Pakistan floods raise spectre of social
unrest
SHAHBAZ SHARIF, the chief
minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in the
largest province, Punjab, continues to warn the ruling classes and rich
of Pakistan of a backlash from the rural poor affected by the
devastating floods. Other politicians, and serious capitalist
commentators and intellectuals, are also warning the ruling elite about
possible unrest and violent protests and marches.
The more serious far-sighted
sections of the ruling elite are worried about the situation and what
the future holds. There are small-scale protests and demonstrations
already taking place in most of the flood-affected areas. They can feel
the growing anger and discontent of the poor masses. They are also
blaming each other for this situation, which is becoming potentially
more dangerous with every passing day. The situation was not very
optimistic for the ruling elite before the floods. Now the floods have
made the situation more complicated and explosive.
Nearly a month after floods
that devastated one fifth of the country and hit at least 20 million
people, the spectre of social unrest and polarisation are stalking the
nation. Torrential rains have had a catastrophic impact on people. The
consequential economic losses could see the country default on an IMF
loan and leave eight million people dependent on aid for survival. There
is mounting anger against the government.
Survivors camping out in
miserable conditions – up to ten million still without shelter – have
staged angry protests against the government, shutting main highways.
The devastation of farmland and transport links mean that food prices
have rocketed, fanning frustration among the masses. People have
suffered an electricity crisis for years – but now the floodwaters have
forced power stations to close, exacerbating energy cuts and leaving
entire communities without power.
Alienation towards the
government has increased and, in the long run, can result in massive
internal instability, widespread unrest and social disintegration, if a
socialist alternative is not embraced by the working class and the poor.
The reactionary pro-capitalist opposition could capitalise on this
situation in the long-term. Reactionary religious extremists could move
to fill the political vacuum that already exists in society, if the
working-class movement fails to build an alternative platform of
struggle.
The government hangs by a
thread. If the opposition parties decide to join the protests, the
unrest could bring the government down. If the clashes between the
protesters and government get out of control, the military could be
compelled to move in to try and ‘pacify’ the protest movement. The
Al-Qaeda-linked reactionary groups and other Islamic extremist forces
also can take advantage of the situation and make big gains. This all
depends on the balance of forces at critical conjunctures. The role of
the working class will be decisive.
So far, former prime minister
Nawaz Sharif and his PML-N have yet to agitate en masse against the
government. As the PML-N heads the provincial government in Punjab, one
of the worst hit areas, it could also come unstuck over the disaster. In
Muzafar Garh, one of the worst-affected districts of southern Punjab,
officials openly admit it is beyond their capability to reach out to the
2.5 million local victims. People are blocking roads and highways,
looting food trucks and protesting at not getting relief. The situation
could easily get out of control at some point, most likely when the
reconstruction phase starts as the floods recede.
In Sindh province, where
flooding has ravaged valuable rice and cotton crops and killed
livestock, the adviser to the chief minister and renowned economist,
Qaisar Bengali, acknowledged the dangers: "There is a great social risk.
Food prices are really high, lots of crops have been destroyed and lots
of cattle died, so if we do not pay attention to these issues, there
will be huge demonstrations. Pakistan is so fragile that the government
can be threatened as soon as there is social unrest. It is less a matter
of the government than a matter of the stability of the state".
Concerns have been widely
raised that in the long-term religious charities, which are exploiting
the aid vacuum to provide welfare, could flourish in some areas and
increase their influence in the local communities. Qaisar Bengali
stated: "People will say religious groups deliver, the state does not,
and so the power of the mosque and of the religious schools will get
stronger".
The majority of the Pakistani
population still lives in rural areas, where enormous widespread social
inequalities persist. Poverty in rural Pakistan is still strongly
correlated with landlessness. Almost 70% of the rural population has no
land, while a minuscule percentage of large landowners control a major
proportion of cultivable land. This explains why so many poor farmers
accept crop sharing agreements whereby they give away half of their
produce to a landowner, just for getting access to a piece of land.
But recent research indicates
that land distribution patterns have been changing for the worse.
Besides continued concentration of land in a few hands, there is a
reduction in the total area given out to sharecroppers. The demand for
capital-intensive cash crops and the growing influence of the
multinational agricultural business interests may be factors behind this
trend. It is, nonetheless, a cause of greater problems and stress for
the rural poor. Many rural families are now making ends meet by
livestock rearing, sending family members to find work in cities, or
working as daily wage labourers for measly wages.
Two previous governments, led
by General Ayub Khan and Zulifqar Ali Bhutto, in the 1960s and 1970s,
tried to undertake half-hearted land reforms and redistribution
measures. Yet both these attempts had hardly any impact on
redistribution of land holdings. And after the judiciary decided against
the need for land reforms back in the early 1980s, the motivation and
justification for introducing further reforms dissipated.
Moreover, the government’s
continued inability to administer justice and provide other basic
services, like clean drinking water, sanitation, quality schooling and
health facilities, mean the standard of life in most rural areas is
worsening. Improved irrigation, fertilizers, seed varieties and major
subsidies for agricultural products have mostly benefited the rich
instead of the poor and landless farmers. Bank lending has been made
available mostly to big landlords and while micro-credit schemes are
reaching out to the poor, they too charge high interest rates to the
poorest of the poor.
Even the imperialist
institutions like the World Bank admit that the continued concentration
of land and power among a very small class of landowners is the cause of
major social friction. But their proposed solutions are concerned with
the use of market mechanisms and neo-liberal economic policies to induce
growth through liberalising the agriculture sector, so as not to disrupt
the global trade regime.
The social costs of failing
to introduce reforms have often led to peasant uprisings and civil war
on a local scale. Pakistan is now moving in that direction at an
increasing pace. The floods have washed away the dreams of better life
and prosperity.
Millions of peasants,
agricultural workers and small farmers are suffering because the
capitalist class in Pakistan failed to eradicate feudalism and big land
holdings. No serious effort was made to abolish landlordism and carry
through progressive land reforms. Instead, respective military and
civilian governments tried to strengthen the decaying feudal and tribal
system. Eradication of feudalism and capitalism will free millions of
people from the poverty trap, and the hunger and slavery which are the
reality of life today.
Joint struggle of workers and
peasants and the rural and urban poor is needed to overthrow the
decaying capitalist and feudal system and to replace it with the only
just system, socialism. Socialism is based on the needs of the people
and not on the profits of the big companies. Socialism works for the
millions and not for the millionaires and super rich. It is a system
free of exploitation, repression and wars.
Khalid Bhatti, Socialist Movement Pakistan
This is an edited version of
a fuller article published on the CWI website
