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Scottish National Party victorious: what now?
ON MAY 3 the Scottish National Party (SNP) won the
popular vote in an election in Scotland for the first time in its
73-year history. It came top in the constituencies and the regional list
vote, outpolling Labour by 33% to 32%, and 31% to 29% respectively. Its
aggregate vote was 1.3 million votes to Labour’s 1.24 million (actually
slightly less than the 1.31 million votes it won in the inaugural
Scottish elections in 1999).
While Labour’s vote did not collapse, a 2.5% drop in
the constituency vote and a marginal 0.1% fall in the regional vote was
enough for the SNP to emerge as the largest party by one seat. Labour
has lost an election in Scotland for the first time in 52 years.
The SNP increased its MSPs (Members of the Scottish
Parliament) from 27 in 2003 to 47. Particularly significant was the
increase in constituency (first-past-the-post) seats from nine to 21.
The SNP won both Dundee seats and one in Aberdeen, Edinburgh and
Glasgow, as well as other working-class constituencies in West Lothian,
Kilmarnock and Central Fife, on top of its rural base.
While support for the Tories and Liberal Democrats
was largely unchanged – both down one MSP – smaller parties and
independents saw their votes drain away towards the SNP. Of 17 MSPs
elected in 2003 – six Scottish Socialist Party (SSP), seven Greens, four
independents – only three remain, two Greens and Margo
McDonald.
In the 2003 regional list vote 22.5% backed
candidates other than from the main four parties. This fell to 11.3%.
The Greens national share of the poll fell by 3%, despite sympathetic
press coverage and the environment being a central political issue, a
50,000 vote drop (down 37.5%). The SSP vote collapsed catastrophically
by 90%, from 128,000 (6.7% of the national poll) in 2003 to 12,700
(0.6%). The SSP was outpolled not only by the new socialist movement,
Solidarity, but also by the British National Party, Arthur Scargill’s
Socialist Labour Party, and the Scottish Christian Party. Solidarity
picked up 31,000 votes, 1.5% of the national poll.
The SNP’s victory was largely based on the fact that
it was seen as the main vehicle with which to hit back at New Labour.
Opposition to New Labour’s record, at Holyrood and Westminster, created
a mood for change. To capitalise on this the SNP – a pro-capitalist
party promoting neo-liberal policies – had to stand to the left of New
Labour on a series of social issues. While wheeling out millionaires
like Brian Souter, George Matheson and Tom Farmer, and promoting the
‘Celtic Tiger’ model for an independent Scotland, the SNP also supported
the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, the scrapping of Trident, abolition
of council tax, ending student debt, and an end to PFI, among other
generally progressive policies.
It is also clear, however, that a section of the
population, including a layer of older workers, voted Labour to keep the
SNP out. New Labour concentrated almost exclusively on the theme that an
SNP vote was for ‘separation, instability and conflict’. This strategy
worked in 1999 but had less impact this time as opposition to New Labour
has deepened. Nevertheless, there was a section of working-class people
who stuck with the ‘devil they knew’.
So what will the SNP do in power? First Minister
Alex Salmond, in his first speech to parliament, outlined his
government’s approach: the SNP would "allow Scottish business to
flourish", as a "vibrant dynamic economy was the beating heart of a
successful country". He promised to cut business taxes for small firms
and establish an International Economic Council of advisors, so Scotland
could become part of the ‘arc of prosperity’ from Ireland to Iceland to
Norway, and to match UK economic growth within four years. He completely
omitted the populist elements of the SNP’s manifesto. In fact, Labour
leader and ex-First Minister Jack McConnell, berated Salmond for not
mentioning what he would do about poverty. This is an anticipation of
how on some issues, hypocritically to gain political advantage, New
Labour can attack the SNP from the left now it is in opposition.
Thus far the SNP has moved only to abolish the
remaining bridge tolls in Scotland and block efforts to build new
nuclear power stations. Even its environmental policies – underpinned by
expanding renewable energy and carbon capture initiatives – are to be
delivered primarily by handing responsibility to multi-national
companies like BP, Ibredrola/Scottish Power and Babcock, which are only
interested in profit and multi-million pound government subsides.
As a minority administration the SNP has clearly
decided to tailor its legislative programme to what the other
big-business parties will support, hoping to avoid being seen as a
paralysed government largely unable to get its legislation through. It
remains to be seen how much of the SNP’s manifesto it brings forward –
unless it is faced with a significant class movement and is forced to
respond.
A genuine left government in a minority position
would make an appeal to the working class outside parliament and seek to
mobilise public support to push the introduction of progressive
policies. If this was not possible and the government was blocked in
carrying through its policies, at a certain stage, it would be correct
to force new elections and seek a mandate for decisive economic and
social change linked to the need to build a mass movement to challenge
capitalist interests. This is not a route the SNP will take as it is not
even a genuine left party, far less a socialist force. That is not to
argue, however, that the SNP will not be forced to attempt some radical
measures. At least initially, the main political direction of the SNP
will be to disappoint those workers and young people who voted for it.
On independence, its manifesto pledged a ‘white
paper’ to begin to prepare for a referendum. But there is no prospect of
this being passed in the current parliament. Salmond now calls for a
‘conversation with the people of Scotland’ on constitutional change and
appeals to the MSPs, a majority, who were elected on a policy of
‘constitutional evolution’. This may be a precursor for a new
‘Constitutional Convention’ to draw up plans for extending parliament’s
powers. This is supported by the Liberal Democrats, and could involve
the SNP, sections of the Labour Party, and the Tories. At this stage,
public support for extending parliament’s powers over tax, Trident and
other issues is double that for outright independence.
With Gordon Brown replacing Tony Blair as prime
minister there is also the potential for a series of conflicts between
the SNP in Scotland and New Labour in Westminster which can further
inflame the national question. A future Westminster general election,
particularly if David Cameron’s Tories were elected, could also ignite
the national question still further.
May 3 also extended the SNP’s influence in local
government. The new single transferable vote (STV) system of electing
councillors and the fall in Labour support radically altered the make-up
of local authorities. The SNP is part of ruling administrations in
almost half of the 32 councils in Scotland – almost all in coalition
with the Liberal Democrats. These include Edinburgh, Aberdeen, and the
second-largest council, Fife. With the SNP’s history
in local government of attacks on workers’ rights and supporting
privatisation and cuts, this will bring it into collision with a much
wider section of local government workers and working-class communities
than before – especially against the background of new spending cuts
under Brown.
Under these conditions – with the SNP being put to
the test like never before – the opportunities to build a fighting
socialist alternative in Scotland can grow rapidly. The fact that there
are no socialist MSPs is a setback. The responsibility for this
lies with the actions and policies of the SSP leadership which forced a
split and the formation of the new socialist party, Solidarity, in
September last year. The SSP leadership was widely seen to have backed
Rupert Murdoch’s News of the World against Tommy Sheridan and they paid
a devastating price. Not only were the SSP wiped out of parliamentary
representation but it was Solidarity that clearly emerged as the main
socialist force, winning 70% of the socialist vote.
The task now is to deepen the roots of Solidarity as
a socialist party by taking up the issues facing working-class
communities and young people. The International Socialists, the CWI in
Scotland, whose members play a key role in Solidarity, will campaign to
build Solidarity and the forces of Marxism in Scotland. With the
big-business agenda set to continue, now through the SNP, working-class
people need a fighting socialist party to defend their interests.
Philip Stott
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