complete independence. Serbian leaders were
strongly opposed. Kosovo is currently under UN administration (Unmik),
installed after Nato’s bombing campaign in 1999, which forced Serbia to
withdraw its forces from its southern ‘province’.
The Ahtisaari plan called for a form of ‘self-rule’
for Kosovo (it does not mention the word ‘independence’). Kosovo would
be given a flag, anthem, constitution, government, parliament and
citizenship. It would be able to negotiate international agreements and
join international organisations. But this status would be supervised
and checked by an ‘International Civilian Representative’, backed up by
an international military presence.
The Ahtisaari plan also claimed it would guarantee
the rights of the remaining Serb minority in Kosovo, including ‘special
protection zones’. Serbian areas would control their own affairs in
health and education, with some funds from the Serbian government in
Belgrade.
"It’s a complicted, messy compromise, sure to leave
everyone unhappy…" wrote Timothy Garton Ash, a commentator on the
Balkans (Guardian, 15 February). Serbs reacted furiously to Ahtisaari’s
settlement proposals. Serbian president, Boris Tadic, called the plan
"unacceptable", and prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, said it violated
international law.
Most ethnic Albanian leaders gave broad backing to
the Ahtisaari document. But many ethnic Albanians are angry. An
‘independence now’ demonstration in February in Pristina, capital of
Kosovo, saw clashes with Kosovo and UN police that left two people dead
and 80 injured.
Garton Ash goes on to say that the "messy"
compromise is "the best one can hope for in the circumstances". This may
be so under capitalism, a system of profit-making, exploitation,
discrimination and injustice, which is incapable of resolving the deep
national, ethnic and religious divisions in the Balkans. But socialists
reject the Ahtisaari proposals. They are not made in the interests of
working people, either ethnic Albanians or Serbs, but in the interests
of Western imperialist powers and big business.
The plans do not meet the aspirations of Kosovo’s
Albanians for self-determination or guarantee the right of the Serb
minority. They will only increase and complicate divisions on the
ground. Minorities will be forced to leave their homes and new
flashpoints and disputes will be created. For example, hard-line
Albanian nationalists resent that Serbs living in Kosovo would get
control over pockets that include Albanian villages, and the Serb
minority would hold veto rights over most legislation.
Further cantonisation and ethnic division of the
Western Balkans is the ‘practical’ solution of imperialism. Capitalist
restoration in the former Yugoslavia meant the bloody break-up of the
country into ‘ethno-nationalist’ states. Only in a democratic, socialist
society, where people’s needs come first, would it be possible for
ethnic Albanians and Serbs to live peacefully together. A planned
economy, under workers’ democratic control and management, would see the
region’s wealth used for the benefit of all working people.
Socialists support the right of Kosovo to decide its
future, free of all imperialist interference. We call for a socialist
Kosovo, and a socialist Serbia, as part of a voluntary socialist
federation of the Balkans. This would guarantee the rights of all
minorities and maximum autonomy for the Serb minority in Kosovo.
The Western powers claimed they went to war in 1999
against the Serbian regime of right-wing nationalist, Slobodan
Milosevic, to stop his repression of Albanians, who make up 90% of the
1.8 million population of Kosovo. Milosevic abolished autonomy in Kosovo
in 1989 and increased repression. Tensions exploded into war and ‘ethnic
cleansing’ in 1999. But the Western powers’ actions were never motivated
by humanitarian concerns or the interests of people in Kosovo. They
acted primarily to stop the Kosovo conflict becoming a general
conflagration and to gain an important geo-political strategic
advantage. Once the Serb army was removed from Kosovo, the Nato troops
mainly stood by when large numbers of Serb civilians fled or were
expelled by reactionary Albanian paramilitaries.
Since 1999, Western powers have run Kosovo like an
old-fashioned ‘protectorate’, in a high-handed and undemocratic manner.
After the failed March talks Ahtisaari announced he will take his plan
to the UN Security Council. In truth, the UN did not expect any
breakthrough in the talks and decided to take decisions ‘on behalf’ of
the people of Kosovo and Serbia. A ‘decision’ will be made by the
six-nation Contact Group on Kosovo and by the Security Council.
However, Kosovo’s future could be an issue of
deadlock between the US, Britain and Germany, on one side, and Russia
and China, on the other side. Russia, a traditional ally of Serbia, is
in the Contact Group, and warned that any decision on Kosovo’s future
must get the approval of the Serbs, as well as the Kosovo Albanians.
Both China and Russia, which are UN Security Council members with a
veto, oppose creating even a ‘virtual’ new country. Russia also
threatens to recognise breakaway provinces in Georgia, led by
pro-Western president, Saakashvili, if the West recognises Kosovo’s
rupture from Serbia.
The US and Britain hope Russia will back down and in
June the EU and G8 will agree on the Ahtisaari plan. If Russia does not
give way, ethnic Albanian leaders threaten a declaration of
independence. This would probably be recognised by the US, Germany and
Britain, who would put pressure on the EU to do the same.
But the EU is divided on the way forward. Spain,
Cyprus and Greece, a neighbouring Balkan country, do not want to impose
a deal. To sweeten the Ahtisaari package, the EU is edging towards
resuming talks with Belgrade on future EU membership.
The big powers’ meddling could trigger violent
conflict in Kosovo. The divided city of Mitrovica is a potential
flashpoint. In March 2004, fighting broke out in the city and spread
across Kosovo.
The US and Britain calculate that most ethnic
Albanians will accept the deal, since it gives them enhanced ‘self-rule’
albeit with ‘international supervision’. But ethnic Albanians want to
control their own affairs and vent anger at occupying Western powers.
‘UN out!’ shouted several thousand during a protest against the UN, in
Pristina, in early March. Increasingly, many ethnic Albanians regard the
Kosovo ‘Provisional Self Government’ and institutions as unaccountable,
corrupt tools of the UN. The Western powers insisted an unelected
five-member negotiating body decided Kosovo’s reaction to Ahtisaari’s
solution.
Serbia nationalists are loath to ‘lose’ Kosovo, an
area included as part of Serbia for most of the last century and which
they regard as central to its history and identity. Although working
people in Serbia are weary of wars and are more concerned about getting
jobs and a decent living, Serb nationalist parties want to keep the
Kosovo issue burning, to divert workers’ discontent.
Many Serbs in Kosovo are weighing whether to move if
the Ahtisaari plans are imposed. It is possible Serbia will hold on to
the northern part of Kosovo where many Serbs are congregated, splitting
Kosovo and not recognising the new arrangements on the ground. This
could lead to renewed conflict, as armed ethnic Albanians try to retain
Kosovo’s current boundaries. Furthermore, most Serbs live in vulnerable
enclaves south of the River Ibar.
Even if the Ahtisaari plans are imposed relatively
peacefully, ethnic divisions do not allow the quick exit for Western
forces some big powers hope for. The EU and US will still "play the role
of arbiter in the divided and economically backward region for years".
(International Herald Tribune, 9 March) Nato makes up most of K-For’s
16,000 troops and intends to keep that strength for the time being. The
EU is due to send hundreds of police personnel to replace the UN force.
The only way out of this mess of ethnic divisions
and endemic poverty is for the working class of Kosovo, ethnic Albanian
and Serb, to unite for better living standards and democratic rights.
Any form of self rule for Kosovo under capitalism will not transform
living standards for the majority, let alone secure long-term peace and
stability. Kosovo holds large coal reserves and rich deposits of gold,
silver, lead, zinc, and petroleum but, under capitalism, this wealth
will be exploited for imperialism and big business.
Through mass class struggles, independent trade
unions and a new party that represents working-class interests could be
built, giving an alternative to the local right-wing parties, the bosses
and imperialism.
Niall Mulholland
|