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No choice German elections
It looks likely that 22 September will mark the end of a
brief period of Red-Green government in Germany. Following 16 years of the
conservative Helmut Kohl as chancellor, his successor, social democrat Gerhard
Schröder, has taken a mere four years to pick the CDU/CSU off the floor and put
it within striking distance of electoral victory. SASCHA STANICIC, the national
secretary of Sozialistische Alternative (the German CWI affiliate), reports.
HELMUT
KOHL LOST the last election in 1998 as a result of mass protests by the working
class in the preceding two years. Half-a-million trade unionists marched on Bonn
(then the capital) in 1996. Metalworkers went on strike to defend sick pay, and
miners occupied the areas around government buildings in defence of their jobs.
Kohl had not solved any of society’s fundamental problems and, in particular,
mass unemployment stayed at dizzy heights. Instead of the ‘blooming landscapes’
promised for East Germany, there occurred the biggest industrial decline in
German history, with jobs destroyed and social deprivation on a huge scale.
It was the anger at 16 years of attacks on the working class
which brought about a change in government. Even though coalitions of the
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) and the Greens had cut social
services and privatised public assets throughout the 1990s in many local
councils and state governments, some sections of the working class hoped for an
improvement. Their attitude was, ‘It can’t get any worse’. And finance
minister Oscar Lafontaine had a reputation as a left-winger so, perhaps, he
would be able to put SPD leader, Gerhard Schröder, the ‘bosses’ comrade’,
in his place.
But things did get worse. After only six months, Lafontaine
gave up. His Keynesian economic ideas were at odds with the neo-liberal doctrine
pursued by the German capitalists and Schröder. Lafontaine got the boot after
an unparalleled media campaign. The British tabloid newspaper, The Sun,
described him as ‘Europe’s most dangerous man’. Lafontaine later said that
the SPD believed it was in power, to discover it was only in government! In
reality, his aim was to manage the crisis of capitalism more effectively.
The change in government did not result in a change of
policy. The Red-Green coalition carried on where the previous Kohl government
left off. For the most part election promises were ‘forgotten’, including
the pledge to reinstate the wealth tax abolished by Kohl and to end anti-strike
legislation (Article 116), while the government exploited workers’ aspirations
in order to carry out attacks which even Kohl never dared attempt. The minister
for work and social welfare, Walter Riester (formerly deputy chair of IGMetall
– the metalworkers’ union), carried out a pension ‘reform’ which
prepared the way for the privatisation of pensions, resulting in higher premiums
and lower payouts.
The introduction of the ‘Eco-tax’ was another measure
which increased workers’ tax burden but did nothing to help the environment.
‘Green’ environmental policies, which heralded ‘the beginning of the end
for nuclear energy’, in fact, guaranteed the existence of nuclear power
stations for the next 32 years. Tax reform benefited big business and the
government set up the Hartz Commission (chaired by a Volkswagen director), which
drew up a plan of vicious attacks on workers’ rights and the unemployed.
Schröder wants to be judged on his success in reducing mass
unemployment but he has not even achieved his modest target of reducing
unemployment to 3.5 million. The figures for August show that there are over
four million people without a job and that is the official figure –
unemployment is really much higher.
The Red-Green government tried to grant the capitalists
their every wish, not least the militarisation of foreign policy. For decades
German capitalism was an economic giant – the third biggest economy in the
world – but a political dwarf, due to the world order established after the
defeat of Adolf Hitler’s fascist regime. With the unification of West and East
Germany and the restoration of capitalism in the other Stalinist states, the
ruling class is now drawing a line across 50 years of the post-war balance of
power. German capitalism wants to be back on the frontline, both politically and
militarily. This is why Schröder wants Germany to have a permanent seat on the
UN Security Council, and has contributed troops to military action for the first
time since the end of the second world war. Schröder’s government has given
17 authorisations for German soldiers to be sent to all corners of the world –
they are now stationed in the Balkans, Africa, Kuwait, Afghanistan and other
regions.
So how should we rate recent comments by Schröder opposing
participation in a possible war on Iraq, even if this were under UN leadership?
The experience of the last four years shows that there are no anti-militaristic
principles involved here. The election is on and polls show 81% of the
population is against a war with Iraq. When George W Bush visited Berlin in May,
more than 70,000 people demonstrated against him. But after the elections, other
‘facts’ can quickly be produced: sudden ‘proof’ that Saddam Hussein has
links with al-Qa’ida, or new ‘reports’ that Iraq has weapons of mass
destruction. And the appeal of the Iraqi bourgeois opposition for military
action against Saddam could be used.
However, Schröder’s position does also reflect diverging
interests between the German ruling class and their US counterparts. Schröder
wants to put pressure on the US to check their unilateralist approach. He also
sees the incalculable consequences of an attack on Iraq, not just for the Middle
East but also for the advanced capitalist countries where a mass anti-war
movement is certain.
Alienated politics
IN THE LAST few years, there has been one political scandal
after another. Originally, the CDU (Christlich Demokratische Union) was affected
when Kohl was forced to resign all party positions for accepting illegal
donations. Now it has hit SPD and Green politicians. In North Rhine-Westphalia,
a traditional stronghold of social democracy, several cases of corruption have
been uncovered. Recently, Schröder kicked out defence minister Rudolf Scharping
because of dubious financial dealings with a public relations manager (a CDU
politician!). Shortly after, Cem Özdemir (a Green party politician) and Gregor
Gysi, leader of the PDS (Partei des Demokratischen Sozialismus – the former
state party of Stalinist East Germany), resigned from their posts because they
had been using air miles gained on business trips with the German airline
Lufthansa for private travel.
This catalogue of affairs, corruption and scandals only
alienates the working class and young people even more from the establishment
parties and bourgeois institutions. The crisis of confidence in capitalism has
grown deeper, preparing the ground for right-wing populist and nationalist
movements as seen in other European countries. The proportion of the electorate
who actually vote has been falling continually in Germany and there has been no
lack of surprise results in council and state elections. In April’s state
elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the SPD crashed from 36% to 20%, after being in a
PDS-supported government for eight years. In Hamburg, at the council elections
in September 2001, the right-wing populist ‘law and order offensive’ party
of judge Ronald Schill won almost 20% of the vote and was elected onto the city
government at the first attempt. Schill, however, has not been able to build a
credible national structure and it is unlikely that his party will achieve the
5% required to enter the national parliament, the Bundestag. This is partly due
to the fact that the CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor, Edmund Stoiber, can
mobilise potential right-wing voters with his racist and reactionary slogans.
The dissatisfaction and anger of workers and young people
can only be expressed in a limited way on the electoral plane because there is
no strong left-wing alternative in the form of a campaigning workers’ party.
It has been reflected, however, in a considerable increase in industrial
struggle, although not on the same level as in Italy, Spain or Portugal. There
have been strikes for higher wages in the engineering and construction
industries and these were followed by warning strikes by Deutsche Telekom
workers and in the post, banking, printing and retail sectors.
Stagnating wages over the last 20 years provide the
background. Between 1980 and 2000 wages fell by 0.4% in real terms, while the
net profits of the bosses rose by 96.5%. Price rises linked to the introduction
of the euro have only added to demands for higher pay. The strikes are all the
more significant because they are taking place during an economic downturn and
in an election year. They have happened because of the mood developing at the
grassroots level and against the will of the trade union leaders.
The leadership of the trade unions swung dramatically to the
right during the 1990s. Instead of fighting for their members’ interests, they
prefer to act as co-managers and go along with the attacks on the working class.
A long list of union leaders has changed sides, becoming politicians in
government or managers of privatised companies. Frustration on the shop floor is
widespread and many workers have left the unions. This has led to employees in
some sectors – call centres, for example – setting up their own structures
independently of the unions. Pressure from below is growing. The situation has
not developed as far as it has in some British unions, where left-wing leaders
have been elected. But the establishment of a national network of left-wing
union activists is a sign that a strong left opposition can develop in the
deepening economic recession.
After the mass demonstrations in Genoa last summer, the
movement against capitalist globalisation in Germany has also grown. The most
important organisation is Attac which, within a few months, formed groups in
over 100 towns and grew from 400 to 6,000 members. Attac presents a programme
for reforming capitalism (it is against the privatisation of the welfare state,
favours the introduction of the Tobin Tax on stock market transactions, and
calls for a new economic order, without saying exactly what kind) but
nonetheless, within Attac, there is room for discussion about socialist ideas,
and socialists participate in its activities, arguing for it to adopt a clear
anti-capitalist direction. Attac took part in the major demonstrations against
the war in Afghanistan and Bush’s visit to Germany. Along with trade union
youth organisations, it has called a national demonstration on 14 September
against neo-liberalism and for social justice.
Stop Stoiber?
STOIBER IS A particularly reactionary representative of the
bosses. He stands for a further increase in racist policies and attacks on
workers’ rights – such as watering down nationally negotiated wage deals and
redundancy protection. Stoiber stands to benefit from the huge disappointment
with the SPD and Greens, although there is no enthusiasm for him and the turnout
is expected to fall to a record low. His candidate for minister of the economy,
Lothar Späth, personifies what the working class can expect from a Stoiber-led
government. Späth is managing director of Jenoptik, a glass lens manufacturer
in East Germany which he took over in 1991 (after he was forced to resign as
minister-president of Baden-Württemberg in a corruption scandal) sacking
thousands of workers and increasing working hours.
The trade union leaders and some lefts, including the sister
organisation of the SWP, are pursuing a ‘Stop Stoiber’ policy. This creates
the impression that Schröder is the lesser of two evils. The logic of this is
to call, either directly or indirectly, for a vote for the SPD. (To date the
German SWP has not published any election appeal although previously it
published articles calling on people to vote SPD or PDS). Yet the fact is that
responsibility for a possible change in government lies fairly and squarely with
the SPD and Green coalition’s right-wing policies. To stop Stoiber, therefore,
it is necessary to fight Schröder’s policies. If a Red-Green government were
re-elected after 22 September, it would mean a continuation of an anti-working
class programme. Socialists must actively campaign against both Stoiber and
Schröder, while offering a fundamentally different policy, a socialist
alternative.
Socialist Alternative (SAV) is conducting an active election
campaign under two main slogans: ‘No to the policies of the banks and big
business’, and ‘Resistance against Stoiber and Schröder’. In particular,
we campaign against the privatisation of health and education, plans to cut
unemployment benefits and increase the low-wage sector, and in opposition to all
military campaigns – emphasising that, whatever happens on election day,
opposition will be necessary. A central demand of our election campaign is for
the building of a new mass workers’ party because the SPD and PDS will not
defend the political interests of millions of workers and young people.
SAV is fielding first-past-the-post candidates in seven
cities. The German electoral system has two votes: one for the constituency
candidate, and a second for different party lists. The second vote is decisive
for the composition of the Bundestag. The PDS is the only party with seats in
the Bundestag which opposes war and cuts in social services. It would disappoint
many leftwingers and trade unionists if the PDS did not get back in. As long as
there is no strong left alternative across Germany, the presence of the PDS is
at least an expression of the opposition to the neo-liberal policies of
Schröder and Stoiber. SAV therefore calls for the second vote to go to the PDS,
while appealing for workers and young people to join SAV and campaign with us
for a new workers’ party.
The further deterioration of the economy will soon mean that
new struggles – action in defence of jobs and even to save whole factories, or
to fight plans to cut wages and lengthen working hours – will be on the
agenda. At the end of the year, wage negotiations start for public-service
employees. This could be the signal for strikes. So-called ‘plans to fight
unemployment’ will be put into practice by the next government, whatever its
composition, and will inevitably lead to sharper attacks on the unemployed and
those in work. The prospect is for increased polarisation and confrontation
between the classes.
It is possible that workers’ struggles could coincide with
a mass movement against a war in Iraq and the movement against capitalist
globalisation. This would tend to speed up the development of a left opposition
in the trade unions. More and more workers and young people will recognise the
need for a new political movement, especially if the PDS fails to get back into
the Bundestag. Against this background, the programme put forward by Socialist
Alternative will attract ever wider support.
Many thanks to Felicity Garvie for translating this article for Socialism
Today.
The Party of Democratic Socialism
SINCE UNIFICATION, the PDS has developed into a ‘normal’
reformist, centre-left party. With its 90,000 (ageing) members it represents a
small mass party in East Germany, gaining up to 20% in elections. In West
Germany it remains a minuscule force with less than 4,000 members and 1-2% of
the vote.
Whilst the PDS is the only party in the Bundestag not
specifically linked to capitalist interests – for example, it has come out
against the war and pension reform – in East Germany it has become a party of
government at local and state level, carrying out cuts in social services and
privatisation. It adopts these ‘pragmatic’ policies because the leadership
has bought into market economics. The party is socialist in name only. It
pursues a purely parliamentary strategy and plays virtually no role in movements
outside parliament.
The PDS sits in government in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and
Berlin. Particularly in Berlin it supports a severe programme of cuts in social
services, job losses and privatisation. It is merely a question of time until
the party follows the SPD fully into the capitalist camp. That is, unless it
breaks up before then. This cannot be ruled out. After Gysi resigned, several
opinion polls indicated that the PDS might not get back into the Bundestag. For
many, the party’s anti-war stance was the main reason for voting for it. The
statements of Schröder and Joschka Fischer (Green party leader) against a war
with Iraq, although insincere, could cost the PDS even more votes. So could the
offer from the PDS leadership to back Schröder for chancellor if the SPD and
Greens lose their majority.
One of the party’s theoreticians, the MEP Andre Brie, has
suggested a new left-wing project with Gysi and Lafontaine. This sparked off a
discussion about a new left party. On the basis of their past politics, such a
party would not offer any genuine alternative. But simply launching a new left
party would inspire many workers and young people. In an online opinion poll by
the magazine Der Spiegel, more than 40% said they could imagine voting for such
a party. At present, there are no signs of Gysi and Lafontaine taking this
initiative, but in the medium term anything is possible if a right-wing
government is elected in the autumn.
After the flood
THE FLOODS IN many parts of Germany have had a devastating
effect on the lives of thousands of people and on the infrastructure and
economy. The Schröder government is trying to take advantage of this situation.
It has promised rapid help and has postponed the next tax reform from 2003 to
2004, thus freeing up €6.9bn for rebuilding the destroyed areas. The cost of
the destruction, however, will probably be three or more times higher. The SPD
and Greens have been attempting to present themselves as more competent on
environmental questions, with Stoiber not even having an environmental
spokesperson in his campaign team. Consequently, according to some opinion
polls, the SPD and Greens could gain a few percentage points.
This might make the election result a bit more open again,
but it does not alter the fact that it looks as though the Red-Green government
will lose. If that were to be the case, the coalition parties will be thrown
into turmoil. However, it is not certain what a new government would look like.
In Stoiber and Schröder, the capitalists have two politicians they can be very
happy with, even if the bosses are now making their preference for Stoiber
clear. A coalition of CDU/CSU and the liberal Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP)
could possibly get a majority. A ‘grand coalition’ of the SPD and CDU/CSU
cannot be ruled out. There is another theoretical option, although it is the
least likely, and that is a coalition of SPD, the Greens and the FDP. Whichever
version succeeds, the working class can only lose.
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