Northern Ireland stalemate
THE ‘POWER-SHARING’ Northern Ireland executive (the
governing cabinet) has not met since the middle of June. It faces a
logjam over a series of difficult issues. In any other advanced
capitalist country, the government would collapse if its executive was
incapable of meeting for three months. Imagine the consequences if
Gordon Brown or Brian Cowen (Irish prime minister) were unable to
convene a cabinet meeting for three months. And imagine the consequences
if their ministers spent those months gutting each other in the press
every day of the week!
A complete collapse of the executive is unlikely in
the short term but prolonged paralysis on the key issues is the
present-day reality and probable future of the executive. This situation
cannot continue indefinitely.
From the beginning of the so-called peace process,
the Socialist Party has argued that no lasting solution could be found
on the basis of an uneasy compromise between sectarian politicians. The
Socialist Party also argued, however, that the relative peace ushered in
by the paramilitary ceasefires in 1994 would open up possibilities for
the development of class politics and greater working-class unity. This
opportunity will not last forever.
It is now 40 years since 5 October 1968, when civil
rights supporters were battened off the streets of Derry. This event is
commonly taken as the start of the Troubles. Despite the paramilitary
ceasefires, then the signing of the Good Friday agreement in 1998,
violence has continued. In every year since 1968 there have been deaths
due to political and sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, including
this year. Sectarian division on the ground remains and, in 2008, new
‘peace lines’ are still being created in Belfast.
At some point things will get worse. While there is
almost no support in Catholic working-class areas for a return to war,
at this time, and the dissident (republican) groups are still small and
relatively isolated, there is little doubt that they are growing in
strength and confidence. Both the Real IRA and Continuity IRA are
attempting to kill a member of the PSNI (Police Service of Northern
Ireland) and, sooner or later, they will likely succeed.
If they do, it could precipitate a political crisis.
Imagine the scenario: the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) calls for
internment and shoot-to-kill, implying that Sinn Féin knows who is
behind the attacks and could hand suspects over to the police if it so
chose. Sinn Féin denies this, denounces any return to severe repression,
but continues to call for people to go to the PSNI with information on
the dissidents, thus further undermining its own credibility with young
Catholics. If, by then, policing has been devolved to Stormont (the seat
of local government) the storm generated by the killing of a police
officer will be even greater.
This does not mean that Sinn Féin’s electoral base
would disappear or even be seriously dented initially. As throughout the
last 40 years, the lack of a credible mass working-class party means
that there is no electoral alternative and, at this stage, a lot of
working-class people may not bother to vote.
However, opposition to Sinn Féin in its heartlands
is growing. This opposition is not just based on its perceived failure
to deliver on the national question. Large numbers of Sinn Féin voters
are disappointed by its failure to deliver on its promises on social and
economic issues.
As things stand, the dissident groupings are poised
to garner more support, especially among young people. Sinn Féin is
increasingly regarded as part of the establishment. Senior figures in
the republican movement, including those with an IRA background, no
longer hold sway on the ground in the way that they did over two
generations.
There has been a period of relative peace since the
severe riots in Protestant areas in October 2005, and last summer was
relatively quiet. But there have been recent outbreaks of rioting in
Belfast and Craigavon town. The rioting in Craigavon in late August was
clearly orchestrated by Republican dissidents. They would have had no
luck in sparking such rioting, however, if there was not a mood of
alienation and anger among young people in the area.
But such a descent into sectarian conflict is not
inevitable. The increase in sectarianism is on the basis that there is
no alternative. Another way out is possible. If there was a party to
represent working-class people, and which offered a socialist
alternative to sectarianism and recession, it could tap into the deep
disillusionment in working-class communities, both Catholic and
Protestant.
That is why the responsibility on the shoulders of
the trade union leaders is so great. Instead of standing back and
supporting the sectarian-based political parties in the assembly (the
local parliament), they should now take immediate steps towards building
a working-class party capable of challenging their right-wing policies.
Ciaran Mulholland
Socialist Party (CWI Ireland)
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