US presidential election
Nader’s anti-war challenge
George W Bush is in serious trouble. The ghost of his
father, a triumphant war-president who was defeated in his re-election bid,
haunts the White House. Junior’s approval ratings are now down to 42%, the
lowest in his presidency, with 51% disapproving of Bush’s overall performance as
president. PHILIP LOCKER from Socialist Alternative, reports from the USA.
THE CATASTROPHE IN Iraq is the main factor pulling Bush
down. The June New York Times/CBS poll that gave Bush his lowest rating yet in
his presidency shows that 60% in the US believe the Iraq war was not worth
fighting: 40% think the US troops should be withdraw from Iraq ‘as soon as
possible’. Just 15% said the Bush administration had told the entire truth about
abuses at the Abu Ghraib prison, with 79% believing they were hiding something
or mostly lying. Support for Bush’s handling of the ‘war on terrorism’, Bush’s
only ‘strong point’, has fallen to 52%, down from 90% following September 11.
Anger against Bush runs far deeper than the Iraq war.
Despite the talk of an economic ‘recovery’, most Americans do not see any real
economic gains in their lives: 57% say the country is going in the wrong
direction.
Despite these developments, John Kerry and the Democratic
Party are not coasting to an easy victory over Bush. Kerry has not gained
substantially from the collapse in support for the Iraq war and Bush – the
presidential race remains extremely close. Representing the same fundamental
big-business interests as the Republicans, Kerry has not seriously challenged
Bush or presented a real alternative to the right-wing agenda dominating US
politics.
Once Kerry secured the Democratic nomination he swiftly
slanted his rhetoric to the right, highlighting his centrist credentials and
reassuring big business that he is a ‘safe’ candidate. New York Times
columnist David Brooks described Kerry’s strategy in an article very aptly
titled ‘Right Face, March!’: "John Kerry is… the policy twin of Joe Lieberman: a
pro-trade, fiscally conservative centrist Democrat who is willing to pour more
troops into Iraq to win the war. [Kerry is playing] the quadrennial game that
smart nominees play: Shaft the Left. Kerry now vows to cap federal spending and
reduce the size of government. He’s proposed a reduction in the corporate tax
rate. Kerry now insists he is not ‘a redistributionist Democrat.’ He flees from
the word ‘liberal’." (4 May)
One place where Kerry’s Bush-lite policies have been gaining
support is within the circles of the ruling elite. In a clear indication of
increased big-business support, from March until May, Kerry raised almost twice
as much as Bush - $100 million to $55 million.
Kerry strategists, realising their conservative strategy has
gone too far, pushed Kerry to choose John Edwards as his vice-presidential
running mate. Edwards ran in the Democratic primaries by appealing to workers by
using populist rhetoric. Selecting Edwards suggests that Kerry may begin to use
more populist rhetoric in an attempt to reach out to workers and left-wing
voters. His ‘two America’s’ rhetoric aside, however, Edwards is a conservative
Democrat who voted for the wars on Afghanistan and Iraq, the civil-liberties
shredding, racist Patriot Act, and who supports the death penalty and opposes
universal healthcare and same-sex marriage rights.
The majority of Kerry’s support comes from the tens of
millions of Americans who are desperate to oust Bush from the White House. Many
of them view Kerry with skepticism or even hostility, but they intend to vote
for ‘Anybody But Bush’. They support Kerry because they believe he is the
candidate most likely to defeat Bush.
An anti-corporate insurgency
DESPITE THE anti-Bush rally around Kerry, the support of
millions for Ralph Nader’s independent, anti-war, anti-corporate, pro-worker
campaign reveals that a important minority is looking for an alternative to the
two parties of big business and war. Since launching his campaign, Nader’s
support has steadily grown to 5-8% in various polls. Despite the prevailing
wisdom among media pundits and the liberal-left that the strong ‘Anybody But
Bush’ mood would render support for Nader completely insignificant or at least
below the 2.7% he received in 2000, Nader is actually polling higher than at the
same stage in the 2000 presidential campaign.
Nader, a left-wing populist (who appeals to ‘the people’ or
‘citizens’, rather than the working class), is running an insurgent campaign
that challenges big business and the two-party system. Nader’s platform speaks
to ordinary people, advancing a host of radical demands: opposing the Iraq war
and occupation; repealing the Patriot Act; creating millions of jobs through
public works programs; a $10/hour minimum wage; universal single-payer
healthcare; expansion of workers’ rights and repealing the anti-union
Taft-Hartley Act; same-sex marriage rights; abolition of the death penalty; and
lowering the voting age to 16.
These demands stand in sharp contrast to the pro-big
business line of the Democrats and the political hollowness of the labor leaders
and Anybody But Bush liberals. "Politics is broken in this country. They put a
‘For sale’ sign on many offices in Congress and government departments. And as a
result, the necessities of the people are not being met. We have 47 million
workers that work full time [and] don’t make a living wage, they work at
Wal-Mart wages. We have 45 million… who don’t have health insurance. The
environment is still being devastated. And giant corporations just have turned
Washington into corporate-occupied territory" (Ralph Nader, interview on Meet
the Press, 4 July).
Nader remorselessly denounces the corporate domination of
the political system, stating "we don’t have free elections in this country. We
have one corporate party with two heads wearing different make up going through
an auction system, selling our elections and our government to the highest
bidders".
This hard-hitting, anti-corporate message is striking a
chord with millions of workers and young people. Anti-corporate feeling has
grown dramatically in the past few years, most spectacularly with the wave of
Enron-like corporate scandals in 2002. There is deep resentment at the gross
accumulation of wealth in the hands of big business and the super rich, while
workers’ wages stagnate, debt grows, and healthcare becomes ever more
inaccessible.
But the key factors driving Nader’s growing support are the
war in Iraq and the conservative character of Kerry’s campaign. Deeply
compromised by his corporate policies and his support for the Iraq war, Kerry
has been unable to seriously gain from the collapse in public support for the
war and for Bush. Meanwhile, Nader has increasingly brought to the fore his
anti-war stance and call for a full withdrawal of US troops and corporations
from Iraq.
"As the news from Iraq gets even worse, Nader… could become
the candidate of choice for the most hard-core anti-war voters, who may see
little difference between John Kerry’s stay-the-course approach and Bush’s.
‘Unlike 2000, Nader now has a single issue that can fuel him’, says a worried
Democratic official. Party strategists also say they are seeing signs that Nader
is drawing some support from the kind of anti-Washington voters who flocked to
Ross Perot in 1992". (Time Magazine, 24 May)
Discontent with Kerry is rife among large sections of
supporters of Howard Dean and Dennis Kucinich (left-liberal candidates in the
Democratic primaries) and other left-wing voters, with growing numbers going
over to Nader. An editorial in the Seattle Times commented, "the one
thing Democrats haven’t done, and won’t do, is speak clearly enough on Iraq (and
in favor of a rapid exit) to steal Nader’s thunder. That’s why Nader’s
stronger-than-expected showing in the polls may be carried right through to the
election. Back in 2000, his campaign was basically warmed-over class warfare and
an anti-corporate fury. This time he has real grist for the mill with… an
anti-war left that is furious… Looking at the trajectory of the polls, Nader’s
candidacy has gained momentum in proportion to Kerry’s waltz back toward the
center" (24June, Collin Levey).
To counter this, Dean has been drafted to lead the
Democrats’ attack on Nader and urge his supporters to stay within the Democratic
fold. To avoid a wholesale defection of his left-wing base to Nader, Kucinich
has been compelled, absurdly, to continue his anti-war, pro-labor campaign for
the Democratic presidential nomination and avoid endorsing Kerry. However, this
sideshow will end at the Democratic Party national convention, where Kucinich
will endorse Kerry, with another sizable chunk of Kucinich activists most likely
joining the Nader campaign.
Significant layers of left activists, particularly from the
anti-war movement, have gathered around the Nader campaign. This radical trend
is most pronounced among young people. It is among ‘fresh layers’ who are not
yet very politically active that Nader is getting the best response. They tend
to be more working class, oppressed, and disenfranchised. They are far more
willing to judge the candidates by their programs and less susceptible to the
Anybody But Bush virus than many who supported Nader in 2000, and are now being
swept away by the lesser-evil hysteria among the middle-class, liberal left. The
fresh activists are deeply alienated from the Democrats, often registered as
independents, and normally do not vote.
At the end of June, Nader announced Peter Camejo as his vice
presidential running mate. Camejo is the best-known Green Party representative
in the US after getting 5% as the Green candidate for California Governor in
2002 and almost 3% in the 2003 California Governor recall race. In the 1960s and
1970s Camejo was a leader of the Socialist Workers Party. Since then he has
moved to the right, becoming a leading exponent of ‘socially responsible’ stock
investment as a tool to democratize capitalism.
Camejo, however, stands to the left of Nader on a number of
important issues. He calls for an immediate withdrawal of the US from Iraq (Nader
says it should take place over six months), and has a strong anti-war profile
based on his leading role in the anti-Vietnam war movement. His profile will
further strengthen Nader’s appeal to the growing anti-war movement. Camejo has a
far more intransigent attitude towards the Democratic Party than Nader,
explicitly opposing the idea of trying to reform the Democrats, whereas Nader
regularly makes comments that suggest he is trying to pressure the Democrats to
move to the left.
Camejo will significantly strengthen the appeal of the Nader
campaign among Latinos, immigrants and people of color. A fluent Spanish speaker
of Venezuelan descent, Camejo has a base in the Latino community and a record of
fighting racism and supporting immigrant rights. He is the first major Latino
candidate in a presidential race in US history, and is receiving a lot of
attention in the Spanish-language mass media. When Camejo ran for Governor of
California, he had twice as much support among Latino and Black voters as among
whites.
The war against Nader
THE STRENGTH OF the potential Nader vote is all the more
remarkable given the avalanche of attacks from the Democratic Party, the
extremely hostile capitalist media, and the Anybody But Bush syndrome on the
liberal left. Leaders of unions, and civil rights, women’s and environmental
organizations linked to the Democratic Party, have unleashed character
assassinations and vitriolic denunciations of Nader’s presidential bid. The
aggressive attacks by the political establishment reveal a fear of the potential
mass appeal of Nader’s message should it get a footing in the mainstream
political dialogue. Nader also faces a mass of anti-democratic obstacles
restricting his ability to present his program and arguments to the roughly 200
million potential US voters.
Simply getting his name on the ballot in all 50 states is an
enormous undertaking. The two parties have designed an incredible number of
roadblocks to keep out independents and third parties. For example, California
requires an independent presidential candidate to have 153,000 valid signatures.
If that wasn’t enough, the Democrats have launched an all-out attack to keep
Nader off the ballot. In Arizona, where polls show Nader pulling 7% of the vote,
the Nader campaign had to abandon its efforts to gain ballot access after the
Democrats brought a costly lawsuit challenging the 20,000 signatures collected.
The state Democratic chairman stated "our first objective is to keep him off the
ballot. This vote is about George Bush and John Kerry, and we think it distorts
the entire electoral process to have his name on the ballot".
Such action by the Democrats indicates a desperate party
losing its grip on popular support. Unable to marshal arguments or ideas, they
can only survive by denying people the democratic right to vote for the
candidate of their choice. The Democrats and their liberal front groups are also
spending millions of dollars running TV commercials attacking Nader (who lacks
the funds to even run his own TV ads). On top of this, the two parties are
working to exclude Nader from the official presidential TV debates.
This anti-Nader war also played itself out at the June
convention of the Green Party, which ran Nader as its candidate in 2000 and
1996. Capitulating to the Democrats anti-Nader offensive, the Green party
leadership manoeuvred to deny Nader the Green endorsement (despite the majority
of Green Party members supporting Nader), blocking Nader from using the Greens’
ballot line in 22 states. Instead, the Greens chose an unknown party activist,
David Cobb, who will run only in ‘safe states’ and avoid challenging Kerry in
close states.
Reform Party
RESPONDING TO THESE ferocious attacks, Nader argues that his
campaign will help the Democrats by drawing the majority of his support from
conservatives and Bush voters. However, the evidence is clear that the bulk of
Nader’s votes are left-wing and are hurting Kerry more than Bush.
While Nader is picking up some support among conservative
workers, almost half of Nader’s support is coming from registered independents,
11% of whom favour Nader. Business Week points out that these are
"left-leaning independents who are wary of Kerry’s support for the [Iraq] war"
(31 May). Nader is also drawing support from the many left-Democrats angered at
the Democrats’ right-wing policies and collaboration with Bush.
Nader’s strategy of appealing to conservatives was brought
into sharp relief in May when he was endorsed by the Reform Party. The
endorsement allows Nader to use the Reform Party’s ballot line in seven states
where they have automatic representation.
However, the Reform Party has a right-wing, racist,
anti-immigrant program and is widely associated with its 2000 presidential
candidate, Pat Buchanan, a man best known for his virulent racism, homophobia,
and far-right nationalist agenda. In fact, the Reform Party split in 2000 over
the Buchanan endorsement, with the more ‘moderate’ anti-Buchanan faction
endorsing Nader in 2000. Since then the Buchanan forces have largely left the
party and the anti-Buchanan wing has regained control.
Nader has stated that he is not running as a candidate of
the Reform Party and will continue running as an independent. But he welcomed
their endorsement and has indicated that he will likely use their ballot line.
This is a very serious mistake. While Nader may see this as a pragmatic way to
get his name on the ballot in more states, it is unprincipled and it will taint
his campaign with the association of an anti-immigrant, racist, right-wing
populist party.
Nader’s acceptance of the Reform Party endorsement, however,
is in line with his populist character, rather than a clear working-class or
socialist position. Populism is a very contradictory phenomenon which often
mixes together left-wing with right-wing populist appeals. By accepting the
Reform Party’s endorsement, Nader has allowed an element of right-wing populism
into his campaign.
On balance though, Nader’s campaign remains predominantly
left-populist, anti-corporate, and anti-war. Nader has made no moves to adopt
the Reform Party’s right-wing program. In fact, the left-wing character of
Nader’s campaign has been reinforced over the past few months. Nader has
increasingly put opposition to the war in Iraq at the center of his campaign,
significantly strengthening his appeal in the anti-war movement, has stepped up
his criticisms of the Democratic Party, and selected Peter Camejo as his running
mate.
Currently, the Nader campaign has strong support among
people of color, immigrants and women (see box). However, the Reform Party may
re-emerge as a bigger issue if Nader decides to take their ballot line. This
could weaken Nader’s attraction to immigrants, people of color, and radical
workers and young people. Moreover, it will provide ammunition to the
pro-Democrat union leaders, civil rights and women’s organizations.
Socialist Alternative (the Socialist Party’s sister
organization in the USA) completely opposes Nader using the Reform Party ballot
line. Socialist Alternative put out an open letter to Nader and campaign
activists urging Nader to reject the Reform Party’s ballot line and to publicly
explain his campaign’s opposition to the Reform Party’s right-wing, racist,
anti-immigrant policies. We also explain that while it is right for the Nader
campaign to reach out to disgruntled Republicans and Reform Party supporters,
this must be done on a principled basis. Instead, Nader has made his appeal in
an opportunist fashion by downplaying issues like abortion, racism, and same-sex
marriage.
Underlying all of this is Nader’s lack of an alternative to
capitalism. He envisages social progress through the radical democratisation of
capitalism into a humane system based on small corporations. However, the logic
of capitalism in this epoch inevitably tends in the direction of monopolisation
of the market by a few giant multinationals and the curtailing of democratic
rights. As a left populist, Nader mobilises mass opposition to the big-business
system, but he lacks a program for transforming society or a strategy for
achieving fundamental change.
While energetically campaigning for a Nader vote, Socialist
Alternative raises the need to go further, not just opposing corporate power,
but also opposing the underlying system of capitalism. Moreover, it is not
enough to appeal to the people, or citizens: a mass movement for fundamental
change must be firmly based on the support of the working class, the only social
force capable of carrying through a transformation of society. While campaigning
for Nader, we will be raising these ideas with the radical layers looking for a
real alternative to the big-business parties.
Prospects for November
NADER’S ELECTORAL SUPPORT is strong – far more than was
predicated by the ‘experts’ only months ago – and is gaining momentum. It is
possible that Nader will receive a higher vote and have a greater impact than
his historic campaign in 2000 because of the Iraq war. The anti-war mood
encompasses a much wider layer of US society than the anti-globalization
movement in 2000. There is a burning anger at the US occupation of Iraq among
growing sections of the working class. Given the deep crisis in Iraq, this trend
will deepen in the coming period.
If support for Bush collapses and it appears more certain
that Kerry will win, Nader’s vote will likely remain quite high and could grow.
Many left-wing voters, who currently feel compelled to vote for Kerry to defeat
Bush, would bolt from Kerry and vote for Nader to punish the Democrats for their
right-wing policies. Under this scenario, it is possible that Nader could win a
higher vote than in 2000 and achieve an historical breakthrough for the US left.
This could trigger a wave of other independent anti-war, left-wing and labor
candidates.
If the race remains close between Bush and Kerry, however,
Nader’s vote could be squeezed. The Democrats, along with the leaders of the
trade unions, civil rights and women’s organizations would unleash an almighty
offensive against Nader. At the same time, Kerry could be pressured to employ
more populist rhetoric. This is the twin-track approach that the Democrats used
in 2000, which succeeded in cutting Nader’s vote down to 2.7% from the 6% he was
polling a few weeks before election day.
Given the undemocratic and unrepresentative big-business
domination of the dysfunctional US electoral system, the real significance and
impact of the strong interest and support for Nader goes far beyond the actual
vote tally on 2 November. Nader’s support points to the growing radicalization
of an important layer of workers and youth.
Nader’s campaign is strengthening and deepening the radical
anti-corporate, anti-war, anti-establishment mood. It is reaching tens of
millions of people and raising consciousness about big business’s domination
over US society and politics, the need to end the occupation of Iraq, and is
helping to popularize a host of radical demands. Nader’s independent stand is
legitimizing the idea of breaking with the corrupt, undemocratic two party
system of the status quo.
Growing support for Nader’s campaign reflects the deepening
crisis of the corrupt two-party system. The deep tensions in US society are
preparing the conditions for moves towards the creation of a new mass party that
could provide political representation for workers and provide a vehicle for
struggle for workers, minorities, women and all oppressed layers fighting the
system. Effective steps in this direction will require movements of significant
sections of the working class, movements that will erupt in the next few years.
In this context, Nader’s campaign reinforces consciousness of the need for all
those who want progressive change to break from the Democratic Party. It is
helping to prepare the ground for future independent anti-war, left-wing and
labor campaigns that will pave the way for the formation of a mass party of the
left based on working-class forces.
Who’s supporting Nader?
CONTRARY TO the media portrayal of Nader’s supporters as
mainly middle-class white students, Nader is gaining the support of important
sections of workers, the poor, people of color, and women.
Nader has the support of 10% of blacks and 8% of Hispanics,
as opposed to 6% of whites (Gallup poll, 6 July) while 26% of Muslim-Americans
say they will vote for Nader (Council on American-Islamic Relations poll, 29
June).
Nader’s strongest support is among the less educated, which
tend to have lower incomes. Nine percent of those with a high school education
or less say they will vote for Nader, as opposed to 6% with some college
education and 4% who have graduated from college. Eight percent of women are
supporting Nader; 5% of men. By region, Nader has the highest vote in the ‘East’
with 10%, which also saw the lowest support for Bush (only 30%) and the highest
support for Kerry (58%). In the ‘Midwest’ Nader stood at 9%, 4% in the ‘South’,
and 5% in the ‘West’ (Washington Post, 22 June).
Nader’s strongest appeal is to young people, where he stands
at 12% in polls. More than 100 ‘Students for Nader’ campus chapters in over 30
states have been formed. This reflects the radicalization of young people that
began in the late 1990s with the anti-globalization movement and is now
continuing with the anti-war movement.
The buying of the President
THE BUSH and Kerry campaigns have already outstripped all
previous fundraising records and are on track to spend over $1 billion in total.
This staggering sum exposes the complete stranglehold of the capitalist
aristocracy over US politics.
Refusing to take any corporate money, Nader has raised over
$1 million up to April, an impressive sum for a left-wing candidate and more
than he raised at the same point in 2000. Eighty-nine percent of donations to
Nader have been $100 or less.
Despite the financial advantage of the Bush and Kerry
campaigns, Nader’s pro-worker, anti-war message means his limited resources can
go a lot further. For every $1 that Nader spends to earn a vote, Bush needs to
spend $15.43 and Kerry $11.29. Put another way, for every dollar Nader spends,
Bush spends $117 and Kerry $93, yet Bush only has 7.33 times more votes than
Nader and Kerry has eight times the support. What would the campaign look like
if it were on an even playing field?
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