Germany:
political volatility sees Greens rise
OPPOSITION TO the policies of German chancellor,
Angela Merkel, are being expressed in mass resentment and electoral
support for Die Grünen (The Greens). Indeed, recent polls suggest that a
Green candidate would become chancellor if national elections took place
now.
Even before the catastrophe at Japan’s Fukushima
nuclear power station, support was stagnating for the conservative
coalition government – made up of Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the Liberal Free
Democratic Party (FDP). Although it tried to claim credit for the
economic upswing, working-class people have not felt any benefit. One in
two new jobs is on a temporary contract. Wages remain low. In 2009, the
FDP won 14.5% in national elections with the promise of lower taxes, and
even a number of workers voted for it, hoping for higher wages. Now the
party is in a deep crisis. Guido Westerwelle has been kicked out as
party leader, and the FDP might struggle to make it back into the
national parliament.
Against the background of the world economic crisis,
workers feel that German growth is built on thin ground. The government
is unstable even though the austerity measures have been limited so far,
and trade union leaders are not pushing for mass resistance. This
instability has been expressed in the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
loss of seven state minister-presidents since 2009. The picture of an
incapable government was underlined by the resignation of the defence
minister, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, tipped as a future conservative
chancellor, because he cheated in his doctorate thesis. It is now
questionable whether this government can see through its term in office,
due to end in 2013.
Meanwhile, there is strong and growing anti-nuclear
resistance. Last September, 100,000 people marched in Berlin.
Nevertheless, the government extended the lifetime of nuclear power
plants. Nuclear waste transports were blocked in acts of civil
disobedience by thousands of people in November. On top of this, a
regional mass movement of hundreds of thousands has developed against
the expensive and dangerous train-station project, ‘Stuttgart 21’,
Stuttgart being the state capital of Baden-Württemberg. This severely
undermined support for the conservative-liberal state government. Die
Grünen were prominent in both movements. Die Linke (The Left), on the
other hand, hesitated to take up these issues.
The catastrophe in Fukushima gave an enormous boost
to the anti-nuclear power movement. Due to an ongoing anti-nuclear
movement since the 1980s, nuclear power is rejected by the majority of
people in Germany. And, in the first opinion polls after Fukushima, 72%
said they were in favour of an immediate shut down of the ‘old’ nuclear
plants, those built before 1980.
One day after the earthquake in Japan, a mass
protest – planned before the disaster – took place in Stuttgart. Sixty
thousand people formed a 40km human chain against nuclear power. Up to
140,000 people followed the call for Monday protests on 726 regional
demonstrations. One day before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg
and Rheinland-Pfalz, 250,000 people participated in four mass
demonstrations, the biggest protest in the history of the anti-nuclear
power movement.
While Die Linke has not made it into the
Baden-Württemberg state parliament, Die Grünen gained their first
minister-president. All other parties lost support. Sixty-five percent
of voters said that energy policy had been decisive, while 25% said
Stuttgart 21 had been the key issue.
The victory of Die Grünen is a political earthquake,
ending 58 years of CDU-led governments in Baden-Württemberg. They
doubled their support to 24.2%, gaining even more votes because of the
high turnout. The end of the hated government headed by Stefan Mappus
was widely celebrated. He was held responsible for the police repression
on ‘black Thursday’ last September, when 400 people were injured.
Additionally, Mappus was seen as the major spokesperson for longer
contracts for nuclear plants on a national level.
Die Grünen have been in opposition nationally for
six years. Although they agreed to the rotten compromise of a long-term
‘exit strategy’ for nuclear power in 2002 – seen as a betrayal by large
parts of the movement – they have been able to rebuild their position,
partially at least. Partly, this is also because Die Linke has not
challenged them effectively – which is why the Greens are seen as the
main party against nuclear power.
The new minister-president, Winfried Kretschmann, is
a representative of the rightwing of Die Grünen, which argues openly for
foreign military intervention, for example. Even though Die Grünen is a
completely capitalist party, the rightwing calls for its remaining
radical demands to be watered down, to increase support from big
business.
It is not clear how long they can keep their
support. At the time of writing, the ‘social-democratic’ SPD and Die
Grünen are negotiating for a coalition agreement in Baden-Württemberg.
Representatives have made it clear that they are going to take ‘fiscal
responsibility’. The budget deficit is €8 billion, and cuts in teachers’
jobs have already been announced, despite promises by Die Grünen to
improve school education. They will not increase taxes for the rich or
big companies, so further austerity measures will be necessary to lower
the deficit. Nonetheless, in the short term, they can still present
themselves as improving living conditions if they abolish tuition fees.
Depending on the development of the anti-nuclear
power movement, Die Grünen can build from this and broad environmental
issues. It is likely that they will have good results in state elections
in Bremen, Berlin and Mecklenburg Vorpommern this year. In Berlin, they
have a good chance of becoming the biggest party. Although they have
seen a remarkable increase in membership, however, activists do not see
the party as theirs, so there is no lasting adhesion to Die Grünen by
the middle and working classes.
Stuttgart 21 is seen as their first test in
Baden-Württemberg and is being closely followed by the national media.
Die Grünen ordered a building freeze for the project as an important
step to calm the movement. Together with the SPD, which is in favour of
Stuttgart 21, they decided to call a referendum on the issue. This is a
big threat to the movement, as 2.5 million votes (out of 7.5m eligible
to vote) will be needed to stop the project. On the one hand, the
possibility of mobilising so many people is almost ruled out. On the
other hand, the opponents of Stuttgart 21 do not have a stable majority
in the state. The result, therefore, could be that Stuttgart 21 will be
built under a Green minister-president, and support for Die Grünen would
decrease.
The main reason for Die Grünen’s big increase in
support, however, was the inability of Die Linke to build among the
working class and in the movements against nuclear power and Stuttgart
21. It underestimated the protests against Stuttgart 21 and did not use
its resources to strengthen the movement and lead a way forward. Even
though many people were suspicious whether Die Grünen would sacrifice
their position against Stuttgart 21 in favour of government
participation, and saw that Die Linke also took part in construction
blockades and other civil disobedience, Die Linke was not seen as major
force of the movement. It presented itself as a left corrective to the
SPD and Die Grünen and was unclear about its participation in
coalitions. Had Die Linke presented itself as a voice of resistance
against the establishment parties, and as a militant socialist force, it
could have gained more support.
Die Grünen emerged from the anti-nuclear power
movement in the 1980s. Die Linke cannot build up the same record in one
day. But large numbers of activists from the movement are alienated from
Die Grünen since their rotten compromise on nuclear power in 2002. They
are also angered because Die Grünen are not in favour of an immediate
shut down of all nuclear power plants, unlike most activists.
Criticising Die Grünen in the movement, Die Linke could explain the
necessity of building a democratic, combative and socialist party as an
instrument for the movement to shut down nuclear power, fight against
austerity cuts and overthrow capitalism.
Unfortunately, Die Linke fails to do this and is
increasingly seen as another established party. Sozialistische
Alternative (SAV – CWI Germany), whose members are active in Die Linke,
called for full support of these movements from the beginning and have
been active in them. Die Grünen will betray the activists and workers
again, and a real, fighting socialist alternative is needed to their
policies.
