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Electoral rollercoaster in Canada
CANADA’S RECENT federal election heralded a
political sea-change. On 2 May, the country learned that the fourth
federal (national) election in just seven years had returned the
Conservative Party to power. The Tories, led by Stephen Harper, ran a
minority administration from 2006, but now hold 166 out of 308 seats in
the House of Commons.
Now Harper will most likely press ahead with
right-wing, pro-market policies, such as an assault on Medicare,
privatisation of social services, a harsh ‘law and order’ crime bill,
cuts in corporation tax and the procurement of F-35 fighter jets. The
re-election of the Tories is also a blow to environmental protection.
Under pressure from powerful big oil interests in Alberta, western
Canada, Harper is likely to block measures to curb carbon emissions. He
may also attempt to roll back some social measures, such as abortion
rights.
Yet the federal election results were anything but
an endorsement of neo-liberal policies. With just 39.6% of the vote, the
Tories benefited from the first-past-the-post system to win a clear
majority. The Liberals, for decades the ‘natural governing party’ of the
ruling class, suffered a big collapse in support, falling from 77 to 34
seats and only 19% of the vote. The party’s very existence is now up for
debate. Similarly, the pro-independence Bloc Québécois (BQ), which won a
majority of seats in Quebec in federal elections over the last two
decades, was nearly wiped out, plummeting from 49 to four seats.
In stark contrast, the New Democratic Party (NDP)
made big gains, leaping from 37 to 103 seats, to become the official
opposition for the first time. The lion’s share of the NDP gains was in
Quebec where the party won 42.9% of the vote, garnering 59 of the
province’s 75 seats. Previously, the NDP had held just one seat in
Quebec. Across the rest of Canada, the NDP vote increased from 17.5% to
26.8%, although it only got an extra five seats. This means that, of the
total of 103 NDP seats, 60% came from Quebec.
The outcome reflected voter volatility and
frustration, and a search by millions for an alternative. Yet the entire
‘political class’, including the NDP leaders, did not expect the
electoral earthquake; one victorious NDP candidate did not visit her
Quebec constituency during the election campaign. The election was
triggered when the opposition NDP, Liberals and BQ joined forces to
bring down Harper’s minority government on 25 March, after a row over
the federal budget. But there was little to distinguish the main parties
during the election campaign.
The NDP is regarded by many as a ‘leftist’
alternative to the Liberals. But on key issues – support for NATO
attacks on Libya, environmental issues, the economy and the national
question in Quebec – there is little difference between them. On some
issues, such as ‘law and order’, the NDP ran to the right of the
Liberals, promising to increase police numbers.
The NDP was formed 50 years ago, as a social
democratic party, bringing together left organisations and union
affiliates. But over decades the party ceased to espouse reforms on
behalf of working people. In power in several Canadian provinces, the
NDP has followed pro-market policies, attacking social gains of the
working class, passing ‘back-to-work’ legislation and even violating
collective bargaining agreements with public-sector workers to carry out
budget cuts.
Following the federal elections, newspaper
columnist, Thomas Walkom, commented: "We know that the NDP isn’t a
socialist party. It hasn’t been for decades. But is it a social
democratic party? Certainly, there were few hints of either labour or
the left in the party’s 2011 election platform… In fact, the central
economic theory behind that platform was a very conservative one: the
best way to create jobs is through tax cuts for business". (Toronto
Star, 12 May) The NDP argues that favouring small and medium businesses
is the way to create more jobs.
The NDP’s huge gains were largely because it was the
undeserving beneficiary of a popular wave of protest against the Tories
and Liberals. Despite the NDP’s actual policies, the campaign rhetoric
of its leader, Jack Layton, calling for ‘change’, led some to
hope-against-hope that the NDP really could be a party for change.
Most voters in Quebec wanted to prevent another Tory
victory at the federal level and regarded the NDP as the best vehicle to
achieve this aim. Many questioned how effective the BQ, a bourgeois
nationalist, pro-market party, is in Ottawa at supposedly fighting for
the ‘interests’ of Quebec. As the polls showed growing support for the
NDP, Layton made overtures to Quebec voters with vague promises about
looking anew at the constitution.
Such a dramatic reshaping of the political landscape
does not come from nowhere. It signifies overwhelming opposition to the
social cuts policies of the Tories and all the main parties. The
election results show profound discontent and growing anger at the base
of society towards the status quo. Given Harper’s plans to savagely
attack the social gains of working people, the election anticipates big
class struggles that will convulse Canada.
Despite claims that Harper’s government will be
‘moderate’, the record and hard pro-market ideology of the Conservatives
– a merger of the right-wing Reform/Canadian Alliance and the
Progressive Conservatives – indicate the opposite. The economy was not
as badly hit as its giant US neighbour, following the 2008 world
economic crisis. But Harper aims to make working people and the
environment pay for the Canadian capitalists’ aggressive pursuit of
profits and markets, and for Canada’s hugely expensive imperialist
ambitions.
Mass opposition will develop against Tory policies
in workplaces and communities, on the streets and campuses. But the NDP
cannot be relied on to lead a successful anti-cuts struggle. During the
Ontario days of action in the 1990s, against the right-wing provincial
government of Mike Harris, NDP leaders and their allies in the union
leadership did everything to curtail mass movements. The NDP and union
leaders may try to divert or demobilise mass movements again by arguing
that the only thing people can do is wait and vote NDP in the next
election and that militancy threatens the ability of the NDP to win that
election.
This would be a disastrous policy of inaction and
passivity in the face of a Tory onslaught. Workers and activists need to
prepare to resist the government’s agenda. Millions who voted NDP will
have no choice but to engage in militant struggle against right-wing
Tory polices that are a direct attack on their living conditions and the
environment. This can lead to big debates among the NDP rank and file
and opposition to the right-wing path of the leadership.
Already, a group of former NDP members, along with
others on the left in Ontario province, including members of Socialist
Alternative (CWI Canada), have formed the Socialist Party Ontario. This
is a small but potentially important step towards the development of a
genuinely independent mass party of the working class.
Despite its commanding federal presence in Quebec,
the NDP will face big challenges in the province. The consequences of
Tory cuts plans can reignite militant working-class traditions and
aggravate the national question. Although BQ was reduced to a rump,
Quebec ‘sovereignty’ is by no means a dead issue. Support for
independence has ebbed and flowed over the last three decades but a
consistent 40% or so want sovereignty for the majority French-speaking
province.
Furthermore, BQ’s sister provincial party, the Parti
Québécois (PQ), is expected to be returned to power in the next
provincial elections. The NDP leadership’s half-hearted opposition to
Tory polices and its pro-federalist position on Quebec can open up deep
divisions within the party in Quebec.
Québec Solidaire (QS), a small, broad left,
pro-independence party, formed in 2006, already occupies some of the
political space to the left of PQ. But to really develop, QS needs to
adopt bold socialist policies, opposing the Tory cuts and campaigning
for jobs, homes, a living wage and fully-funded social services.
Supporters of Alternative Socialiste (CWI Quebec) participate in QS and
campaign for such a socialist programme, as well as calling for workers’
unity and the right of genuine self-determination for the people of
Quebec. An independent socialist Quebec, with full rights guaranteed for
all minorities, and a socialist Canada – as part of a socialist
federation of the Americas, on a voluntary and equal basis – would see
living conditions transformed.
The federal election tsunami sets the scene for
major class confrontations throughout Canada. The working class and
youth will strongly resist Tory attacks and defend their hard won social
gains. In the process, the working class will start to develop an
independent political programme for socialist change.
Andrew Messing, Socialist Alternative (CWI Canada)
and Niall Mulholland, CWI
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