Scotland’s shifting politics
With support for New Labour falling, there is a
new scramble between the parties hoping to form the next coalition
administration in the Scottish parliament. Many permutations are
possible. Meanwhile, out of the split in the SSP, has emerged a new
formation headed by Tommy Sheridan, Solidarity – Scotland’s Socialist
Movement. PHILIP STOTT reports.
THE REALISATION THAT ‘power’ is starting to slip
away has prompted a rebellion against Tony Blair by formerly loyal MPs
and members of the Scottish parliament (MSPs). New Labour is likely to
lose seats at next May’s Scottish parliament elections, with even the
possibility of it being removed from the ruling coalition in the
Scottish executive. A series of opinion polls have seen the Scottish
National Party (SNP) staging a certain recovery and beginning, once
again, to challenge New Labour. Most polls have Labour still ahead,
marginally, but there could be enough of a swing away to result in a
possible SNP-Lib Dem coalition, with support from the Greens, after May
next year.
New Labour’s hope is that a rapid removal of Blair
and his replacement with Gordon Brown before the May elections would
give it enough of a ‘Brown bounce’ to hold onto power in Scotland,
albeit with a reduced number of MSPs.
Both the SNP and the Lib Dems in Scotland have
looked at the possibility of forming a ruling coalition if the
parliamentary arithmetic allows it after May. UK Lib Dem leader Ming
Campbell said he "would not be hostile" to his party joining a coalition
with the SNP. However, a stumbling block could be the SNP’s policy to
hold an independence referendum if it forms an administration in
Holyrood. The Lib Dem leadership has so far said that it could not form
a coalition if the SNP insisted on a referendum as a deal breaker.
The SNP, New Labour, and the Lib Dems, have all been
attempting to woo the Scottish Greens, which currently have seven MSPs,
and could be decisive in the formation of a workable coalition. The
Greens are prepared to speak to anyone and, while not yet agreeing to
enter a formal coalition, are clearly moving in the direction of being
prepared to back an SNP-Lib Dem coalition. However, the Greens, who do
not oppose capitalism and whose sister parties in Europe have
participated in or supported neo-liberal capitalist governments,
including in Germany and Sweden, could also do a deal with New Labour
and the Lib Dems, a so-called ‘traffic light’ coalition. If Blair is
gone by May, for example, and Brown made an announcement about removing
troops from Iraq, a deal could be more likely.
If the SNP forms a coalition, it would pursue
pro-capitalist policies from the start as indicted by its pledge to cut
business rates and encourage a ‘business-friendly environment’. SNP
leaders consistently cite the example of countries like Ireland – whose
government is pursuing a war on the rights and conditions of the working
class – as a model for an independent Scotland.
However, the SNP up till now is not seen by most
working-class people as offering any real alternative policy to the New
Labour-Lib Dem executive. The SNP has struggled throughout the seven
years of the Scottish parliament’s existence to capitalise on the
powerful anti-New Labour mood. Its share of the vote has fallen
consistently. At last year’s Westminster general election it was
out-polled by the Lib Dems and came third. At root this falling support
reflected both the move to the right by the SNP leadership throughout
the last decade-and-a-half, and also a certain falling away of support
for independence since the setting up of the Scottish parliament.
The SNP dropped its commitment to renationalisation
of privatised industries and other mildly reformist policies in the
mid-1990s. Instead, it happily embraced the neo-liberal consensus that
dominated the policy of capitalist governments and parties
internationally. Recently, with the return of Alex Salmond as leader, it
has pledged to restore free education for students in Scotland and
continued its opposition to the occupation of Iraq. (The SNP only
opposed the initial invasion because it did not have UN backing. Now it
calls for the removal of British and US troops but supports their
replacement with a multi-national force, mainly from Muslim countries
including Pakistan.) While firmly pro-capitalist in outlook, the SNP has
also, from time-to-time, taken up populist and semi-radical campaigns.
These have included opposition to privatisation schemes – private
finance initiative (PFI) and private public partnership (PPP) – and
hospital closures. But in practice, SNP councillors have supported PFI
at local level to build schools, roads, etc, because there was ‘no other
alternative’.
In the absence of a significant working-class and
socialist alternative to New Labour policies, it is inevitable that the
SNP, and even the Lib Dems, can pick up support among working-class
people and sections of the middle class.
Independence election?
A RECENT YOUGOV poll for the Sunday Times, which
asked how people would vote in a referendum on Scottish independence,
found that 44% would vote yes and 42% no. This received widespread
coverage, with political commentators describing it as a significant
change in outlook following seven years of devolution. However, this
level of support is still below previous polls that asked the same
question in 1998, when more than 50% said they would vote yes in a
referendum.
Most opinion polls have tended to ask people what
option they prefer, for example, independence or some form of devolution
(either with the same powers or enhanced powers). When the question is
asked that way, a statistical analysis of attitudes, made in 2003, found
that 37% supported independence rather than devolution in 1997, but by
2001 this had fallen to 29%.
The mood around the national question in Scotland
undoubtedly receded following the establishment of the Scottish
parliament. This had a major impact on the SNP’s electoral support as
well. To a large extent this was a reflection of an initial mood that
the devolved parliament should be ‘given time’. However, while
supporting a ‘double Yes’ vote in the 1997 devolution referendum as a
democratic advance for the Scottish people (Yes for a Scottish
parliament, Yes for it to have tax-raising powers), the International
Socialists (CWI Scotland) explained then that the parliament lacked the
economic power to tackle the decisive issues facing the working class in
Scotland.
Even those powers available to the parliament have
been wielded like a neo-liberal battering ram by the Scottish executive.
An orgy of privatisation of public services, cuts in health provision,
and rising inequality has been the result of devolution. The YouGov poll
found that a majority of people believed that schools and the NHS had
not improved since the Scottish parliament was established. Forty
percent believed the NHS was actually worse now and 22% thought schools
had deteriorated.
The failure of devolution and the rampant
pro-capitalist policies of the Scottish executive have created an
increasing desire for change. This was underlined by the same poll that
found support for extending the powers available to the Scottish
parliament at 64%, with only 19% supporting the current devolved
settlement.
Next year’s elections coincide with the 300th
anniversary of the Act of Union, and it is inevitable that this focus
will be exploited, particularly by the SNP, including through the
promise of a referendum on independence. However, at this stage, the
SNP’s increase in support is mainly based on an anti-Labour mood, rather
than enthusiasm for the SNP or its programme.
The movement against attacks on pensions – which
produced the biggest strike action in decades in Scotland and across
Britain in March – NHS cuts, pay inequality, as well as the carnage in
Iraq and the Middle East generally, are still the main issues for
working-class people. But under these conditions, exacerbated by the
absence of a fighting, class alternative, support for independence can
grow. For a section of the working class, independence can seem to offer
a route out of poverty, low pay, and the problems caused by capitalism.
That does not mean that support for independence is
not growing compared to the situation after 1999 when the parliament was
set up. The war in Iraq, which the SNP argues would not have involved
Scottish troops if Scotland was independent and had control over defence
matters, can be a factor propelling a layer of people towards the idea
of independence. As is the announcement by Brown that under his
leadership a New Labour government will replace the Trident missile
system, based on the Clyde, with a updated version. The SNP has pledged
that in an independent Scotland it would scrap Trident and oppose new
nuclear power stations. A combination of these factors, and disgust at
New Labour’s pro-big business policies, can lead to a rise in support
for independence and also the SNP in the run up to the 2007 elections,
as could the fear of the return of the Tories to government in
Westminster.
However, this is not the only possible scenario. It
is not ruled out that if Brown replaces Blair before the elections there
could be a temporary halt to Labour’s declining support. Not because
Brown would pursue a different policy on fundamentals from Blair – as
one commentator said, it would be ‘Blairism with a Scottish accent’. But
there may be a (temporary) perception among some sections that Brown is
a ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’, waiting to come to power before unveiling
a hitherto hidden radical streak. Under these conditions, there could be
a more limited loss of seats for New Labour next year.
Whether New Labour suffers a heavy defeat or
survives due to a ‘least-worst option’ mood, the urgent need to build a
fighting socialist alternative requires immediate attention.
The Solidarity initiative
THE SPLIT IN the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP), as
a result of the actions of the SSP leadership following Tommy Sheridan’s
spectacular court victory over the News of the World, was a setback.
However, the launch of Solidarity – Scotland’s Socialist Movement, by
Tommy Sheridan and others including the International Socialists, does
at least offer the opportunity to rebuild the socialist movement in
Scotland. Even at this early stage, a few weeks after its launch,
Solidarity has outstripped the SSP in terms of the numbers of socialists
now organised under its banner. The massive wave of enthusiasm among the
working class that greeted Tommy Sheridan’s defamation victory can be
used to rebuild the socialist movement in the months ahead.
To achieve this, it is vital that the new party
turns to the working class with a bold campaigning programme, taking up
the day-to-day issues facing working-class communities suffering the
brunt of neo-liberal attacks, while offering a socialist alternative to
these attacks. That includes, of course, opposition to the imperialist
wars in the Middle East and the occupations in Iraq, Afghanistan and the
Palestinian Authority.
This strategy, however, put forward by the
International Socialists among others, has put the CWI in Scotland in
opposition to the Socialist Workers’ Party (SWP) which is opposed to
Solidarity-SSM being an expressly socialist party. The SWP argues that
the new party should overwhelmingly concentrate on anti-war work without
linking this to an explanation of the need for a socialist solution to
end war and imperialist-inspired slaughter. In effect, the SWP believes
that to argue for socialism and for a working-class orientation for
Solidarity will put people off joining. In practice, the opposite is the
case. If the new party bases itself on communities fighting NHS cuts and
school closures, on trade unionists in struggle, fights for a decent
minimum wage and an end to low pay and poverty, as well as anti-war and
anti-racist campaigning, then Solidarity can build a much bigger base,
influence and membership.
The SWP’s extremely narrow prescription for building
the ‘left’ in Scotland reflects a lack of confidence in the working
class’s ability to draw anti-capitalist and socialist conclusions. This
has led it to no longer being prepared to explain the need to build a
movement with socialist policies that stands for a complete break with
capitalism. In reality, Solidarity-SSM can build rapidly by offering a
socialist alternative to the pro-capitalist parties in Scotland,
including the SNP.
There will also be pressure on Solidarity-SSM, which
supports an independent socialist Scotland and a referendum on
independence, to call for a vote for ‘independence parties’ in May next
year. To succumb to this pressure, which the SSP may well do as it moves
in an even more nationalist direction after the split, means effectively
advocating a vote for the SNP in the constituency seats, where neither
the SSP nor Solidarity are likely to field candidates.
It is clear that the SNP will pursue pro-capitalist
policies in power. Inevitably, that will put it on a collision course
with the working class. Any policy that results in socialists advocating
a vote for the SNP would, in the eyes of working-class people, weaken
the ability of a new party to fight to defend working-class peoples’
interests. This would especially be the case on the basis of
experiencing an SNP government in practice.
While supporting a referendum and the right of the
Scottish people to independence should a majority support that, the CWI
will argue that Solidarity-SSM should take an independent working-class
position. That means opposition to the policies of the SNP and the other
capitalist parties, while fighting for the democratic rights of the
Scottish people.
The International Socialists will continue to fight
for an independent socialist Scotland, which we advocate should form a
free and equal partnership in a voluntary socialist confederation with
England, Wales and Ireland. In other words, we seek to defend the unity
of the working class that already exists between workers in Scotland and
other parts of Britain in the trade unions and in common struggle, while
waging an uncompromising struggle against capitalism in Scotland,
Britain and internationally.
The International Socialists will work to help build
the forces of Solidarity-SSM as a campaigning socialist party in the run
up to the May elections next year. Provided the new party makes itself
relevant to the working class and maintains its political independence
from the pro-capitalist establishment, the forces of socialism in
Scotland can rapidly advance in the months ahead.
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