Britain’s
shifting political contours
The referendum vote to
leave the EU has thrown Britain’s capitalist establishment into
disarray. The new Tory government, with no electoral mandate of its own,
is split from top to bottom. Right-wing Labour continues to plot Jeremy
Corbyn’s downfall. Rumours of political realignments are rife. HANNAH
SELL examines this volatile scene.
On a global scale the
shockwaves created by Brexit have been dwarfed by Donald Trump’s victory
in the US. For the capitalist classes of Europe, and particularly
Britain, however, Brexit remains a nightmare from which they cannot
escape. The vote on 23 June was, at base, an elemental working-class
revolt against the long years of wage restraint, job losses,
public-sector cuts and growing inequality. It was a serious shock to
capitalist politics, jolting it out of its normal channels. The
repercussions have only just started to play out.
Over the summer, in the
immediate aftermath of the referendum, it was the divisions in the
Labour Party which took centre stage. Meanwhile, left-wing commentators
bemoaned the Tories’ apparent escape from the Brexit debacle by
anointing Theresa May as the new prime minister. That was an extremely
superficial view of reality.
As we predicted, the deep
fissures in the Tory party are once again being exposed. The Deloitte
Report, much denied by Tory ministers, only revealed the increasingly
obvious fact that the cabinet is split on Brexit and could take another
six months to even agree its negotiating strategy, because "despite
extended debate among permanent secretaries no common strategy has
emerged". Six months could be optimistic! The Tories could split before
they find a common strategy.
Every time one of the three
‘Brexit ministers’ – Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox – open
their mouths, Theresa May is forced to slap them down. Most recently she
disassociated herself from Johnson telling a Czech newspaper that
Britain would "probably leave the customs union". Prior to that she had,
among other things, to denounce Davis for telling MPs that Britain was
"unlikely to stay in the single market", and Fox for saying that a trade
deal would have to be secured before Britain left the EU. Meanwhile, she
has continued an increasingly farcical policy of saying nothing about
the government’s plans for Brexit.
The Tory party is in the
process of being torn apart by the huge conflicting pressures on it.
While much of the right-wing press campaigned for Brexit, a majority of
Britain’s capitalist class and its institutions have no wish to leave
the EU. They moved might and main to try and win the referendum for
remain. It suits the interests of British capitalism to stay in the EU
because it is, in essence, an agreement between the different capitalist
classes of Europe in order to create the largest possible market within
which they can profit. Through the passing of a series of neoliberal,
anti-working-class treaties, the EU has assisted the capitalist elites’
struggle to maximise their profits at the expense of the working class.
Having failed to win the
referendum the British ruling class is keen to minimise the
consequences. They aim at least to make sure it leads to a ‘soft Brexit’
and hope to reverse the decision altogether, perhaps via a second
referendum at a later stage. At the moment, however, their ability to
move in that direction is extremely curtailed by the danger of turning
last June’s electoral uprising into a movement on the streets if they
are seen to ignore the Brexit vote.
Ireland voted against the
EU’s Lisbon treaty in 2008, only to be sent back to the polls less than
two years later to vote ‘the right way’. However, Britain in 2016 – nine
years after the ‘great recession’ – is a more risky proposition. There
is an enormous accumulation of anger at endless austerity that has the
potential to explode. The wave of outrage that met the High Court’s
decision that parliament had to debate Article 50 gave a glimpse of the
furies that could descend on a government perceived as having reneged on
the exit vote. (Triggering Article 50 begins the process for a member
state to leave the EU.)
Tory cuts continue
While fear of the possible
economic consequences of leaving the EU may alter the opinion of some
who voted leave, so far the polls have shifted very little on the issue.
On the other side, some workers will hope that May’s claims to stand up
for the working class might have some basis in fact. They will quickly
find out otherwise. As the Sunday Times put it, the Tories’ real policy
will be that "the ‘just managing’ will just have to manage".
Fearing the mass opposition
that it could face, the government has made a number of retreats from
former chancellor George Osborne’s policies, abandoning austerity in
words, and scrapping some particularly unworkable measures such as ‘pay
to stay’. Shame on those Labour councils, like Greenwich, that had
already begun to implement this policy designed to wreck what remains of
social housing! In a desperate attempt to kick-start Britain’s ailing
economy the government has clearly been considering some major
investment in infrastructure. However, the increase in the deficit,
which is likely to be £10 billion to £15 billion higher for the current
financial year than the £55 billion Osborne predicted, means that
chancellor Philip Hammond’s proposals are extremely limited.
The government is ploughing
on with the benefit cap and other measures which are driving
working-class families into the dirt, and no plans to seriously tackle
this were made in Hammond's autumn statement. It is planning £22
billion-worth of savage cuts to the NHS, using the mechanism of the
so-called ‘sustainability and transformation plans’ (STPs). The result,
if it is allowed to get away with it, will be the wholesale closure of
local hospitals. However, the potential exists for a mass uprising
against these cuts, which could take off from the national demonstration
in defence of the NHS called for 4 March 2017.
A new stage of capitalist
economic crisis, combined with the brutal anti-working-class character
of May’s government being clearly revealed, will lead to a further
deepening of the already profound anger of the working class and growing
sections of the middle class. This will make it very difficult for
British capitalism to find a way back from Brexit. In addition, the Tory
party cannot be relied on to act in the interests of the capitalist
class. On the contrary, it was David Cameron’s inept attempts to handle
the dysfunctionality of the Tory party that led to the referendum being
called in the first place.
The majority of the Tory
ranks are died-in-the-wool Brexiters, ‘little Englanders’ with
pipedreams of somehow returning to the long-gone days of British
capitalism’s domination of the globe. It is estimated that two thirds of
Tory party members voted leave. May was herself a remain supporter who
stayed very quiet during the referendum campaign in order to increase
her chances of taking the crown once Cameron was forced out. In a
private pre-referendum speech to Goldman-Sachs, she put her real
position: that "being part of a 500-million trading bloc" had
significant economic benefits for British capitalism. To say this now,
however, is politically impossible for her and for the whole swathe of
leading Tory figures – particularly people like Johnson – who cynically
argued for Brexit in the hope of furthering their own careers.
Unholy anti-Brexit alliance
Once upon a time, Britain’s
elite could have turned to a reliable second party of capitalism – New
Labour – but the anti-austerity revolt that has twice thrust Jeremy
Corbyn into the Labour Party leadership has put paid to that. Instead,
the capitalist class is fumbling around trying to find the means to get
a handle on the situation. In parliament, MPs from all parties are
attempting to work together to ‘step back’ Brexit – including the pro-EU
wing of the Tory party, the Liberal Democrats, and right-wing Labour.
Hilary Benn, Labour chair of the Brexit parliamentary committee, is in a
pivotal position.
Lurking in the background is
Tony Blair. May’s aides have described him as being part of an "unholy
alliance" of former ministers who are determined to block Brexit. The
alliance also includes Osborne. According to the Sunday Times, "Tony and
George have been meeting and have had lots of conversations about the
post-Brexit climate".
Given the paucity of reliable
forces for capitalism in parliament, the judiciary has also been called
on to try and prevent a hard Brexit. For this it has been attacked by
the right-wing press, hypocritically posing as defenders of democracy
and ‘the people’. The ‘liberal’ press, meanwhile, shamefully backed up
by some on the left, have rushed to defend the supposed ‘independence’
of the judiciary. Guardian journalist Paul Mason wrote an article
calling for ‘bond traders and Trots’ to unite in defence of the "the
judiciary guaranteeing the rule of law". But the judiciary is not a
neutral defender of the rule of law. It is drawn overwhelmingly from the
elite of society: 74% of High Court judges were privately educated. And
the judiciary acts ultimately to uphold the interests of the capitalist
class, as the many groups of workers who have had their strikes declared
illegal on spurious grounds know all too well.
If the Court of Appeal
upholds the High Court decision to insist parliament discusses Article
50 before it is triggered, it will not be a sign of its independence but
of its determination to aid the capitalist class’s campaign to remain in
the EU. It is not clear by what means May will try to muddle through in
this situation. She is reported to be considering putting a very short,
paragraph-long, bill to parliament triggering Article 50. She hopes that
the difficulties of amending a short bill, and the political dangers for
MPs who are seen to scupper Brexit, will allow her to force it through.
May’s election dilemma
It is not at all certain that
this ruse would work. The possibility of prolonged debates in parliament
forcing her to reveal her negotiating strategy, or lack of one, could
force her to try and call a general election. Given the Fixed-Term
Parliament Act this would require the cooperation of Labour. For many
right-wing Labour MPs, a general election in which they think May would
increase her majority would be a price worth paying for what they hope
would be a chance to finally ditch Corbyn.
Nonetheless, there are still
strong reasons for May to avoid a general election. Particularly if
Jeremy Corbyn was to fight it on a clear anti-austerity platform – and
for a Brexit in the interests of the working class – the Tories could be
defeated, whatever the opinion polls say now. In addition, it would be a
very difficult campaign to fight given May’s desperation to say nothing
on Brexit. In all likelihood, in order to try and make sure she came out
of it with a strengthened mandate, she would have to campaign for a hard
exit from the EU. That could, in turn, split the Tory party, and would
be difficult for the capitalist class to step back from at a later
stage.
Despite this, the
intractability of the government’s situation and May’s desperation to
increase her tiny majority and gain a mandate, could force her down that
road. The prospect is posed of the most serious split in the Tory party
since at least the 19th-century schism over the Corn Laws. Like today,
that was a conflict between the globalising and protectionist wings of
the capitalist class, and kept the Tories out of power for almost three
decades.
Strains in the EU
The problems that British
capitalism faces with Brexit are also enormously exacerbated by the
situation in the rest of the EU, where capitalist politicians are facing
the same pressures as in Britain. Capitalism remains based on nation
states. Even in the period of globalisation that preceded the 2008
economic crisis – in spite of all the pressures on the capitalist
classes of Europe to club together in order to compete more effectively
with the US, and more recently China – they were not able to overcome
the barriers of the nation state.
While the productive forces
had massively outgrown national and, to some degree, even continental
boundaries, capitalism remained based on nations which are not only
economic units but also political and social entities. Even in a time of
boom, the European capitalists could be described as being forcibly
chained together – at the same time trading blows when their national
interests clashed. Now world capitalism has entered crisis the blows
being traded have become much more intense, as the neo-colonial
treatment of Greece graphically demonstrates.
The factors pushing the
European capitalists together remain, which means they will continue to
fight to save the EU. At a certain point, however, the centrifugal
forces will become so great that, despite their efforts, the eurozone
especially and even the EU are likely to fracture. The Brexit vote is
the biggest symptom so far, but there will be others. In June polling by
the Pew Research Centre found that opposition to the EU was on the
increase continent-wide, unsurprisingly highest in Greece at 71%, but
also 60% in France and almost 50% in Germany, the Netherlands and Spain.
It is inevitable that opposition to the EU has been on the rise, when
for decades it has been driving forward neoliberal policies.
New ‘shock factors’,
including the possible election of far-right and right-wing populist
parties to national governments, a defeat for prime minister Matteo
Renzi in Italy’s upcoming constitutional referendum and, above all, a
new stage of the economic crisis and its political consequences, can
very rapidly lead to a further fracturing of the EU. By the time the
Brexit negotiations are complete, the EU may well not exist in its
current form. It is in a desperate attempt to minimise the damage to the
EU that its leaders are taking a tough stance on negotiations with
Britain.
German finance minister,
Wolfgang Schäuble, is one of those talking tough: "There is no à la
carte menu. There is only the whole menu or none". This means there can
be no ‘special deals’, that free access to EU markets – including
‘passporting’ for financial services companies, key for the City of
London – is only available on the basis of continuing to accept the
‘four freedoms’ within the EU, including free movement of labour. Of
course, it is not clear whether, in the course of negotiations, some
small concessions could be made on this issue, but there is a strong
mood among the capitalists of the major EU states that Britain must be
punished for Brexit, in order to prevent others going down the same
road.
![Socialism Today 204 - Dec/Jan 2016/17](ST204-cover-4-web.jpg)
Right-wing populist threat
It is urgent that the
workers’ movement puts its stamp on the situation. The Tories, the
traditional party of capitalism in Britain, are in an existential
crisis, reflecting the crisis of British capitalism. There is a golden
opportunity for the Labour leadership to assert the voice of the
working-class majority in society. If this opportunity is not taken, in
reaction against the poverty and misery they have experienced under
neoliberal, globalised capitalism, a section of workers can be attracted
to right-wing, racist and nationalist politicians falsely posing as the
friends of the ‘little men and women’, as the billionaire Trump did. But
there is nothing automatic in this. If mass parties are built which put
a clear, class position it is possible to win many of those who could
otherwise be swayed by the right.
One thing is certain: a
strategy of uniting with the pro-globalisation, liberal wing of the
capitalist class in order to oppose right-wing nationalism – "the
bondholders and the Trots protesting together", as Paul Mason put it –
is doomed to failure. That would mean criminally leaving the right-wing
nationalists as the only force claiming to stand up for the ‘little men
and women’. It is the experience of globalised capitalism and the
resulting economic crisis that has enraged millions of workers around
the world. Only by putting a clear socialist alternative to capitalism –
based on a united, anti-racist, working-class approach – will it be
possible to cut across the right.
Bernie Sanders could have
done that in the US. Potentially, Jeremy Corbyn could do it in Britain,
by fighting to transform Labour into a party of the working class and
impoverished middle class. The crisis of capitalism and its parties
creates a significant opportunity for the left. If, however, Corbyn was
to retreat under the pressure of the Blairites – the supporters of
globalised capitalism in his own party – it could leave a space into
which other forces will step. Socialists would fight to harness the
anti-austerity mood that thrust Jeremy Corbyn into the leadership of the
Labour Party into the creation of a mass workers’ party. But there would
be a real danger that the UK Independence Party and its ilk would take
advantage of the void to make further gains.
Fighting the cuts
The battle to consolidate
Jeremy Corbyn’s decisive leadership re-election victory is therefore
increasingly urgent. The pro-capitalist elements of the Labour Party
have repeatedly demonstrated how determined they are to isolate and
defeat Corbyn. Endless attempts to compromise with them would mean
squandering the opportunity of creating a democratic, socialist Labour
Party. Instead, it is necessary to mobilise the hundreds of thousands
who have flooded into Labour into a campaign to transform the party and
to remove the Blairites from their positions. This should include
campaigning to readmit all those socialists who have been expelled or
excluded from membership by the Blairite party machine, and opening up
the Labour Party to all anti-austerity forces, allowing them to
affiliate on a democratic, federal basis.
It is also crucial that a
campaign is launched for Labour councils to oppose cuts at local level –
instead of acting as loyal axemen and women. Already, local authority
services have been cut by 40% since 2010, with further savagery in the
budgets for next year. Walsall Labour council, for example, is planning
to close all but one of its 17 libraries. In Liverpool, residents are
being offered a Hobson’s choice between an eye-watering 10% council tax
increase and ‘manageable cuts’, or the halving of all council services!
It is wishful thinking to imagine it will be possible to convince
working-class people that Labour is now an anti-austerity party if its
leaders do nothing to oppose these cuts taking place.
However, if Jeremy Corbyn and
shadow chancellor John McDonnell were to make a clear call for Labour
councils to use their reserves and borrowing powers to not implement a
single cut to jobs or services, while demanding the return of the money
taken by central government, it would transform the situation. It would
create the possibility of building a mass movement against the cuts that
could lead to the fall of the government. If Corbyn and McDonnell fail
to oppose local council cuts, it will not prevent struggles against them
developing – as the heroic strikes by teaching assistants in Durham
testify – but it will severely undermine the hopes of workers that
Labour could be transformed.
Of course, such a call would
send the pro-capitalist elements in the Labour Party into a frenzy, and
could well be the trigger for them splitting away. Good! Any clear step
towards transforming Labour into an anti-austerity party would have the
same effect on them, but taking steps in the other direction – trying to
keep them on board – is the path to defeat.
A socialist Europe
This is clearly posed on the
question of the EU, which is a central issue for the capitalist class
and therefore the Labour right-wing. John McDonnell made a very moderate
criticism of the EU on 14 November, saying that Labour would not block
an Article 50 notification and that, "we cannot hide from the fact that
too much of the EU also had aspects of the old model, putting the
interests of big business over ordinary people". Therefore, he said:
"Labour accepts the referendum result as the voice of the majority and
we must embrace the enormous opportunities to reshape our country that
Brexit has opened for us". Immediately, however, this statement was met
with fury by the Labour right-wing, with Keir Starmer, the pro-EU shadow
Brexit secretary, telling the press he was "absolutely furious".
On the question of the EU,
Jeremy Corbyn has put a better position than the slavish support for the
‘single market’ coming from the Blairites. Nonetheless, his position of
calling for ‘access to the single market’ is mistaken if that means
acceptance of its neoliberal rules. Socialists have to oppose the EU’s
single market, which was inaugurated, after all, by a treaty signed by
Margaret Thatcher. Socialists are internationalists, standing for a
socialist confederation of Europe. It would not be possible to solve the
problems workers face within one country. Even public ownership under
democratic working-class control and management of large sections of one
country’s economy would only be a first step towards breaking the power
of hostile world capitalism.
Even so, it is most likely
that the first steps to building a socialist society will take place in
one country rather than simultaneously internationally. Once one country
had begun, socialism would spread like wildfire. In the meantime, the
first countries to break with capitalism would have to defend themselves
against the sabotage of global capitalism. This is entirely incompatible
with membership of the EU single market, a capitalist tool to maximise
profits and drive down working-class living standards across Europe.
Corbyn has rightly emphasised
the importance of protecting workers’ rights, and opposing EU measures
like the posted-workers’ directive, but he needs to go further. Having
initially blundered by backing remain, under pressure from the Labour
right, he has started from a disadvantage. Nonetheless, he could
overcome that by campaigning for a socialist Brexit. He could propose a
different kind of repeal bill to that proposed by May – one that
annulled all EU regulations which go against working-class interests.
Such a bill could call for repealing anti-trade union legislation,
including the Tories’ latest Trade Union Act, and enforcing collective
agreements. It would mean bringing about real working-class control via
democratic public ownership. A campaign for Brexit on this basis could
transform the political situation in Britain, cutting across racism, and
could bring Jeremy Corbyn to office as the leader of a Labour government
with genuine mass support.