France set to join Europe’s turmoil
FRANCE IS emerging from a period strongly marked by
the elections on the one hand, and the worsening of the economic crisis
on the other. Although France is not yet facing the grim austerity of
other European Union countries, class inequalities and social
polarisation are deepening, and these were reflected in the election
results.
After having cleared away former president, Nicolas
Sarkozy, of the right-wing UMP (Union for a Popular Movement), voters
slapped his government in the face by giving an absolute majority to the
Socialist Party (PS). A number of influential ministers from the
previous government lost their seats in the National Assembly. The right
wing is passing through a major ideological crisis, as well as a crisis
of leadership after the Sarkozy era. It has been weakened in its ability
to stand as an opposition to the PS-led government of Jean-Marc Ayrault,
appointed prime minister by the new president, François Hollande,
especially since this position is being challenged by the far-right
National Front (FN) as well.
The more right-wing direction which Sarkozy was
trying to push on the UMP has faced resistance from the traditional
conservative, more Gaullist, part of the electorate. It has also lost
the support of a section of working-class voters whose living standards
have been severely undermined in the last five years. On top of that, it
has been punished by those preferring ‘the original to the copy’, by
voting for FN leader Marine Le Pen in the presidential elections, and
for FN candidates in the legislative elections.
The PS, which has won all the national elections
during the past five years, appears strengthened. But some elements
contradict this observation. Although the PS has emerged as the big
winner in the general election, its score for May’s presidential
election was not such a great victory over the UMP. Moreover, the low
turnout in the parliamentary elections (43% in the second round)
confirmed the growing rejection of traditional politicians and their
opportunism. This suggests that this vote has a strong tactical
character on the part of the working class.
Despite its past record, the PS has not yet been
fully exposed in the eyes of the population, in the sense that there is
not a widespread consciousness that austerity is what will come out of
its rule. Its local policy is based on nepotistic relationships,
confirming locally the total bourgeoisification of the party, even
though it can still receive the passive support of some layers of the
population, especially in the suburbs. But the respite can only be
temporary as the government’s room for manoeuvre, both economically and
politically, is limited.
France is in a unique political situation in Europe.
While many countries are ruled by unstable coalitions, France has at its
head a hegemonic PS controlling the presidency, senate, assembly, most
regions and local councils. But this hides a clever balancing act
between the different trends of the PS and of its allies in the
composition of the government. These will all be put to serious test as
the blows of the economic crisis go deeper by the day. We got a glimpse
of that during the recent controversy over the continued decline in the
number of public-sector workers.
Measures such as the limits put on the salary of the
ministers and the president, the increase of the ISF wealth tax, and
other taxes on the rich, etc, are looked at positively by most people.
Other measures, such as the increase of the minimum wage – limited as it
is to 2% – the hiring of 1,000 teachers in primary education, and the
announcement of talks with the trade unions, will also be considered
positively, even though some workers see that they are clearly
insufficient. The fact is that it is far from the violent attacks and
the arrogance displayed by Sarkozy’s government.
On the other hand, although the PS has attempted to
gain by expressing the anger against the severe destruction of
industrial sector jobs under Sarkozy – the loss of 300,000 jobs in five
years – it is rapidly facing a similar situation itself. Plans for
restructuring, lay-offs and factory closures, which had been delayed by
private companies because of the election period, are now back on the
agenda.
The next step for the Ayrault government is the
autumn budget. Few figures have been announced but, with the target of
reducing the budget deficit to 3% in 2013, everybody knows that the
public sector will be under attack, probably starting with the
healthcare system.
These elections were also marked by a strong vote
for the FN, which scored around 10% on average, with peaks reaching near
20% in its strongholds. Although this party lost a bit comparatively to
the presidential vote, it has managed to gain two MPs. Without ignoring
the racism factor involved, it is clear that the rejection of the
traditional parties associated with the establishment (the ‘UMPS’, as
the FN puts it), and the fact that it put a certain emphasis on social
questions, also played an important role in its vote.
The Left Front had a vote slightly stronger than the
Communist Party (PCF) won on its own five years ago (677,000 votes more)
but was still way down on its presidential vote (1,115,600 compared to
3,984,800). These elections, however, were particularly undemocratic,
and the Left Front saw its parliamentary group weakened. This low vote
compared to the presidential elections is partially due to its rather
conventional campaign, of a PCF-type, without consistent criticism of
the PS. The dynamics around Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s campaign fell down,
with the exception of Hénin-Beaumont, in the north-east, where Mélenchon
stood against Le Pen.
In this area, disappointment is palpable, as the
vote for Le Pen was very significant, and Mélenchon was eliminated in
the first round. In this particular constituency, marked by unemployment
and precarious jobs, the FN has been able to exploit the growing social
misery over a number of years. Given the low weight that the Left Front
has now in the parliament, and the fact that the PS has a parliamentary
majority without it, the possibility for the PCF to enter the government
is ruled out for now. Hence the possibility of a split within the Left
Front will not be immediately posed.
The vote for Lutte Ouvrière and the New
Anti-capitalist Party did not even reach 1%. The far-left is paying a
high price for years of sectarianism and incorrect analysis of the
situation, and for its inability to express the needs and aspirations of
workers and youth in the political arena.
Although relatively quiet in France, at the moment,
the economic situation is unstable on a European scale. Countries like
Greece and Italy are in critical situations, while French banks are
involved in rotten investments with these countries, which could affect
them quite quickly. It is likely, therefore, that the small reforms and
the few social gestures we have seen so far by the new Hollande
administration will rapidly switch towards austerity. In a rapidly
changing situation, the consciousness of the masses will catch up with
the new realities. New opportunities to build a mass socialist force to
arm the working-class movement will arise.
