French elections: austerity rejected
THE FRENCH and Greek elections are the most
influential electoral rejections of austerity so far, marking a new
stage in Europe’s crisis. Alongside the deepening economic and social
crisis they have forced leader after leader to speak of economic growth,
at least verbally. François Hollande’s victory made Nicolas Sarkozy the
eighth European leader or government to be defeated in the last year.
Following the massive struggle over pensions in 2010
many French workers, youth and other layers turned their attention to
preventing Sarkozy’s re-election. But it was not only a personal vote
against the arrogant, rude, ‘bling-bling’ Sarkozy. It was also a
rejection of the attacks he had presided over and a reaction to the
mounting impact of the economic crisis on working people.
Hollande’s victory had most support from young
people. Among 18-24 year-olds he polled 60% to 40%, a percentage which
was exactly reversed with the over 65s. Although many voted Hollande
mainly to oust Sarkozy, his victory has created big hopes and
expectations – not just in France but internationally – that the tide is
beginning to turn against the assault on living standards. Hollande had
to reflect the growing pressure from below, making some limited promises
and presenting himself as an anti-austerity, pro-growth candidate. He
made a number of pledges, including increasing the minimum wage,
creating 150,000 youth ‘jobs of the future’, hiring 60,000 new teachers
and 5,000 additional police.
Hollande continued the pro-growth theme on election
night. "Austerity can no longer be the only option", he said in a
victory speech in his Tulle constituency. Later Hollande told the crowd
at the Bastille, Paris: "You are much more than a people who want
change. You are already a movement that is rising across all of Europe
and maybe the world". But can Hollande deliver what millions are
demanding?
Hollande’s narrow victory was the first Parti
Socialiste (PS) presidential election success for 24 years and only the
third (after 1981 and 1988) in the history of the fifth republic,
established by General de Gaulle in 1958. But this is not a victory for
socialism in the sense of breaking with capitalism. Although Hollande
said his "true adversary was the world of finance", he does not stand
for the nationalisation of the banks, finance companies and major
concerns. His proposals were limited to measures to curb some of their
activities and impose a ‘real’ tax on financial transactions.
PS leaders can sound radical, especially when they
are challenged from the left. On election night, Ségolène Royal, PS
candidate in 2007, declared to the Paris crowds: "With us, the banks
will obey instead of commanding. There will be resistance, you will see.
The power of money is still there". However, as Hollande’s new
government shows, the PS is a party that seeks to work within
capitalism. The Financial Times commented approvingly that the "first
words" of Hollande’s finance minister, Pierre Moscovici, were that
"public debt is an enemy of the country".
Hollande plans to eliminate the budget deficit by
2017, just one year later than Sarkozy had planned to. Hollande also
proposes to introduce a constitutional requirement for the government to
have a balanced budget. In this capitalist crisis this means cutting
living standards and jobs. A Financial Times editorial commented that
the "good news is that Mr Hollande is keeping many changes of the past
five years, even those his party initially opposed".
Hollande seeks to save €100 billion a year through
tax increases and spending cuts, although he has not said what will be
cut. While promising new jobs, Hollande has also said that the overall
number of public-sector workers will not rise. However, Hollande’s
economic plans (like Sarkozy’s) are based upon a 1.7% growth next year.
This is looking increasingly unrealistic; low growth or no growth will
increase the markets’ pressure on Hollande.
Nevertheless, many capitalists fear that Hollande
will be under enormous pressure from below to at least limit the impact
of the crisis. His victory will have strengthened the confidence of
French workers, youth and other oppressed layers by showing that the
right can be defeated. Initial polls forecast increased support for the
PS and parties to its left in June’s parliamentary elections.
The right’s defeats can lead to a reawakening of the
French tradition of mass movements starting from below that could force
Hollande to go further than he initially planned. After the bitter
experiences of the PS in office during the 1981-95 presidency of
François Mitterrand, and Lionel Jospin’s PS/Parti Communiste coalition
government (1997-2002), pressures will build among workers that they
need to act themselves rather than simply wait for Hollande.
Struggles could break out over offensive demands
like higher wages, or against attacks like redundancies. At the end of
April, Hollande warned in Le Parisien that his victory would see a wave
of redundancies: "Decisions have been taken that are being postponed. It
will not be our arrival that will have triggered these redundancy
plans". In a radio interview, he said: "I won’t allow this cortège of
redundancy plans to take place". Workers facing the sack will try to
hold him to his word.
Hollande and his government will face enormous
pressure from markets to resist any opposition to cuts and to demands
for increased living standards. At same time, there are growing
divisions among governments and capitalists over what to do. Angela
Merkel and the German government, while generally standing tough, are
giving small hints of doing more for ‘growth’, while rejecting any
changes to the fiscal treaty.
The day after Hollande’s victory, Merkel, spoke
about "two sides of the same coin – progress is only achievable via
solid finances plus growth". Merkel and co hope that Hollande will
accept the addition of ‘growth’ measures alongside the fiscal treaty.
Events could yet force the hand of the EU leaders, compelling them to
accept some larger measures that attempt to alleviate the crisis.
Because Hollande seeks to operate within capitalism,
even during the election campaign hints were being given of the limits
of a PS government. At the same time as Hollande was promising positive
reforms, Michel Sapin, his campaign policy chief and now employment
minister, said family allowances could be cut. Privately, he told German
diplomats: "We can’t do Keynesianism twice in ten years". Philippe
Aghion, an adviser to Hollande, wrote in the Financial Times: "Hollande
is the first French Socialist president to advocate a supply-side
approach to growth".
The ongoing economic crisis and demands from below
will put Hollande to the test. While not challenging capitalism,
Hollande can be pushed in conflicting directions: being forced to give
concessions and to carry through attacks.
After the experiences of the Mitterrand presidency
and Jospin government, many workers in France do not trust the PS. It is
seen by this radical layer as a party that administers capitalism.
Jospin actually carried through more privatisation than governments of
the traditional right. This is the reason for the increasingly
enthusiastic support in the first round of this election for Jean-Luc
Mélenchon, the Front de Gauche (FdG) candidate. His call for a "civic
insurrection" to "take power" was seen as a rallying cry against the
ruling class.
It is possible that Mélenchon will defeat Marine Le
Pen, leader of the far-right Front National (FN), for a seat in June’s
elections to the National Assembly. This anti-capitalist mood was also
shown by the over 600,000 who voted in the first round for the Nouveau
Parti Anticapitaliste (NPA) and Lutte Ouvrière (LO), to the left of the
PS and FdG. Similarly, there were large votes in 2002 and 2007 for the
LCR (the main component of the NPA) and LO, to the left of Jospin’s
coalition.
Now, in this stormy period, Hollande will be put to
the test. Because his government will base itself on capitalism, it is
inevitable that, over a period of time, a process broadly similar to
that under Jospin will unfold. But, as this is a time of economic and
social crisis, it will be a far stormier period. This will see a
radicalisation to the left, creating the chance of building a new force
committed to breaking with capitalism. It will also see opportunities
for the FN to mix populism, racism and nationalism to build upon the
support it has already amassed. A new, tumultuous stage has opened both
in France and Europe.
Robert Bechert
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