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Will Obama deliver?
RIDING A TIDAL wave of anger at Bush, the economy,
and the Iraq war, the November elections saw a sweeping victory for
Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. There has been widespread
celebration at the Republicans’ defeat and the election of the first
African American president, an event of huge historic significance.
Massive expectations have been aroused that Obama will carry out
policies that will address the enormous problems facing workers and
young people.
But as the euphoria wears off, hard questions will
need to be examined. How will Obama and the Democrats use their new
power? Will Obama make good on his promises, especially regarding the
key issues of the economy, healthcare and the war in Iraq? Will there be
the fundamental change that Obama voters are hoping for? Obama and the
Democrats are taking power amid a massive crisis of US and world
capitalism, with the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, a
projected trillion dollar budget deficit reaching 6% of GDP, and the
unravelling of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
While millions hope Obama will take the country in a
new direction, a closer look at the reality of his positions and record,
as opposed to his vague calls for change, shows he is thoroughly tied to
the big business establishment. The gap between the huge expectations of
his supporters and the reality of Obama’s timid approach and corporate
policies was graphically shown within days of his election victory. The
New York Times reported: "President-elect Barack Obama has begun an
effort to tamp down what his aides fear are unusually high expectations
among his supporters". (6 November)
In another article it comments: "Obama’s soaring
speeches have created such a well of anticipation that there is a deep
danger of letdown. He talked during the campaign of a ‘new politics’
bringing Republicans and Democrats together. But if he really works with
Republicans to find common ground on issues like Iraq, terrorism and
climate change, he risks alienating his liberal base". (5 November)
Transition team
AN EARLY INDICATION of Obama’s politics was revealed
in his first major appointment, selecting congressman Rahm Emanuel to be
his chief of staff. Emanuel is a central figure in the Democratic
Leadership Council, which brings together the most conservative and
pro-business section of the Democratic Party. As a key advisor in the
Clinton administration, he was at the forefront of arguing for the
Democrats to embrace North American Free Trade Agreement, ‘welfare
reform’, and a law-and-order agenda. Running for Congress in 2002, he
supported the Iraq war, and he recently played a central role in
shepherding through Congress the $700 billion bailout for Wall Street.
Obama’s first post-election public appearance, held
with his economic advisory board, was another indication of the
direction his administration is headed. This group is almost entirely
made up of bankers, corporate executives, and conservative Democratic
Party economists, many of the same people responsible for the crisis
they are supposed to solve.
The 17 members of the panel include the billionaire
Warren Buffet, the richest man in the world, CEOs and senior executives
of Google, Hyatt Hotels, Time Warner, Xerox, JP Morgan Chase, and
TIAA-CREF (a private financial services company), as well as Ronald
Reagan’s former Federal Reserve chairman, Paul Volcker.
Obama’s economic team does not contain a single
representative from the labour movement, which gave hundreds of millions
of dollars to Obama and the Democrats. Nor does it have any
representatives from any of the civil rights or women’s organisations.
Obama no doubt heard plenty of advice from the big executives and
bankers on his handpicked panel. But where was the voice of working
people, the unemployed or those facing foreclosure?
Discussing how Obama will address the severe
economic problems, Leon Panetta, who is heading up Obama’s transition
team and was Bill Clinton’s former chief of staff, told the New York
Times: "You better damn well do the tough stuff up front, because if you
think you can delay the tough decisions and tiptoe past the graveyard,
you’re in for a lot of trouble... Make the decisions that involve pain
and sacrifice up front". (5 November)
Obama’s agenda
GIVEN THE MASSIVE budget deficits, running at 6% of
GDP federally and forcing emergency measures in state governments,
Obama’s ability to enact serious reforms to relieve working-class people
will be limited. Nonetheless, Obama has been discussing with
congressional leaders about a possible $100 billion for public works,
extending unemployment benefits, winter heating assistance, food stamps
and aid to cities and states that could be passed during a lame-duck
session of Congress.
Even from the standpoint of big business, such
limited proposals are necessary to prevent a further economic collapse
and discrediting of capitalism. However, such measures will at best
slow, but not reverse, the catastrophic declines in living standards
that are already underway in working-class communities.
Furthermore, as he did with the $700 billion bailout
in September, Obama has indicated support for further taxpayer handouts
to corporate America. The big three automakers, who have seen
catastrophic declines in their sales, are faced with the prospect of
bankruptcy unless the federal government comes to their aid. Such aid,
however, will not reverse the layoffs and wage and benefit cuts facing
autoworkers. While Obama has supported bailouts for big business, there
has been no talk from his camp of using the governments’ ownership of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and shares in the banks, to halt
foreclosures for working- and middle-class homeowners.
It remains to be seen how rapidly or fully Obama
will move to implement his other campaign promises, from health-care tax
credits to closing Guantánamo Bay. In Iraq, Obama aims to reduce the US
presence from 140,000 to 60-80,000 troops over 16 months, although it
remains to be seen whether he will stick to this timetable. Even if he
is able to implement this, which will not at all be easy given the
danger of a US withdrawal triggering increased instability, the war will
not be over, as tens of thousands of troops will be left behind to
defend the interests of US imperialism.
Further, Obama wants to send troops from Iraq to
escalate the brutal war in Afghanistan, in which US and NATO airstrikes
have killed hundreds of civilians over the past few months. Already, US
causalities in Afghanistan have overtaken those in Iraq, and the
situation is rapidly deteriorating.
However, as the economic crisis deepens and demands
for change grow, Obama may be compelled to introduce bolder, more
far-reaching reforms than the limited measures already being discussed.
Such steps would be carried out to save capitalism, not from the point
of view of supporting workers and the oppressed. Already we have seen
how the economic disaster forced the right-wing neo-liberal Bush
administration to massively intervene in the economy in order to protect
the system.
However, even limited reforms by an Obama White
House will contrast sharply with Bush’s reign, and will likely give
Obama a certain honeymoon period. Democrats’ call for patience in the
face of the economic crisis, which they have blamed completely on Bush,
will get an echo for a period.
Nevertheless, millions of young people, people of
colour and ordinary workers have had their confidence raised. The wave
of political awakening which Obama rode to power was not the creation of
his campaign, and the radicalisation of the working class will not stop
with the end of this campaign – just the opposite, in fact!
As movements develop in the next few years, they
will inevitably come into sharp conflict with an Obama administration.
While it is not possible to foresee the exact timescale, at a certain
point events will expose Obama and congressional leaders as
representatives of big business. As a result, the way will be prepared
for a new political and class awakening in US society.
More than ever, the question of building a real
political voice for workers and young people will emerge onto the
political agenda. The idea of a new anti-corporate, anti-war political
party, a party of working people, will gain traction in the minds of
millions, as ordinary people struggle to find a way out of the economic
and social crisis engulfing US society.
Philip Locker
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