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Nigeria’s election gravy train
APRIL IS scheduled to see Nigeria go to the polls
for a new president to replace Obasanjo, a new Senate, House of
Representatives, 36 State Governors and 36 State assemblies. The
campaign has been fast and furious. The nomination process even saw gun
battles inside parties. Losing contenders switched parties to get onto
ballot papers. Candidates were disqualified on different pretexts.
Just weeks before the first round of presidential
voting on 21 April it is not certain who the main candidates will be, or
if the voting will go ahead as planned. Obasanjo is backing Umaru Musa
Yar’Adua, outgoing Katsina State governor and one-time ‘left’. Obasanjo
moved might and main to block the current vice-president, Atiku Abubakar,
winning the nomination of the ruling PDP (People’s Democratic Party),
then from standing for the opposition AC (Action Congress). There is a
legal challenge to Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler, running
for a second time for the main opposition party, the northern based ANPP
(All Nigeria People’s Party).
All of them support the capitalist system, although
Buhari is running as an ‘anti-corruption’ candidate. He is remembered
for vicious repression of trade unions and students during his 1984-85
military dictatorship.
There is a striking contrast in the battles between
the candidates and the attitude of most Nigerians. The mass of Nigerians
view the contest with indifference, not because they do not care about
the future, but because these elections generally offer them nothing.
Eight years of civilian rule have not fundamentally
changed the lives of most Nigerians, apart from ending the most brutal
aspects of military rule and the introduction of mobile phones.
Repression continues. A US State Department’s 2006 report stated that
"government officials at all levels continued to commit serious abuses…
the most significant human rights problems included the abridgement of
citizens’ rights to change their government". Between 1999 and 2004 an
estimated one million Nigerians became internal refugees due to communal
clashes and state repression. In Plateau State over 200,000 fled
fighting between February and March 2004.
The Bush government is concerned because it views
West Africa as a new important source of oil. Capitalist strategists
agree that Nigeria is facing potential disaster. Last year the World
Bank listed Nigeria as a "fragile state". Imperialism fears the
destabilising effect that turmoil in Nigeria could spread throughout the
region, let alone the effect on oil supplies. So far the military has
not shown signs of taking control again, mainly out of fear that a new
coup could lead to the country’s break-up.
Potentially one of Africa’s richest countries,
Nigeria is failing to move forward. In the 50 years since it began
exporting oil, Nigerian governments have received $400bn in oil revenue.
Last year, the World Bank reported that 1% of Nigeria’s population
received 80% of its annual oil revenue. In 2006, oil income was $36bn,
its population around 140 million. Therefore the richest 1,400,000
received nearly $29bn, an average of $20,700 each. Nearly 139 million
shared just over $7bn, a $50 average.
However, it is not simply a question of unequal
shares. The Nigerian elite generally takes the money and runs. Given the
imperialist domination of the world economy they do not even try to be
capitalists, rather, they are increasingly looters and speculators. At
best, Nigerian industry is stagnant. According to Nigeria’s Central
Bank, last year industrial capacity utilisation was 25%, and production
is falling.
The vast majority has gained nothing from the surge
in oil prices, unlike the late 1970s and very early 1980s when an oil
boom at least led to a temporary improvement in life for many. This oil
boom has been accompanied by surging inflation, and cutbacks in
education and health services.
This is the background to the brutal election
struggles. For the elite and would-be elite, elections are an
opportunity to secure a position in the state machine and get rich quick
through looting. This is why candidates spend huge amounts of money,
often paying people to vote, hoping to ‘profit’ from their ‘investment’.
If they are not elected, they either switch to the winning parties or
turn to more ‘normal’ criminal activities!
Often, voting has little to do with who is declared
the winner. An international analysis of elections in 2003 estimated
that "results in a third of the states were rigged and in another third
were dubious… as many as ten million voters’ cards had been fraudulently
issued". Obasanjo, then standing for re-election, officially won 99.92%
in Ogun, his home state, 1,365,367 votes. On the same day, however, his
party’s candidate for Ogun State governor got 747,296 votes. This was
explained by people’s ‘enthusiasm’ to re-elect Obasanjo!
The Nigerian working masses and poor can be enthused
when they see a real alternative. Between 2000 and November 2004 there
were seven general strikes and mass movements against Obasanjo’s
policies. These struggles were huge, mobilising the majority behind the
trade unions and labour movement. They showed the potential power that
could change the country. But the union leaders held back. Repeatedly,
struggles were called off, citing minor or non-existent ‘concessions’.
This led to a growing mood for ‘regime and system
change’, which became widespread in the mobilisation for a general
strike scheduled for November 2004. This scared the trade union leaders
even more and they called it off a few hours before it was due to start.
Because of Nigeria’s poor communications, news was slow to get out and
the country stopped on 16 November. Then workers returned to work. This
demoralised the movement, leading to activity dropping off as millions
sought personal solutions to the crises facing them and their families.
In some areas, especially the oil producing Niger Delta, this has
boosted separatist forces, with conditions close to civil war
developing.
Nevertheless, there is still potential for a
movement against the elite. The Democratic Socialist Movement (CWI,
Nigeria) has long been campaigning for the labour movement to form its
own independent political alterative. This was a theme in the address
the DSM was asked to make to February’s conference of the Nigerian
Labour Congress (NLC), the largest trade union centre. (DSM website:
www.socialistnigeria.org) But the union leaders backed away from this
step.
A few years ago the NLC launched a ‘Labour Party’
but it did not really begin to develop until late last year. Then the
NLC’s outgoing president, Adams Oshiomhole, announced that he would
stand as Labour candidate for the Edo State governorship. The DSM had
been calling on Oshiomhole to run for the presidency on a workers’
programme, but nevertheless backed his campaign. Oshiomhole then said he
would stand as AC candidate, a big step back as the AC is one of
Nigeria’s three big capitalist parties. But many workers and poor are
enthusiastic about Oshiomhole’s candidature and he has adopted a radical
call for a ‘peoples’ government’ and mass mobilisation against rigging.
The same cannot be said of other Labour candidates.
This is because they are mostly career capitalist politicians who,
having lost nomination battles in their former parties, suddenly
declared themselves for Labour!
The DSM had been planning to stand in Lagos State on
the banner of the radical National Conscience Party (NCP). The DSM has
played an active part in the NCP since the party’s foundation in 1994,
and led it in Lagos, its largest and most active region. However, this
campaign was beheaded by a manoeuvre by the NCP’s new right-wing
national leadership and the electoral commission. Ever since the party’s
founder, Gani Fawehinmi, stepped down as chair in 2004, the leadership
has shifted rightwards, doing deals with capitalist politicians. NCP
leaders wanted an alliance with Buhari, and the ruling elite did not
want a high-profile DSM-led NCP campaign in Lagos. In 2003, despite
rigging, the DSM-influenced NCP generally came third in Lagos State. A
leading DSM member, Lanre Arogundade, officially won over 77,000 votes,
9.6%, in a Senate constituency in Lagos. In other Lagos elections DSM
members got up to 15%. The elite feared that the Lagos NCP could become
a key force in this city of over ten million.
This means that in Lagos, like most of the country,
there is no clear alternative being offered. The likelihood is that
there will be a low turnout, although a certain swing towards Buhari as
an anti-corruption, ‘lesser evil’ candidate cannot be entirely ruled
out.
While it is unclear what will follow the elections,
it is certain that there will not be a stable upward development. The
IMF has confirmed plans for yet another fuel price rise which will
further cut living standards. The experience of another rigged election
will put the question of struggle back on the agenda. That raises the
issue of the labour movement learning from the experiences of 2000-04
and being able, as the DSM argues, to build a real working peoples’
alternative. Without this Nigeria faces an uncertain future.
Robert Bechert
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