|
|
After the constitutional stitch-up…
The fragmentation of Iraq?
Life under US-British military occupation is a
living hell for most Iraqis. Despite sending over 100,000 troops and
spending over $300bn, US imperialism has failed to defeat the insurgency
or restore vital services to the people. Facing a rising tide of
anti-war opinion at home, the Bush regime is desperately searching for
an exit strategy. It has pushed for the early adoption of a constitution
that is likely to accelerate the slide towards civil war and the
break-up of the country. LYNN WALSH writes.
INVASION BY THE armed forces of US imperialism,
Britain and other powers, has turned Iraq into a living hell. The
dictatorship of Saddam Hussein was bad enough. Opponents of his regime
suffered brutal repression. Saddam plunged the country into an
eight-year war with Iran. Kurds were attacked with poison gas, and the
Shia uprising in 1991 was savagely suppressed. But overthrowing Saddam
was a task for the Iraqi people. Military occupation by the Bush regime,
supported by the Blair government, has created a far more barbarous
situation.
The scale of civilian casualties is horrendous. In
July, over 1,000 corpses were brought to the Baghdad morgue, making it
"the bloodiest month in Baghdad’s modern history". (Robert
Fisk, Independent 18 August)
In its latest report, Iraq Body Count (19 July)
estimates that 24,865 non-combatant civilians were killed between
2003-05, half these women and children. Nearly 40% were killed by US-led
forces, the others by criminal violence and insurgents. But the medical
journal, The Lancet (28 July 2005) describes this as "an absolute
minimum… the figure is necessarily an underestimate". Last year,
The Lancet published a survey indicating "that the death toll
associated with the invasion and occupation of Iraq is more likely than
not about 100,000 people, and maybe much higher". (The Guardian, 28
October 2005) A huge number of people have suffered injuries, and many
will be maimed for life. Even now, the US-British military authorities
are making no attempt to keep account of the dead and wounded. Whole
sections of cities, such as Fallujah, have been reduced to rubble by US
assault tactics.
Over 15,000 prisoners are held in Abu Ghaib and two
other prisons, with a fourth now being built. Despite the presence of
138,000 US-led coalition troops, there is no ‘security’. Violent
crime and looting, kidnapping and rapes, are rampant.
There is an increasing number of incidents in which
Iraq’s new security forces are using aggressive methods against
civilians – rounding up suspects and abusing them in detention.
Recently, over 20 doctors at Baghdad’s Yarmouk hospital went on strike
in protest against abuse of patients and doctors by Iraqi soldiers. (Al
Jazerra, 19 July)
The Iraqi writer, Halfa Zangana, who was imprisoned
under Saddam, sums up the situation: "Despite all the rhetoric of
‘building a new democracy’, Iraqis are buckling under the burdens
and abuse of the US-led occupation and its local Iraqi sub-contractors.
Daily life for Iraqis is still a struggle for survival. Human rights
under occupation have proved, like weapons of mass destruction, to be a
mirage... In a land awash with oil, 16 million Iraqis rely on monthly
food rations for survival. None have been received since May. Acute
malnutrition among children has doubled. Unemployment, at 70%, has
fuelled poverty, prostitution, back-street abortions and honour
killings. Corruption and nepotism are rampant in the interim
government". (Chewing on meaningless words, Guardian, 17 August)
The US claims that $9bn of Iraqi oil money has been
spent on ‘reconstruction’ but much of this has been diverted into
security, with no real results in terms of essential services. The
emphasis has been on mega-projects, with big bucks for contractors, and
forcing through privatisation. There is corruption everywhere, both
among US contractors and Iraqi politicians and middlemen.
Oil production is still below the pre-war level and
declined this year because of sabotage. Iraq cannot produce enough
refined fuel to supply the growing number of vehicles, and queues
stretch for miles. In most areas, there are only a few hours’
electricity a day, with no power for fans or air conditioners, with
summer temperatures of 120 degrees F.
Asked for his views on the constitution, one Iraqi
responded: "What constitution are you talking about? We are fed up
with this thing! We would prefer to solve our problems first, such as
electricity, water and security. How come they gathered to approve the
constitution while Iraqis are being slaughtered?" (New York Times
26 August)
Military impasse
THE ‘SHOCK AND AWE’ invasion of Iraq was
intended by Bush to demonstrate the unchallengeable power of US
imperialism. Instead, this military adventure has exposed the limits of
US power, undermining US prestige and its ability to intervene around
the world. The US is bogged down in an unwinnable war, worse in many
ways than the Vietnam quagmire.
In June vice president Cheney claimed the insurgency
was in its ‘death throes’. At the same time, the US Mideast
commander, General Abizaid, admitted that the insurgency’s
"overall strength is about the same". (New York Times 24 June)
In reality, insurgency stronger than ever before. Iraqi civilians and
police officers have been dying at a rate of more than 800 a month
between August 2004 and May 2005, with over 2,000 injuries a month.
"It has been clear since the government of pm
Ibrahim al-Jaafari took over after the January 30 elections that the
insurgency is taking an increasing toll, killing Iraqi civilians and
security workers at a faster rate". ( New York Times, 14 July)
In reality the US has given up hope of militarily
defeating the insurgency with US forces and is now relying on Iraqi-ization
— training and equipping Iraqi security forces to take over the fight.
"It’s a race against time because by the end of this coming
summer we can no longer sustain the presence we have now", said
retired General Barry McCaffrey, who visited Iraq in June: "The
thing is, the wheels are coming off it".
US imperialism has reached the limits of its
military resources with respect to ground forces, which are crucial to
sustaining an occupation. Despite lowering enlistment standards, the
army and the marines are failing to meet their recruitment targets,
falling 40% short in some months. Recruiters are meeting more and more
resistance in high schools, and their morale is falling. "According
to the army, since October 2002 some 30 army recruiters have gone
AWOL". (Michael Bronner, The recruiters’ war, Vanity Fair,
September 2005)
Up to 35% of US forces in Iraq are from the Reserve
and National Guard. But as more of these troops are now approaching
their two-year maximum call-up limit, the supply of these forces is
running out. "By next fall, we’ll have expended our ability to
use National Guard brigades as one of our principle forces",
commented General McCaffrey. "We’re reaching the bottom of the
barrel". (New York Times, 11 July 2005) The chief of the Army
Reserve, Lt-general James Helmy has repeatedly warned that the Reserve
is "rapidly degenerating into a broken force".
By intervening in Afghanistan and Iraq, US military
forces have been stretched to extreme limits. Even Rumsfeld recognises
the political impossibility of returning to the draft after the
experience of the Vietnam war, when demoralisation and dissatisfaction
of conscripted troops played a major parting the disintegration of US
forces. "There isn’t a chance in the world that the draft will be
brought back", Rumsfeld told Congress. (New York Times, 24 June) An
AP-Ipsos poll found seven out of ten Americans oppose any return to the
draft, with opposition especially strong among younger people and women.
(New York Times, 24 June)
While Bush continues in public to beat the drum
about ‘the war on terrorism’, his regime has been forced to abandon
this empty propaganda slogan masquerading as a strategy. In July, the
Bush administration began to play down the war on terror (WOT) in favour
of the ‘global struggle against violent extremism’ (GSAVE). (UPI 26
July)
Incredibly, in view of the prominence of the WOT
strategy, General Meyers, chief of the general staff, announced (1
August) that he had "objected to the use of the term ‘war on
terrorism’ before, because if you call it a war, then you think of
people in uniform being the solution".
What is this, if not an admission that the US
military cannot win? Another US general, Chiarelli, writing in the
Military Review, warns that the US cannot succeed in Iraq unless it
adopts ‘broad spectrum’ operations, embracing economic, social and
political reconstruction. "A gun on every street corner, although
visually appealing, provides only a short-term solution", he
writes. It "does not equate to long-term security grounded in a
democratic process".
"The cultural reality is that no matter what
the outcome of a combat operation, for every insurgent put down, the
potential exists to grow many more if cultural mitigation is not
practiced". (New York Times, 22 August)
But it is too late for US imperialism to recover any
real control in Iraq. "The stark reality", comment Samuel
Berger and Brent Scowcroft, veterans of the US foreign policy
establishment who warned Bush against invading Iraq, "is that the
US does not have the right structural capacity to stabilise and rebuild
nations". (Washington Post, 27 July)
What is the character of the insurgency?
THE INSURGENCY IN Iraq is, in reality, a
predominantly Sunni insurgency, which operates mainly in the so-called
‘Sunni triangle’ and Baghdad. While it draws wider support from
overwhelming hatred of foreign occupation, its active forces appear to
be mainly ex-Baathist members of Saddam’s former state apparatus and
right-wing Sunni Islamists. Most prominent is Tawhid al-Jihad, recently
re-named Al Qaeda in Iraq, led by the Jordanian al-Zarqawi. Although
there appears to have been an increase in foreign ‘jihadists’, most
of the Islamist insurgents come from within the country. Over recent
months, the Islamists appear to have become a stronger element within
the Sunni insurgency.
This is not a national liberation movement on the
model of third-world liberation movements during the 1960s and 1970s,
such as Algeria, Vietnam, Angola, and others. We unreservedly defend the
right of the Iraqi people to take up arms against imperialist
occupation. But we should have no illusions in the character and aims of
the Sunni resistance. The insurgency is fighting US imperialism, but
that in itself does not give it progressive aims.
In Vietnam, for instance, the National Liberation
Front led a long and savage guerrilla war against US imperialism and its
quisling governments in South Vietnam. As a by-product of the guerrilla
war, there were many episodes of attacks, bombings, assassinations, etc,
which resulted in the death of non-combatant civilians. Some of the
methods of the NLF, which was linked to the Stalinist regime in North
Vietnam, would not have been the chosen tactics of the working class.
But such ‘excesses’, inevitable during a guerrilla war, were
outweighed by the struggle for national liberation and progressive
social change – which had the support of the overwhelming majority of
Vietnamese. The NLF stood for the reunification of North and South
Vietnam and the abolition of landlordism and capitalism, with the
extension of the planned economy into the South.
In contrast to this, the Baathist-Islamist
insurgency in Iraq does not stand for progressive social aims. The two
main elements within it are either fighting for the restoration of
Baathist power or the establishment of a Sunni Islamic state, not for
national liberation for the Iraqi people. Even if they were able to take
control of the central provinces, within a loose federation, they would
re-establish a dictatorship, which would mean the continued repression
of the Shia population and minorities. They have not come out against
landlords and capitalists, or tribal leaders, and have not even put
forward a programme against the sweeping, US-sponsored privatisations
now taking place.
As the Sunnis form a minority of the population
(about 20%), and are in a minority in Baghdad, the insurgency cannot
hope to recapture the dominant position in the country they enjoyed
under Saddam. Their aim is to make the US-sponsored occupation regime
unworkable and block the formation of a Shia/Kurd-dominated state in
which Sunnis would be a marginalized minority. The Islamists in
particular are motivated by the aim of preventing the formation of a
Shia-dominated state, which they see as strengthening the regional
influence of the Iranian (Shia) state.
Their lack of positive objectives is reflected in
their nihilistic tactics, especially the use of suicide bombers and
indiscriminate car bombings which take a horrendous toll on civilian
lives. In the first period of the occupation, the Sunni forces directed
their fire mainly against US and other occupying forces. But as the US
has adopted more cautious, defensive tactics, the insurgents
increasingly turned their attacks against Iraqi collaborators, such as
members of the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Sunni Association of Muslim
scholars, who are participating in the occupation regime. But they have
also attempted systematically to kill doctors, lawyers, and other
professionals in an attempt to bring about complete social break-down.
Suicide bombers have also targeted would-be recruits to the police and
army, mostly driven by unemployment and poverty to seek jobs in the
ramshackle security forces.
Sunni insurgents have repeatedly attacked Shia
targets, mosques, clerics, pilgrims, festivals, and so on. Clearly, the
aim has been to provoke a sectarian civil war. Shia leaders have tried
to prevent retaliatory attacks, fearing that all-out, sectarian civil
war would cut across their efforts, through partial collaboration with
the occupying power, to create a constitutional framework for a Shia-dominated
Iraq in which they can consolidate their power.
A growing number of retaliatory attacks are taking
place, however. "The army and police recruits killed by the suicide
bombers are mostly Shia", writes Patrick Cockburn. "There are
also near-daily massacres of working-class Shias. Now the Shias have
started to strike back. The bodies of Sunnis are being found in rubbish
dumps across Baghdad. ‘I was told in Najaf by senior leaders that they
have killed upwards of a thousand Sunnis’, an Iraqi official said.
Often the killers belong, at least nominally, to the government’s
paramilitary forces, including the police commandos. These commandos
seem to be operating under the control of certain Shias, who may be
members of the Badr Brigade, the military arm of the Supreme Council for
the Islamic Revolution in Iraq [SCIRI], and the country’s largest
militia with up to seventy thousand members". (Looking for someone
to kill, London Review of Books, 4 August 2005)
"Since the Shia parties took over the
government in April", reports the New York Times, "the number
of killings of Sunnis has increased, especially in mixed neighbourhoods
of Baghdad, like Ur. Fifty or more families have moved out to areas
where Sunnis predominate" – an escalating process of ‘ethnic
cleansing. (Killing off Sunnis, One by One, New York Times, 5 July)
The thoroughly reactionary character of Sunni
Islamic insurgent forces is shown by their role in towns like Haditha
(pop. 90,000) in the Sunni triangle (140 miles north-west of Baghdad),
which they control, despite occasional sweeps by US forces. A report by
Omer Mahdi (Guardian, 22 August) reveals that the town is completely
controlled by a coalition of Ansar al-Sunna and al-Qaeda in Iraq, who
run it like "a miniature Taliban-like state".
Alcohol and music are banned, and women’s conduct
is closely monitored. Summary ‘justice’ is meted out on the town
square, with public floggings, mutilations and beheadings. Other towns
in the region, like Qaim, Rawa Anna and Ramadi, appear to be run in the
same way.
This report presents a horrifying vision of what a
Sunni insurgent regime could be like in the Sunni triangle, with the
real possibility of such a Taliban-like regional regime developing
within a loose Iraqi federation. A struggle for territory and resources
between Sunni, Kurdish and Shia regional states or sub-states would open
the prospect of Balkan-type ethnic cleansing and protracted sectarian
conflict.
Moves by Shia and Kurdish leaders to form separate
sub-states in the North and the south, taking control of the main oil
resources, may in the short run increase support for the Sunni
insurgency. But the leaders of this rebellion, whether ex-Baathists or
right-wing Islamists, offer no real way forward for the people of the
Sunni-majority areas. The workers, small traders, peasants and other
exploited layers carried the main burden of exploitation, oppression and
war under Saddam and now carry it under imperialist occupation. If in
the future they are subjected to a Taliban or Saudi-type regime, that
would be exchanging one form of hell for another.
Some Shia leaders, like Moktada al-Sadr, whose base
is in mixed Shia-Sunni areas, such as Baghdad, the South and even in
parts of the ‘Sunni triangle’, have tried to cut across sectarian
and communal divisions, calling united demonstrations of Shia and
Sunnis. "After all, we are one united people whether we are Sunnis
or Shiites, Kurds or Arabs", proclaimed a prominent Sadr supporter.
(Associated Press/IHT 20 August) A Shia-Sunni conflict in Baghdad, for
instance, could trigger a conflict throughout the country, as there are
Shias living in almost every region.
Al-Sadr’s Islamic aims and support for clerical
rule, however, severely limit his movement’s ability to appeal to
broad layers of workers and the oppressed. To defend themselves against
imperialist occupation, defend their communities, and fight for change
in the interest of working people, the working class needs its own
democratic organisation. As opposed to some form of Islamic theocracy,
in which the landlords, capitalists and tribal leaders would dominate
society, workers’ organisations will have to fight for a socialist
economy and a democratic socialist solution to Iraq’s complex national
problems.
Bush’s best-laid plans…
THE BUSH REGIME’S ‘plan’ for Iraq has had two
main planks: ‘Iraqi-ization’, handing over security to Iraqi forces,
the new national army, police, and security services; and establishing a
new political framework, legalised by a new constitution and legitimised
by a referendum, creating a new ‘democratic’ Iraq. On this basis,
the US hoped to establish a stable, pro-US state and rapidly begin
withdrawing US troops, possibly in spring 2006. But things have not
worked out as they intended.
From March 2003 to May this year, the US directly
controlled the occupation regime. They ruled through their proconsuls,
Jay Gardener and Paul Bremer, and then – after the bogus handover of
‘sovereignty’ - through the Allawi government, composed of wealthy
exiles like Chalabi and Allawi himself, long sponsored by the Pentagon
and the CIA. After the January elections, however, it was no longer
possible for the US to dictate every aspect of policy to the Jafaari
government, despite the armed ‘authority’ of imperialist forces and
a 1200-strong US diplomatic-intelligence bureaucracy operating within
the ‘green zone’. The Jafaari government is undoubtedly
collaborating with the US, but it is also subject to immense pressure
from the forces it represents.
It is based on an alliance-of-convenience between
political forces that have strong support on the ground, including
powerful militias. On the basis of a high turnout in the January
election, the Kurdish nationalist leaders of the KDP (Kurdistan
Democratic Party) and DUK (Democratic Union of Kurdistan), won 26% of
the votes and 75 seats (out of 275). The Shiite list, sponsored by the
Grand Ayahatollah Ali al-Sistani, emerged as the biggest bloc (with 48%
of the votes and 140 seats). It includes various Shia parties and
secular Shia groups like that of Ahmed Chalabi, but is dominated by the
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), led by Aziz
al-Hakim, and the Dawa (‘Call’) of Iraq’s prime minister, Ibrahim
Jaafari. Bush tries to present the war in Iraq as a struggle between the
democracy-loving people of Iraq and the evil forces of terrorism. In
reality, the occupation would already have become completely untenable
without the US’s collaboration with the Shia and Kurdish parties,
which have established de facto rule in the their respective regions and
are more and more openly pursuing their own aims – which will come
into conflict with US imperialism.
Kurdistan
KUDISTAN ALREADY HAS a high degree of autonomy.
After the first Gulf war (1990-91), western imperialism provided
military protection for the Kurdish region (the "no fly zone")
as part of its strategy of strangling Saddam’s regime. The Kurdish
nationalist leaders collaborated with US imperialism during the invasion
and peshmerga militia have actively supported US forces against the
Madhi army and Sunni insurgents – "building up a rich storehouse
of future vendettas" as the Financial Times put it (8 August). The
quid pro quo, as far as Kurdish leaders are concerned, is effective
autonomy within a loose Iraqi confederation.
In June, the Kurdish National Assembly was convened,
with KDP leader Masood Barzan elected president of Kurdistan. The
government has at least 50,000 persmergas under its control in
Kurdistan, with other contingents forming units of the Iraqi army
throughout the country. There is mass support, moreover, for
independence. Two million Kurds voted in a referendum in January, with
98% favouring independence.
The main aim of the Kurdish leaders in negotiations
on the constitution has been to preserve the widest possible
interpretation of the ‘federalism’ prescribed by the US-imposed
Transitional Administrative Law (TAL). By the same measure, they are
happy for the Shia south to implement a high degree of autonomy. As
Kurdish society, historically Sunni, is overwhelmingly secular, they do
not want a constitution that imposes an Islamic state. But they may well
calculate that they can live with loose wording in the constitution that
will allow them to follow the region’s secular traditions.
The Kurdish leaders, however, are determined to
consolidate and extend their autonomous region. A key aim is to take
control of Kirkuk and the north’s major oil field. They claim that the
city is historically ‘a Kurdish city’ and call for Kirkuk to be the
capital of the Kurdish region. But this is strongly opposed by the
Turcoman, Arabs, Assyrians and Chaldians who also live there.
Officially, the status of Kirkuk has been postponed until a later date,
and was not part of the current constitutional negotiations.
Earlier this year, there were demonstrations in
Kirkuk by Turcomen and Arabs against the takeover of the municipal
administration by the Kurdish-dominated Kirkuk Brotherhood List. The
conflict between Arabs, who were moved into the city under Saddam’s
‘Arabization’ programme, and displaced Kurds, who want their
property back, is potentially explosive, as is the sharing out of oil
reserves between Kirkuk and the Kurdish region. "We are encouraging
our people to claim their rights peacefully", says Ali Mehdi, a
local Turcoman leader. But if talks with the Kurds break down,
"that will be the beginning of the civil war". (International
Herald Tribune, 12 August)
Moreover, the Turkish state has repeatedly warned
that it will intervene militarily if the Kurds take over Kirkuk. There
is unfortunately the horrendous possibility of Kirkuk becoming Iraq’s
"Sarajevo".
The Shia forces
IN THE SHIITE list, SCIRI and Dawa are the most
powerful Shia parties, and dominate the south. Both have well-armed
militias, and the SCIRI’s Badr Corps dominates the Iraqi army in the
south. They both stand for a form of Islamic state, and seek to replace
Iraq’s civil code with religious law administered by clerical courts,
which would particularly affect the status of women (marriage, divorce,
custody of children, property rights, access to education, employment
etc).
In fact, Shiite religious parties have already
established control over the southern cities, imposing a conservative
religious code on dress, alcohol, beards etc. The religious authorities
lay down the law, which is enforced by Iranian-style religious police.
At the beginning of August, Al-Hakim came out in
favour of a loose federal arrangement that would allow an autonomous
state in the south. The proposal undoubtedly had the support of Al-Sistani.
Although Shias are roughly 60% of the population, the SCIRI and Dawa
leaders recognise that they cannot dominate a centralised Iraqi state
and impose on the whole of Iraq the kind of Islamic regime they favour.
Given that the Kurds insist on autonomy (and currently have US backing
on this issue), the Shia leaders no doubt concluded that they should
demand autonomy for themselves in the south. This would confine the
Sunni leaders to a relatively weak central region. At the same time, it
would have the enormous advantage of giving the southern Shia decisive
control of the Basra oil fields, which account for about 80% of Iraq’s
reserves.
Dawa, and especially SCIRI, look to Iran for
support. Al-Sistani is, in fact, an Iranian. SCIRI supported Iran in the
Iran-Iraq war. Aziz al-Hakim advocates Iraqi reparations to Iran for the
Iran-Iraq war (1980-88). The new Iraqi oil minister has proposed
building a pipeline from Basra to the Iranian port of Abadan. In July,
the Iraqi defence minister signed an agreement with his Iranian
counterpart for Iran to provide military support and train the Iraqi
military. ‘Nobody’, the Iraqi minister said, clearly referring to
the US, ‘can dictate to Iraq its relations with other countries’.
Al-Hakim’s call for loose federation that would
allow autonomy for the south raises the prospect of a southern Iraqi
statelet that would, in effect, be a satellite of Iran. The biggest
irony of the Bush regime’s adventure in Iraq would be a strengthening
of the regional influence of Iran, viewed by Washington as the US’s
arch enemy ever since the 1979 revolution which brought the mullahs to
power.
There is another Shia force, however, which has
increasingly come into conflict with the SCIRI-Dawa alliance. Moktada
al-Sadr has attacked the collaboration between SCIRI-Dawa and the
occupation authority, leading the Mahdi Army in two uprisings last year
against US forces. Although Sadr agreed to join the ‘political process’
in January (and has a contingent of deputies in the National Assembly),
the tension between the Madhi Army and SCIRI’s Badr Corps has
sharpened during the constitutional negotiations.
Al-Sadr also wants an Islamic republic, but he has
criticised Sistani and al-Hakim’s alliance with Iran and he opposes a
loose federation that would allow an autonomous south or even an
independent southern statelet. His base is among the Shia poor of
Baghdad (particularly the vast Sadr City slum) and other cities,
including in the south (for example, Basra, Nasiriyiah, Amara, etc).
Sadr has called demonstrations demanding water, electricity and food for
the poor. There is a strong Iraqi nationalist element in his appeal and,
unlike al-Hakim and others, he has called for unity between Shias and
Sunnis. With a powerful base in Baghdad and its surrounds, Sadr is
strongly opposed to a loose federation, fearing that the South would
take the lion’s share of the country’s oil resources, leaving
Baghdad and the central provinces severely impoverished. Tensions around
the constitutional negotiations undoubtedly fuelled the violent clashes
between the Mahdi Army and SCIRI’s Badr Corps that flared up on 24-25
August, following attempts by Badr militia to prevent Sadr reopening his
office in Najaf. The fighting that followed showed that Sadr has armed
support in most of the country’s Shiite cities.
Stitching up a constitution
FOLLOWING THE PROTRACTED negotiations
(February-April) that produced the Jafaari government, the Bush regime
exerted intense pressure on the new national assembly to produce a draft
constitution by 14 August, to be put to a referendum in October. This
completely arbitrary timetable was dictated by Bush’s domestic agenda,
with the US mid-term Congressional elections just over a year away. Bush
needs to be able to proclaim ‘progress’, with the suggestion (if not
promise) of an ‘exit strategy’ and US troop reductions by next
spring.
In reality, however, the chances of reaching a
consensus on a constitution were effectively zero from the beginning. At
the US’s insistence, additional, unelected, Sunni politicians were
included in the negotiating commission, with the aim of avoiding a
complete schism between the Shia-Kurdish majority and the Sunni
minority. But the Sunni politicians, who in any case appear to have a
very limited political base and are denounced by Sunni insurgents, had
no weight in the negotiations. The real bargaining took place between
the Shia (SCIRI-Dawa) and the Kurdish leaders, and the Sunni negotiators
were effectively sidelined. More fundamentally, even if the commission
had been able to agree on a compromise constitution (even vaguer and
more contradictory than the final draft), it would not have in any way
resolved the real conflict between Iraq’s contending forces.
The three most contentious issues throughout the
negotiations were Islam, the status of women, and federalism. According
to Article Two, "Islam is the official religion of the state and
the basic source of legislation" and "No law can be passed
that contradicts the undisputed rules of Islam". It also says that
no law may contradict "the principles of democracy" or
"the rights and basic freedoms outlined in this constitution".
While guaranteeing the "Islamic identity of the majority of the
Iraqi people", it also guarantees "full religious rights for
all individuals and the freedom of creed and religious practices (like
Christian, Yazidis, Sabaean, Mandeans)".
Secular Sunni and Shia parties, Kurds and especially
women’s organisations fear that, in practice, these provisions will
mean Islamic law and mores being imposed on women. The provision that
25% of the National Assembly seats should be reserved for women, while
superficially progressive, will actually do nothing to safeguard the
democratic and civil rights of women. If a loose federal structure is
implemented, dominant religious parties will, in practice, be able to
impose an Islamic order. This could be reinforced, moreover, by the
appointment of a majority of Islamic clerics to the new Supreme Court.
Such is the desperation of the Bush regime to get
agreement on the draft, that US diplomats, led by US ambassador Zalmay
Khalilizad, put intense pressure on the secular parties to drop their
opposition to an Islamic Iraqi state. This totally contradicts Bush’s
claim, repeated recently from his Crawford ranch, that the US invaded
Iraq to promote the rights of women.
According to one report, "the US has eased its
opposition to an Islamic Iraqi state to help clinch a deal on a draft
constitution before tonight’s deadline. American diplomats backed
religious conservatives who threatened to torpedo talks over the shape
of the new Iraq unless Islam was a primary source of law. Secular and
liberal groups were dismayed at the move, branding it a betrayal of
Washington’s promise to advocate equal rights in a free and tolerant
society.
"According to Kurdish and Sunni negotiators,
the US ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, proposed that Islam be named ‘a
primary source’ and supported a wording which would give clerics
authority in civil matters such as divorce, marriage and inheritance…
‘We understand the Americans have sided with the Shias. It’s
shocking’, an unnamed Kurdish negotiator told Reuters. "They have
spent so much blood and money here, only to back the creation of an
Islamist state’." (Rory Carroll & Julian Borger, US relents
on Islamic law to reach Iraq deal, The Guardian, 22 August)
On federalism, Chapter Five confirms "the
region of Kurdistan and its existing power as a federal region" and
endorses "the new regions that will be established". Provinces
will readily be allowed to combine into regions and set up their own
legislative assemblies. This has to be seen in conjunction with the
provisions on oil (articles 109-110). "Oil and gas are the property
of all the people of Iraq in all the regions and provinces". The
federal government will administer extraction from "current
fields" in cooperation with provincial governments, distributing
revenues fairly according to population distribution. However, there
will be extra "quotas" for "a specified time" for
"regions that were deprived in an unfair way by the former
regime" – undoubtedly referring to the Shia south and Kurdistan.
As on other issues, the language is ambiguous and contradictory,
allowing plenty of scope for interpretation. The reference to current
wells has been interpreted as allowing regional governments to take over
all future oil development. In practice, distribution of oil wealth will
be decided by the balance of power between the regions. The implications
for the resource-poor central provinces and Baghdad are clear to
everyone.
The central government, the ‘federal authority’,
is charged with maintaining the national unity of Iraq and given
exclusive powers on foreign policy, international agreements, and
defence. At the same time, regional authorities will have "the
right to amend the implementation of federal law in the region".
Once again, the balance between the central government and regional
governments will depend on the strength of the contending forces.
In negotiations, the Sunnis also objected to clauses
banning ex-Baath party members from public office. The final version no
longer bans the Baath ‘party’, but excludes "the Saddamist
Baath and its symbols, under any name" from participation in the
"multilateral party system". On Sunni-Iraqi nationalistic
grounds, the Sunni negotiators oppose reference to "its Arab people
are part of the Arab world", demanding characterisation of Iraq as
an "Arab nation". They also object to recognising Kurdish as a
second official language. (Independent, 27 August)
Towards the end of the negotiations, Sunni leaders
protested that they had been strung along and ultimately ignored. Saleh
Mutlak, one of the Sunni negotiators said: "I don’t trust the
Shiites anymore. Frankly, I don’t trust the Americans". "If
this constitution passes, the streets will rise up". (Iraq faces
rage over draft, International Herald Tribune 24 August)
Constitutional crisis
AFTER THREE EXTENSIONS of the 15 August deadline,
the draft Iraqi constitution was presented to the National Assembly on
28 August – without the agreement of the Sunni negotiators. Despite
intense pressure from the US, including personal phone calls from Bush
to Shia leaders, no substantial concessions were made on federalism, the
decisive issue for the Sunnis. Proclaimed a ‘triumph’ by most Shia
leaders, and celebrated on the streets in many Shia areas, the
constitution (in the words of Sunni negotiator Mahmoud al-Masadani)
"contains the seeds of the division of Iraq". This was
inevitable, given that the negotiating process has taken place under
conditions of military occupation and incipient civil war. Bush’s push
for a constitution is now likely to push the country even more rapidly
towards all-out civil war.
The draft constitution is likely to be passed by the
Assembly, which is dominated by the SCIRI-Dawa alliance and the Kurdish
parties. This in itself will undoubtedly lead to an intensification of
the insurgency, with increased support from Sunnis incensed by a
constitution that appears to politically marginalize them and exclude
them from a proportionate share of the country’s oil wealth. As a
warning insurgents launched some of their most daring and deadly attacks
in the centre of Baghdad during the last stages of the constitutional
negotiations.
However, in the constitutional referendum due before
15 October, Sunnis, who probably form a majority of the population in
four provinces, have a good chance of vetoing the new constitution
(which can be blocked by a two-thirds majority in any three provinces).
It is also possible that others, secular people, women, and minorities,
dismayed at the legalised dominance of Islam and the implicit denial of
human rights, will vote against the charter. Alternatively, there could
be a mass boycott among the Sunni population. The Sunni negotiators,
effectively appointed by the US occupying authority, have no real
political base among the mass of Sunnis, and have been further
discredited by their failure to win any real concessions from the Shia
parties. During the negotiations, insurgents assassinated two Sunni
members of the negotiating committee and also attacked members of Sunni
parties campaigning for voter registration for the October referendum.
If the constitution is carried in the referendum,
the insurgency in the Sunni areas will become even more intense, opening
the possibility of an all-out civil war. It cannot be ruled out that, if
the SCIRI-Dawa and Kurdish leaders feel their plans are being derailed,
they will try to use their powerful militia forces to attempt to smash
the Sunni insurgency. Until now, they have been happy to sit back and
allow the US military to take on the insurgency. But this could change
if they feel they are within reach of implementing a constitutional
carve-up that satisfies their respective ambitions.
If, however, the constitution is defeated in the
referendum, the SCIRI-Dawa block and the Kurds are likely to move
towards the de facto implementation of the loose federal structure
outlined by the constitution. In fact, if they are no longer constrained
by a (rejected) constitution, they may well go even further. If the
referendum fails, says Peter Galbraith, a former US diplomat and an
advisor to the Kurdish leaders, the Kurds may push for full independence
from Iraq: "If this constitution is rejected, the next negotiations
are going to be about partition of the country". (Iraqis finish
draft charter, Washington Post, 29 August) However, they may not wait
for negotiations, but first seek to establish ‘facts on the ground’.
Growing discontent
THERE IS GROWING mass discontent with the Jafaari
government, which has not improved security or public services.
"They are interested in their personal interests only and not in
the public interest of Iraq and its people", said Haydar al-Saad,
34, a painter and a Shiite. There is similar scepticism about the
politicians involved in negotiating the constitution. "What can I
do with a constitution if I have no water, gasoline and
electricity?" asks a young Shiite woman.
The political leaders who fill the assembly are
overwhelmingly linked to landlords, capitalists, merchants and tribal
leaders, together with wealthy exiles who returned under the US
occupation. They do not represent workers, the urban poor, the rural
poor, or even most middle-class layers. They do not represent the
majority of their claimed confessional constituencies, whether Shia,
Sunni or whatever. Interestingly, the New York Times recently reported
that "in spite of the obvious sectarian divides among the country’s
political parties, and a sectarian tinge to some of the country’s
violence, a random sampling of ordinary Iraqis here and in several other
cities this week revealed that sentiment about the constitution often
does not hew to any such divisions. In fact, many Iraqis say, religious
allegiances rarely intrude on everyday life: Shiites marry Sunnis,
Muslims shop alongside Christians, everyone waits in the same long lines
to get gas and suffers the same power and water shortages". (26
August)
But in the coming months, with the prospect of
increased tensions being fomented between the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish
regions by sectarian and nationalist groups, there will be a potentially
explosive situation in Baghdad. Roughly a third of Iraq’s population
lives in the capital. It has huge poverty-stricken layers, many migrants
from provincial towns and the countryside, drawn from all communities
and regions. The capital is a centre of the Sunni insurgency, and also
of al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army.
But neither the politicians nor the militias can
provide solutions for workers and the poor. If the capital is starved of
resources as oil wealth is diverted elsewhere, there will be a
horrendous situation. Baghdad could become like Beirut during the
Lebanon civil war in the 1970s – a hotbed of sectarian and communal
rivalries, a bloody battleground for rival warlords and militias – and
for outside imperialist and regional powers.
They only way to ensure that such a fate is averted
is for the working class to organise and take action to defend the
interest of working people and all oppressed strata of society. For a
start, they need their own democratic organisations, defence committees
embracing all sections of the community to provide protection and fight
for essential services, food, and employment.
There has been some revival of trade unions,
particularly the oil workers in the Basra region. But the leaders of the
main trade union federation, the Iraqi Federation of Trade Unions, has
to some extent collaborated with the occupation authority, and trade
union struggles have mainly been on an industrial and economic level.
The unions have not taken any political initiatives. There is an urgent
need, however, for the working class to rebuild its own mass political
organisations and develop a socialist programme. It is essential to
unite workers and the rural poor with a programme that cuts across
religious, communal, and ethnic divisions. A revived workers’ movement
is required to fight to end the occupation and imperialist domination of
the economy, particularly the sweeping programme of privatisation which
is placing Iraqi assets into the hands of multinational corporations.
A fight for democratic and trade union rights has to
be combined with a struggle against capitalism, landlordism, and tribal
fiefdoms, which provide the basis for oppressive feudal practices. Given
the explosive character of the nation question in Iraq, it is vital that
the workers’ movement puts forward a socialist programme on the
national question. This should be based on the right of the national
groups to self-determination, while guaranteeing the rights of
minorities. Such a programme, however, has to be linked to the idea of a
planned, socialist economy — the only way of avoiding a divisive
struggle over scarce resources.
Given the current weakness of the working class in
Iraq, such a revival of workers’ organisations and socialist ideas may
seem somewhat distant. Working-class solidarity and socialist policies,
however, offer the only way of avoiding civil war and bloody ethnic
clashes. Without a powerful initiative from the working class, Iraq
faces the prospect of a vicious cycle of bloody national conflicts,
ethnic cleansing, and so on, on the lines of the former Yugoslavia in
the early 1990s. The constitution now being proposed by the majority
parties is not a recipe for stability and the harmonious co-existence of
peoples and regions. On the contrary, it is likely to be a catalyst for
disintegration and conflict, which will spill over into the surrounding
states.
The Iraq storm-centre
BUSH HAS INTERRUPTED his Crawford ranch holiday
several times to make speeches proclaiming that the US will ‘stay the
course’ in Iraq. Behind the scenes, however, the Bush regime is
preparing to cut and run. Faced with a growing anti-war mood,
strengthened by Cindy Sheehan’s protest, Bush is desperate to
demonstrate ‘progress’ in Iraq and prepare the way for US troop
reductions next year – before November’s mid-term elections.
This accounts for the tremendous pressure applied on
Iraqi negotiators to come up with a constitution by the 14 August
deadline, in time for a referendum and elections by the end of the year.
For the White House, the timetable was more important than the terms of
the constitution, which effectively sacrifices democratic and women’s
rights to Islamic authority. Moreover, by sidelining the Sunni
population, it is likely to pave the way to the fragmentation of the
country and a slide towards civil war.
Apart from the overthrow of Saddam, formerly US
imperialism’s favoured ally against Iran in the 1980s, the US has
achieved none of its objectives in launching the war against Iraq. The
primary military objective of taking secure control of Iraq has not been
accomplished. US generals frankly admit that US, British and other
western forces will never defeat the insurgency. Recently, top
commanders, including Middle East chief, Abizaid, have been pushing for
withdrawals, fearing the disintegration of the army if it is stretched
any further. "We believe", said director of operations,
General Douglas Lute, "at some point, in order to break this
dependence on the coalition, you simply have to back off and let the
Iraqis step forward". Ultimately, the minimum objectives will be to
maintain four permanent bases (now being built) as a basis for future US
interventions in the region.
The US has not struck a devastating blow against the
enemy in Bush’s declared ‘war against terrorism’. The CIA recently
reported that, on the contrary, US occupation has turned Iraq, which had
no connection with 9/11, into "a training ground in which novice
terrorists are schooled in assassinations, kidnappings, car bombings and
other terror techniques… Iraq could prove to be more effective than
Afghanistan in the early days of Al Qaeda as a place to train terrorists
who could then disperse to other parts of the world, including the
US". (Bob Herbert, It just gets worse, New York Times, 11 July
2005) Now, General Myers, chief of the general staff, has repudiated the
concept of ‘the war against terrorism’, and even Rumsfeld has
quietly dropped it.
The Bush regime has not realised the
neo-conservative hawks’ fantasy of imposing a democratic, secular,
pro-American state on the Iraqi people from outside. Bogged down in a
post-Vietnam quagmire, the second-term Bush and Condoleezza Rice
administration have embraced a ‘new realism’, approving a
constitution that opens the gates to a dictatorial Islamic state, or
collection of rival sub-states.
The strategists of US imperialism and many of the
top military commanders are well aware that the new constitution places
open civil war on the agenda. For instance, despite growing demands from
the Iraqi army leaders for heavy weapons, the US is refusing to supply
them with armoured vehicles, tanks, helicopters and heavy artillery. A
senior US officer in Baghdad told the New York Times that they are
worried that heavy arms could end up aimed at US forces or feeding a
"civil war or a coup". (29 August)
Before the invasion, the Bush regime proclaimed that
the ‘democratisation’ of Iraq would be part of a sweeping democratic
transformation of the whole Middle East, a cartoon comic scenario
elaborated by Rice in particular. As a result of its intervention,
however, imperialism now faces a far more unstable, volatile situation
in the region.
This will be exacerbated by moves towards the
break-up of Iraq and conflict between the different sections of the
population. Predominantly Sunni states, like Syria and Saudi Arabia,
will not sit idly by as Sunni Iraqis are excluded from power, ghettoised
in an impoverished central region, or attacked by sections of the Shia
majority. On the other hand, the Iranian state will inevitably have
close links with a Southern Iraqi sub-state, using it to extend its
regional influence. At the same time, if the leaders of Kurdistan
attempt to incorporate Kirkuk and precipitate a Sarajevo-type conflict,
the Turkish state will undoubtedly intervene in some way.
US intervention in Iraq, in short, has triggered a
process of Balkanisation that will have devastating repercussions
throughout the Middle East. This is precisely why Bush senior, wiser
than his son, decided not to occupy Baghdad at the end of the Gulf war
in 1991.
Oil has gone above $70 a barrel, in no small measure
due to turmoil in the Middle East. US expenditure on the war, which one
Harvard economist estimates could cost $1.3 trillion (in direct and
indirect costs) if it continues for five years, will increasingly weigh
down the debt-ridden US economy.
The US is facing military defeat in Iraq, despite
its overwhelming superiority of military technology and armed forces.
Bush has signally failed to bury the ‘Vietnam syndrome’, and now
faces the same problem as Nixon had in Vietnam. An early retreat,
without having secured a stable, pro-US regime, would be a defeat.
Hanging on, only to retreat later, under even worse conditions, would
lead to an even more ignominious defeat.
US imperialism has already suffered a devastating
political defeat internationally through its adventuristic war on Iraq.
Its prestige among international and regional powers has slumped, while
its conduct of the war, the abuse of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and
other locations, US support for the Israeli state’s policies, and Bush’s
trampling on democratic rights at home, have all stimulated an
unprecedented global wave of anti-Americanism.
The cost of war
IN 2003 THE Bush administration projected the cost
of the war in Iraq and its aftermath at between $50bn and $60bn. Iraq
would be able to ‘shoulder much of the burden’ of reconstruction
because of its oil wealth, claimed Bush’s spin doctor, Ari Fleisher.
So far, the total cost of war in Iraq and
Afghanistan, including four ‘emergency supplementals’, is $300bn, or
$1,180 per person in the US.
"Since the 9/11 attacks, Congress has given the
president $350 billion to fight terrorism and for combat and
reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan". (House readies more war
spending, USA Today, 16 June 2005) "That matches the cost of the
Korean war in today’s dollars, according to Steve Kosiak, director of
budget studies for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments".
The Iraq war is now costing about $5bn a month – a
similar amount (adjusted for inflation) to average spending on the
Vietnam war between 1965-75. The Iraq war could easily cost $600bn by
the end of Bush’s second term, in 2008.
"The US spent $623bn on the Vietnam conflict,
according to the [Congressional Research] Service, using figures
adjusted for inflation. If president Bush’s new $81.9bn emergency
request is implemented, US war costs since the September 11 attacks will
be half that". (War costs may exceed $300 billion, Fox
News/Associated Press, 17 February 2005)
The Pentagon’s 2005-06 budget is a phenomenal
$409bn. Total military spending, however, including Pentagon spending,
Homeland Security and military-related R&D, is $511bn. Including the
four ‘special appropriations’, the Pentagon’s annual budget has
increased by 41% since 2001.
Linda Bilmes, a professor of public accounting at
Harvard University, gives an even higher estimate of Iraq war spending.
To the direct military costs, she adds estimates of other costs, such as
disability and health payments to returning troops, the increased cost
of oil, increased subsidies to states like Jordan, Pakistan and Turkey,
and increased Federal debt payments resulting from a bigger deficit.
"If the American military presence in the region lasts another five
years, the total outlay for the war could stretch to more than $1.3
trillion, or $11,300 for every household in the United States".
(Waging the trillion-dollar war, NYT 22 August 2005)
War spending on this scale will inevitably act as a
drag on US capitalism, already burdened with unprecedented levels of
foreign and domestic debt.
US opposition grows
CINDY SHEEHAN’S OUTSPOKEN peace vigil outside Bush’s
Crawford ranch, where he’s taking a five-week vacation, has
crystallised the growing anti-war mood among wider and wider sections of
the US public, including among many who previously supported the war –
and re-ignited the anti-war movement. Between 50,000 and 100,000 people
held candlelit vigils in support of Sheehan around the country on 17
August. As the grieving mother of a soldier killed in Iraq, Sheehan
strikes a chord with all those appalled by the rising toll of deaths and
injuries. Over 1,860 US troops have been killed in Iraq.
Last November Bush was able to gain re-election
through exploiting deep fears aroused by the 9/11 attacks. Kerry and the
cowardly Democrats, big-business politicians, did not effectively oppose
the war or offer an alternative. Even now, with few exceptions, they are
not giving voice to the anti-war mood, but trailing behind it.
The boost Bush gained from his re-election and the
apparent ‘success’ of the January elections in Iraq, however, was
short-lived. The public mood has shifted steadily and decisively against
the war and Bush’s conduct of the war.
A series of opinion polls have registered the
growing anti-war mood. Over half (54%) think it was a mistake to send US
troops to Iraq. Only 28% think it has made the US safer. Only 34%
approve of Bush’s conduct of the war. His overall approval rating is
down to under 40%, compared with 88% after the 9/11 attacks. Less than
half (48%) believe that Bush is ‘honest’. Fifty-six percent favour
the withdrawal of some US troops; 33% are in favour of complete
withdrawal, double the 2003 figures.
General Barry McCafferey, a retired general, summed
it up: ‘The American people are walking away from this war’. Few
accept that the war should continue, as Bush asserts, ‘to honour’
those who have already given their lives.
More and more Republican politicians are turning
against the war, worried about their seats in next November’s midterm
elections. They were shaken by a recent special election (by-election)
in southern Ohio for a House of Representatives seat. The Democratic
candidate, Paul Hackett, an Iraq veteran who stood as an anti-war
candidate and criticised Bush as a ‘chicken hawk’, came near to
winning (48%) a district that usually goes two-to-one to the
Republicans. The election was undoubtedly affected by the death in Iraq
of 14 Ohio troops who were killed by a roadside bomb in Haditha.
Right-wing Republican Newt Gringrich, former Speaker
of the House, called this a ‘wake-up call’. "Any effort to
explain Iraq as: ‘We are on track and making progress’ is nonsense.
The left has a constant drum beat that this is Vietnam and a bottomless
pit. The daily and weekly casualties leave people feeling things aren’t
going well". (Bad Iraq news worries some in GOP, New York Times, 18
August 2005) John Duncan, a Tennessee Republican who opposed the war,
commented: ‘there is just no enthusiasm for this war… nobody is
happy about it’.
After his re-election, Bush boasted that he had
accumulated ‘political capital’ and he intended to spend it. His
political gold, however, turned out to be base metal. He has failed to
push through social security (Federal pension) privatisation, the key
plank of his domestic programme. On Iraq, despite his protestations that
he will ‘stay the course’, he is now desperate to find a rapid exit
strategy.
As a broad anti-war mood becomes stronger, the
anti-war movement is reviving. The leaders of the main anti-war
organisations, such as United for Peace and Justice (UFPJ), who
mistakenly orientate towards the Democrats, were demoralised by Bush’s
re-election and the ‘success’ of the Iraqi elections in January.
They did not energetically organise for the national demonstrations on
19 March, although there were demonstrations in many cities. It is now
likely, however, that the demonstrations planned for 24 September will
be on a massive scale.
Iraqi-ization
A KEY ELEMENT of Bush’s Iraq policy has been
handing over security to newly recruited Iraqi security forces, and a
huge proportion of ‘reconstruction’ funds have, in fact, been
diverted to training a new national army and police force.
US officials claim Iraqi security forces now have
77,000 soldiers and 94,000 police. However, Kurdish leader, Mahoud
Othman, believes the real figure for the army and the police is only
about 40,000 – the rest appear only to draw their pay or never
actually existed in the first place. "The few government [army]
battalions ready to fight are recruited from Kurdish or Shia militiamen
and are detested in Sunni areas". (Patrick Cockburn, Looking for
someone to kill, London Review of Books, 4 August 2005)
A report in July by US General Peter Pace concluded
that only a ‘small number’ of Iraqi forces are capably of fighting
insurgents without US assistance, while two-thirds were "partially
capable of fighting insurgents with US assistance". But senior
Pentagon officials said, "some US troops will likely accompany
Iraqi forces indefinitely, particularly in hostile areas of the
country". (Washington Post, 22 July 2005)
In Baghdad and the Sunni triangle, the police force
is heavily infiltrated by insurgents, while the army is dominated by
Kurds, former Pashmerga units. The Iraqi army and police are not
developing into a national security force – they reflect the divisions
within Iraqi society, their loyalties are to their own leaders, and
these ‘national’ forces will shatter in the event of the break-up of
Iraq or civil war.
|