Northern Ireland: flag dispute exposes limits of the peace process

Turmoil over the issue of flying the union flag of the UK continues across Northern Ireland. The almost daily protests, roadblocks and frequent rioting began on 3 December when Belfast city council voted to fly the flag over the city hall on 18 ‘designated days’ only, rather than 365 days a year. CIARAN MULHOLLAND reports.

ON SOME NIGHTS in Belfast as many as 80 roads have been blocked. More than 100 police officers have been injured in rioting. The police have used water cannon and fired potentially lethal plastic bullets. Over 100 protesters have been arrested. On 11 January protesters launched a wave of roadblocks dubbed ‘operation standstill’ which effectively brought Belfast to a halt for two hours with nearly all buses off the road. On 12 January the fiercest rioting yet left 29 police injured.

The fact that protests have continued has confounded many observers and politicians. It is true that the numbers involved have decreased. The largest marches to the city hall have involved 1,000 or 2,000 protesters, but most roadblocks in local areas have drawn far fewer onto the streets. According to the Police Service of Northern Ireland, 4,000 took part in the roadblocks on 12 January. Some have pointed to the relatively small numbers involved – compared, for example, to the 200,000 who demonstrated against the Anglo-Irish Agreement outside the city hall in 1985 – as evidence that the issue is only of concern to a layer of Protestant diehards who want to go back to the past.

It has also been pointed out that the rioting has been confined to a few areas. This is true to an extent. The worst violence has occurred in East Belfast, where the local Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) appears to be acting independently of its central leadership. There has been rioting in a number of other areas, however, especially Carrickfergus and Newtownabbey.

It is not just nationalist politicians who have tried to minimise the extent of the disquiet in Protestant areas. Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader and first minister, Peter Robinson, has stated that the protestors now only represent a "thin layer of unionism". Robinson’s party played an important role in kicking-off the trouble when it and the second largest unionist party, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), together circulated 40,000 leaflets on the flag issue in the run-up to the city council vote. Now the leaders of the main unionist parties are trying to regain control of the situation. They are desperate to play simultaneously the card of sectarian division, in order to maintain their votes, but also the role of responsible bourgeois politicians seeking to provide stability and social peace.

In a similar way, the newspaper which is most widely read in both the Protestant and Catholic communities, the Belfast Telegraph, has argued that Northern Ireland is being "held to ransom" by the renegade East Belfast UVF commander. The Telegraph, to an extent, represents the views of the business owners of Belfast who are concerned that their profits are being hit by the unrest as shoppers stay away.

Power sharing – and sharing out poverty

TO PLAY DOWN the significance of what is happening is to completely misread or deliberately misrepresent the situation. While the total numbers involved are relatively small there is no doubt that the issue has acted as a lightning rod for widespread dissatisfaction with the peace process which has built up over time in the Protestant community. There is real and genuine anger among large layers of Protestants. There is a sense that ‘everything is going in one direction’: that is, that Protestants are losing out to Catholics. In the view of many, Sinn Féin is pushing too hard for concessions. Progressive Unionist Party (PUP – linked to the UVF) leader, Billy Hutchinson, has argued: "Sinn Féin is acting outside the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement", signed in 1998.

This is the reason that the PUP has given for reversing its previous conciliatory approach on the flags issue. A banner displayed in the Mount Vernon area, where Hutchison works as a community worker, proclaims ‘North Belfast Against Cultural Apartheid’. This confused slogan does touch on a certain truth. Sectarian forces on both sides are essentially in favour of what might be termed ‘cultural apartheid’, or a sharp division between the two communities. Ironically, those who erected the banner are as much in favour of this division as those they criticise.

Extreme right-winger, Jim Allister, of the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), has condemned Sinn Féin’s "aggressive cultural war". Allister’s party is small, but this assertion rings true for many more Protestants than those who are prepared to support him directly. Many Protestants, even among the majority who do not belong to the Orange Order and similar organisations, feel that their ‘right to march’ has been curtailed too often and in too many places. They feel that they are often prevented from expressing their cultural identity, for example, through the wearing of poppies around Armistice Day. Many also feel that the economic and social benefits of peace have gone overwhelmingly to Catholics.

At the same time, many Catholics continue to believe that they are subject to sectarian discrimination. They hold that they are dealt with more harshly by the police, and that they are more likely to be poor and unemployed than Protestants. For historic reasons, geographic placement and because of the residues of sectarian discrimination, there are still differences between the two communities in economic terms. The poverty rate among Protestants, 19%, is lower than the 26% rate for Catholics. In the three years to 2010, on average, 28% of working-age Protestants were not in paid work, compared with 35% of Catholics.

The views expressed in each community are sometimes true, or partially true. Sometimes, however, genuinely held beliefs simply are untrue. The reason that such a complex situation can arise is that there are genuine, interwoven grievances on both sides. The real problem is that the peace process has failed to deliver for working-class or young people, whatever their background.

The peace process has failed to overcome the underlying causes of conflict because, under capitalism, genuine peace and real economic advancement for working people are not possible. Under the structures established by the Good Friday Agreement it is assumed that everyone belongs to one or other of two mutually exclusive communities. Under capitalism, all that is possible is a sharing out of political power, and a sharing out of poverty and unemployment.

While all sections of the Protestant community have been affected by the flag issue it finds its sharpest expression in the most deprived working-class areas. The rioting and the roadblocks are in part a distorted form of class anger directed at the unionist political establishment represented in the legislative assembly and its executive.

Ulster People’s Forum

IT IS IMPORTANT to identify the underlying causes when any particular issue erupts onto the streets in Northern Ireland. It is also important to distinguish between those who join protests out of a sense of betrayal and anger, and the forces which are consciously reactionary and are seeking to take the working class back to a bleak past.

While the protests have been in large part spontaneous, and have been mainly organised through social media, a leadership has emerged which is attempting to assert itself. On 3 January the Ulster People’s Forum (UPF) was launched to represent this new layer. Willie Frazer was elected as its spokesman. Frazer has been a strident voice for loyalism for some years, especially in rural areas. He came to prominence through the organisation Families Acting for Innocent Relatives, and the ‘Love Ulster Campaign’. In the recent past, he has been associated with the TUV. The possibility of Frazer standing in the Mid-Ulster by-election (caused by the resignation from his Westminster seat of Martin McGuinness, Sinn Féin deputy first minister) has now been raised.

The UPF has adopted two key demands: "A return to direct rule because of the failing of our political representatives"; and "The union flag to be flown from every council building across Northern Ireland". Such strident demands are designed to put pressure on the mainstream unionist parties (the Democratic Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party) and to carve out a base for Frazer and his allies. A return to direct rule in the short term is very unlikely, though the flag issue, and other issues such as conflict around contentious parade routes, are causing tension in the Stormont executive.

One possible scenario is an unfolding picture of elements of rural reaction, represented by the likes of Frazer, linking up with urban dissident loyalism. It is possible that a new paramilitary formation will appear over time, gradually replacing the burnt-out and bought-off leadership of a previous generation – many of the older layer of paramilitary leaders are now government-paid ‘community workers’. It seems likely that the mainstream UVF is also recruiting and may take a more belligerent approach in the coming period. Such a development would cut across any support for a new paramilitary grouping.

The UPF has counter-posed itself to the Unionist Forum convened by the DUP and UUP, and which also involves the PUP and the Ulster Political Research Group, linked to the Ulster Defence Association. The Unionist Forum met for the first time on 10 January and established eight working groups. It is a transparent attempt by the DUP and UUP to gain control of what is a confused and fluid situation.

Shifting political landscape

MANY UNIONIST POLITICIANS have argued that the mobilisation of sufficient numbers of Protestant voters will reverse the flag decision. Some have taken this argument further and raised the question of unionist unity or a single unionist party. Such unity may amount to little more than the DUP swallowing the UUP almost whole. The UUP has been in very serious difficulty for some time. It seems inevitable that it will lose one of its members of the legislative assembly, Basil McCrea, in the near future, and probably a second, John McAllister. They could join the Alliance Party, may continue as independents or establish a new ‘liberal’ unionist grouping.

The Ulster Volunteer Force-linked Progressive Unionist Party has had a very high profile throughout the protests. It seems likely that the PUP will gain electorally as a result, but the degree to which this occurs remains to be seen. It is reported that it has had an influx of new members. One of the most prominent and articulate leaders of the protests, Johnny Harvey, previously a spokesman for the new group, Ulster Protestant Voice, announced on 10 January that he is joining the PUP.

The PUP is resisting moves towards unionist unity which would inevitably disadvantage smaller parties. On 8 January ex-prisoner Winston Rea read a prepared statement on Radio Ulster which appeared to represent the views of the UVF and a linked paramilitary group, the Red Hand Commando. He stated that the Unionist Forum represents a way forward but that he and those he represents are in favour of "unionist cooperation", not unionist unity. He distanced himself from the Ulster People’s Forum without attacking the grouping. Hutchinson has stated clearly that the PUP is not in favour of an agreed unionist candidate in East Belfast.

The PUP is displaying a new confidence. It is strident on sectarian issues and is shortly to announce a programme of "cultural counter-attack" and "re-Britification". Simultaneously, it constantly raises issues of class, pointing out that all working-class people are suffering.

The Traditional Unionist Voice might have been expected to gain from the flag controversy but it has not been prominent. The party’s main base is in rural areas rather than in Belfast. It is increasingly seen as a one-man band, although its leader, Jim Allister, makes a considerable impact in the assembly. The TUV, however, has been damaged as one of its most prominent members, ex-rugby international David Tweed, has been convicted of child sex offences. This may have made it more difficult for the TUV to gain traction.

The Alliance Party has gained marginally in recent elections. Its victory in the East Belfast Westminster seat at the last general election was in large part accidental, however. Thousands of Protestant working-class voters lined up behind the Alliance Party in order to deliver a bloody nose to Peter Robinson who was mired in a corruption scandal at the time.

At the next election most of this borrowed vote will be lost. Instead, the Alliance Party may gain Catholic votes, who could switch from Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) in order to keep a unionist candidate out. It may also gain from any splintering of the UUP vote, if not the actual disintegration of the party itself. In the event of its demise, the UUP vote will go in two directions, with the largest part going to the increasingly monolithic DUP and a smaller segment to the Alliance Party.

Possibility of increased conflict

WHILE MOST OF the rioting has involved Protestant youths battling with the police, there have been a number of clashes between Catholics and Protestants. These have been particularly sharp at the flashpoint where loyalists returning from city-centre protests pass the Catholic Short Strand area. Dissident republican paramilitaries have consciously intervened to stoke the fires of sectarian division, ‘offering’ to ‘defend’ the Short Strand. One dissident paramilitary group, the Continuity IRA, has warned the Ulster People’s Forum not to hold a planned demonstration in Dublin. Dissidents tried to kill a police officer with an under-car bomb in East Belfast over Christmas. This attack nearly ‘succeeded’ – not only in killing the policeman but also his wife and children. Had that happened, the situation would probably now be much worse.

The SDLP and Sinn Féin do not issue physical threats or launch violent attacks. Instead, both parties encourage Catholics to view this issue as a simple one of ‘democracy’, often employing strident and sectarian language. In their view, Belfast is now a majority Catholic or nationalist city and, consequently, the union flag should come down. An extension of this argument is that, across Northern Ireland, the union flag should come down as each council falls to nationalism. This reflects the argument that demographic change is inexorably moving in one direction. At a certain point, a tipping point will be reached and the majority of the population of Northern Ireland will be Catholic. Sinn Féin essentially holds that Protestants should ‘accept reality’ and ‘move on’.

This line of argument displays a profound amnesia. For three generations Catholics in Northern Ireland refused to recognise the ‘democracy’ of Northern Ireland. In their view, they had been coerced into an artificial statelet and they would not bow down and accept this situation. They were perfectly justified in this stance. Why now do nationalist and republican politicians assume that Protestants must accept the formal democracy of losing their majority position in the North which, on the basis of capitalism, raises real fears among working-class Protestants that they will, over time, become a disadvantaged, discriminated against new minority community?

The direction of events is difficult to call. It is most likely that the intensity of demonstrations will continue to diminish, in part because of opposition from many workers to the violence and partly because the aim of the protests – the flag going back up over Belfast city hall all year round – is widely accepted to be unachievable. The Unionist Forum may provide a talking shop for a period and draw some support away from the protests.

However, a slow process of dwindling protests is not a guaranteed outcome. If a young Protestant is killed during rioting, perhaps by a plastic bullet fired by the police, or if dissidents succeed in killing a soldier or police officer in one of their intermittent attacks, then the conflict will ratchet up again. It is also possible that the protests may continue at a low level for many more weeks and, in time, intersect with conflict around contentious parade routes – the ‘marching season’ commences at Easter in early April.

Alternatively, other unexpected developments may inject new life into the protests. The UPF has suggested that its protests may take "new forms", for example, seeking to prevent Gaelic Athletic Association supporters from attending matches. Such moves would be highly provocative and could raise the present conflict to an entirely new pitch. Even if the immediate issue recedes and the protests die down, however, a legacy of bitterness and distrust will be left.

Action against the cutbacks

THE PICTURE IS in many ways bleak but this can change, and change quickly. Only one force is capable of cutting across any drift towards increased division and conflict: the working class acting as a class. The trade unions remain the most significant unifying force in Northern Ireland. The lesson of the last 40 years is that the working class, acting collectively and in unison, can make a real impact on events. This applies to industrial and economic issues, of course, but also to the issues which have threatened to tear society apart. An upsurge in class struggle could cut across recent developments decisively. It is also possible that a certain increase in class struggle may go alongside continuing conflict and tension.

Against the current background of conflict, sectarian politicians continue to impose cuts on all workers. Northern Ireland will be hit harder than anywhere else by cuts in welfare payments as the economic inactivity rate for those aged 16-64 stands at 26.9%. This is significantly higher than the UK average (22.4%) and is the highest of the twelve UK regions. The abolition of the public-sector body which is responsible for housing, the Housing Executive, was announced by Democratic Unionist Party minister, Nelson McCausland, on 9 January. The assembly continues its deliberations over the future of the educational maintenance allowance (EMA) but clearly intends to make sharp cuts in this vital allowance, with an announcement probable around Easter.

Working-class opposition to the cuts has already been expressed on the streets and in the workplaces. Late 2010 saw a student movement against rises in tuition fees and attacks on the EMA. On 26 March 2011 there was a trade union demonstration against the cuts in Belfast. Unison members in Northern Ireland walked out on 5 October 2011. Most importantly, on 30 November 2011, over two million workers belonging to 28 unions walked out across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The impact of the strike was the greatest in Northern Ireland, where 80,000 workers came out, as the public sector is larger and because transport workers joined the strike.

Since 30 November there has been a prolonged lull in the class struggle. Industrial action directed against not just the Con-Dem coalition government in London but also against the coalition which is implementing the cuts at Stormont will help forge unity between working-class communities and will challenge the sectarian parties. It is not sufficient, however, to simply wait for industrial action on social and economic issues.

The role of the unions

THERE IS NO doubt that the vast majority of workers and young people are opposed to the violence. There is a widespread sense of unease that Northern Ireland is being dragged back to its more violent past. In each community there are many who are consciously anti-sectarian and who see clearly the role of the sectarian politicians. The majority of both Catholics and Protestants, however, are divided on the issue of the union flag.

So far there has not been an opportunity for the working class as a whole to give voice to its opposition to the violence. There have been two ‘peace’ demonstrations in Belfast city centre each drawing crowds of about 1,000. The organisers have insisted that the protests are non-political. Such an approach will not succeed in mobilising working-class people from either community. The issues are very much political. The trade union movement is the only force which is capable of mobilising both Protestants and Catholics in a way that gives confidence that the issues which they face, as well as their aspirations and fears, are recognised and are being addressed. Above all, that means seeking to unite working-class people in opposition to their shared misery.

Twenty years ago the Socialist Party pioneered an approach on the issue of contentious parades which focused on recognising the rights of each community, but also on the over-arching right of the working class as a whole not to be dragged into conflict. At the height of the conflict around the Drumcree parade in the mid-1990s our voice was isolated. Nevertheless, we took our arguments to the eye of the storm, speaking to groups on the Garvaghy Road in Portadown and the Bogside in Derry. Over time the approach we advocated became widely accepted. A similar approach should be taken now.

There are real and genuine grievances in deprived Protestant working-class communities, such as in the Lower Newtownards area. There has been a series of clashes on the peace-line between this area and the similarly deprived Catholic Short Strand. While residents of the Newtownards Road have the right to protest over the flag issue, the residents of the Short Strand have the right to live their lives free from harassment and attack. At present, they are left in an exposed position on a regular basis as poorly stewarded and provocative marches come past their front doors.

What is a problem now in this area has the potential to spread across Belfast to dozens of other interface areas. Hoping that this does not happen is not enough. The trade union movement has to weigh up how and when it can intervene to cut across a drift towards greater conflict. Such an intervention is not easy and should not be approached in a light-minded fashion. A clumsy or ill-thought-through initiative could even make things worse, especially if it resulted in the unions being portrayed as taking one or the other side in a sectarian conflict. Equally, it is of vital importance that the unions do not in any way appear to bolster the position of sectarian politicians who are part of the problem not part of the solution.

Despite the immense difficulties, an opportunity for the union movement to intervene may present itself in the coming days. The moment may be a result of a sudden worsening of the situation, for example if a death occurs or, alternatively, in the context of sectarian forces losing momentum. Discussions among active trade unionists should begin immediately so that activists are well-placed to act when necessary.

The unions are best placed to bring together workers in the workplaces and communities to discuss contentious issues, as well as burning class questions. Where possible, they could initiate cross-community, anti-sectarian committees that can counter sectarianism, including sectarian attacks on either community, and offer a class alternative. While all communities have the right to defend themselves it is only such joint initiatives, acting across the peace-lines, which can offer real defence.

To date, the unions, through the Northern Ireland Committee of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, have simply issued a statement on the flag protests. This statement is not adequate to the situation and lacks sensitivity and a rounded-out understanding of the issue. The lack of a clear and resolute leadership from the unions in the struggle against austerity, and their refusal to move in the direction of providing a political alternative to the sectarian parties, worsen the situation for working-class people.

A growing layer of workers and young people are completely disillusioned with the main parties. The constituency with the lowest turnout in recent elections is East Belfast, precisely the area with the worst rioting. Many of those who stayed at home are repulsed by sectarian politics. However, if a political alternative is not built, then reactionary, sectarian groups can develop further and gain support. A new party of the working class, which actively combats sectarianism, is urgently needed.