Germany: new government’s
savage cuts by stealth
NOBODY HAS to fear an ‘ice
storm’, insists Angela Merkel, re-elected German chancellor, in relation
to her new government. "We are no social danger", Guido Westerwelle, her
vice-chancellor, felt compelled to say of his own liberal FDP party.
Despite plans to increase attacks on working people, the ruling parties
are hoping not to provoke growing political instability and discontent.
On the one hand, big business
got the government it desired. The new coalition of the conservative CDU/CSU
and the FDP wants €19 billion-worth of tax cuts, mainly for rich people
and big companies. Pensions are expected to be frozen for the next five
or six years. They want to facilitate temporary job contracts and
privatise the railways. Severe cuts in the health service have been
announced for 2011.
On the other hand, Merkel
presents herself as being close to the union leaders. Bigger attacks on
social security have been postponed and the government – which has
always argued for budgetary discipline in Europe – will increase its
debt, accepting that it will not meet the Maastricht criteria (budgetary
deficits below 3% of GDP) until 2013.
Already, tensions inside the
government have become clear. CSU leader and Bavaria’s minister
president, Horst Seehofer, refused to support the health plans which he
and his party had agreed to days before. However, the chair of the
German Chamber of Industry and Trade, Hans Heinrich Driftmann, warned
that these cuts are only a beginning: "In the coming four years, we need
more courage for reforms".
But the government is fearful
of endangering economic recovery by implementing austerity measures too
soon. There is also the fear of provoking resistance and the threat of
growing political instability, including the prospect of the CDU and FDP
being defeated in next May’s elections in Germany’s largest region,
North Rhine-Westphalia.
The turnout in September’s
election fell to a historic low of 72%. While the conservatives lost
support, the vote collapsed for the SPD (Social Democratic Party) – the
CDU/CSU’s coalition partner before the elections. Compared to 2005, the
SPD fell 10.5%, and ten million SPD votes have been lost since 1998.
The capitalists hope that a
period of opposition will enable the SPD to recover some support and
hold back the rise of Die Linke (The Left), whose vote rose. The former
government parties were punished despite the fact that the worst effects
of the crisis – an estimated 5% drop in output in 2009 – were hidden. A
massive rise in short-time working masked unemployment. Increased state
spending – for example, the ‘cash for clunkers’ schemes – helped sustain
the car industry.
Now Merkel speaks of a year
of rising unemployment. The full force of the crisis will hit Germany in
2010, according to the chancellor. The employment bureau expects up to
4.1 million to be unemployed next year, compared with 3.3 million now.
Unofficial levels are already higher: 1.4 million receive subsidies for
short-time working, among them one quarter of Germany’s engineering
workforce.
The economic ‘recovery’ in
the second (0.4%) and third quarter (0.7%) of 2009 is not only low but
weak, based on increased exports, while domestic demand is still
shrinking. Rising unemployment will be a further blow to the domestic
market. German banks still hold a lot of bad loans, threatening future
economic development.
The fragile economic
situation and a possible new downturn - for example, in the car industry
- could hit the country hard. Around Stuttgart – relatively better off
in recent years – 30% of the factories (mainly car industry) and their
suppliers are threatened with bankruptcy, according to the metalworkers’
union.
So far, bigger struggles have
been avoided with the help of the union leadership, for example with a
‘standstill’ agreement between the bosses, government and the unions in
the run-up to the elections. But anger is growing. Tens of thousands of
students, and in one region teachers, went on strike on 17 November. In
dozens of universities the main lecture halls have been occupied, in
protests inspired by the Austrian students’ movement. Anger is mounting
in the factories as the bosses have implemented wage cuts, lengthened
the working week and pushed through redundancies.
Resistance has been held back
by fear of unemployment and by the draconian Hartz IV ‘benefits’ regime,
introduced in 2004 by the SPD-led government. However, any big struggle
could bring all this unrest and anger to the surface. Movements from
below could develop, bypassing union structures to avoid the
leadership’s attempts to block struggles. In 2004, the spontaneous,
seven-day strike at Opel’s Bochum plant grabbed the attention of the
whole country.
Debate has started on the
2010 wage negotiations which affect more than nine million workers. The
left of the unions, while still very weak, argues for a shorter working
week without loss of pay, and attempts to raise the idea of a general
strike against the government’s attacks. The challenge for Die Linke is
to prepare for these struggles in order to develop as a decisive force
for change.
In the eyes of many of its
members and supporters, the 11.9% vote received by Die Linke (8.7% in
2005) was encouraging. It was the only party in the election to campaign
for a withdrawal of German troops from Afghanistan, against the Hartz IV
attacks, against the increase in the retirement age (up from 65 to 67
under the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition), for taxing the rich and nationalising
the banks.
But the huge potential to
build Die Linke has only touched the surface, so far. Moreover, the
leadership’s actions raise questions over the future of this first step
towards a strong mass force. On election night, Gregor Gysi, Die Linke’s
parliamentary leader, expressed his hopes that the SPD could recover and
become more ‘social democratic’ again. According to Gysi, this would
take votes from Die Linke but would create the option of a ‘left’
coalition. This shows the orientation of this part of the leadership
towards parliamentarianism and investing all hopes on coalitions with
the SPD, a party firmly committed to capitalism.
Later, Oskar Lafontaine
resigned as joint parliamentary leader (while remaining co-chair of the
party). This opened the way even more for the right wing and was
probably an attempt to make it easier for the SPD, Lafontaine’s former
party, to cooperate with Die Linke in opposition.
In Brandenburg, a new SPD-Die
Linke government has been formed. As in the ‘red-red’ coalition in
Berlin, Die Linke has accepted severe cuts in return for ministerial
posts. At the same time, Die Linke dropped some of its election
promises, like the abolition of tuition fees. The coalition plans to cut
10,000 out of 50,000 public-sector jobs by 2019. According to media
reports, behind the scenes, Lafontaine tried to stop Die Linke going so
far in Brandenburg. Open opposition came from Linksjugend [Solid] – the
youth wing of Die Linke – in Brandenburg.
Die Linke’s federal state
organisation in North Rhine-Westphalia also opposed the Brandenburg
policy. Federal state elections are due here in May. With its tradition
of being left-wing since the time of the WASG – the mainly western
component of Die Linke, which fused with the PDS (based in the east) in
2007 – its last federal congress agreed a more left-wing election
programme. Claus Ludwig, Die Linke councillor in Cologne and member of
SAV (CWI Germany), commented: "The demands are for a 30-hour working
week on full pay, the nationalisation of RWE and Eon [big energy
companies] and of the car producer Opel, as well as the closure of
military bases in North Rhine-Westphalia. Given the complaints of the
capitalist politicians and media about the ‘loopy lefts’, this shows
that Die Linke in North Rhine-Westphalia is on the right track".
The debate around ‘lesser
evilism’ and taking part in coalitions with the SPD has been revived.
SAV argues that Die Linke should aim to win majority support for
socialist ideas. SAV is in favour of governments based on the struggle
of the working class with a socialist programme, to break with the power
of the banks and big monopolies. This is not achievable with the SPD and
Greens. Die Linke must not bind itself to a government of these
pro-capitalist parties. Decisions to support or oppose government
measures should be taken individually, depending on whether they are in
the interests of the working class. A blank cheque for these parties, in
the form of coalition or a ‘toleration treaty’ (in coalition without
taking ministerial positions) must be rejected.
Government politicians are
already arguing among themselves about how to serve big business without
provoking resistance. This presents Die Linke with opportunities to
build. With the increase in class struggle over recent years, the
confidence of workers has grown. The strikes of kindergarten teachers in
the summer and cleaners in the autumn involved sections of the working
class which were not to the forefront in the past. This indicates that
the German working class is not stunned by the crisis, and massive anger
is mounting.
Stephan Kimmerle
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