European
perspectives
Brexit, Catalonia and the
rise of the AfD in Germany are an anticipation of even greater upheavals
to come. Analysing European perspectives for the next period, we are
carrying here extracts from a draft statement for the forthcoming
meeting of the International Executive of the Committee for a Workers’
International (CWI),
written in early November by TONY SAUNOIS.
The dramatic events that have
erupted in Catalonia and the Spanish state are a reflection of the
underlying social and political crisis gripping many European countries.
While the propaganda of the ruling class was that they had re-stabilised
and resolved the political and social crisis which unfolded in Greece,
first Brexit and now Catalonia reveal the underlying social and
political situation which exists in many EU countries. There has not
been a generalised upsurge in the class struggle in Europe, yet this
does not mean that the capitalist class faces a stable situation.
Political shocks, crises and upheavals continue to confront the
capitalist classes across Europe.
Some capitalist commentators
confidently look towards a return to substantial economic growth based
on rising levels of the gross domestic product within the eurozone in
the last quarters. However, the growth that has taken place – 2.1% this
year – has at best been sluggish and is extremely uneven. It has not
been accompanied by a rise in living standards but by continued
austerity. Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy remain gripped by mass
unemployment, in particular among the youth. Across the eurozone the
real level of unemployment – not just those officially registered –
including hidden unemployment, stands at 18%! Precarious jobs and
minimal wages, especially for young people, are increasingly the norm
throughout the EU. The slave labour scheme in Italy, which compels
students to work for no pay, is an indication of the scale of the
attacks which have taken place.
At the same time, the
underlying problem of the debt crisis has not been resolved. Apart from
a re-eruption of the Greek crisis, which is possible, there is the
possibility of a crisis unfolding in Italy should it be unable to
continue to service its public sector debt which amounts to 130% of GDP.
The Scandinavian and Nordic countries emerged relatively unscathed from
the 2007/08 crisis. However, the build-up of debt points towards them
being more dramatically affected in a future crisis which will have
important repercussions in the class struggle.
There are also major issues
developing in the European economy that will arise from the introduction
of robotics and other changes in production. In Germany there is a
discussion about the need to restructure the auto industry. The tensions
which will arise between the trade blocs was recently shown in the
conflict between the US and Canada over Bombardier which then spilled
over into Britain.
In addition to Brexit there
have been increased clashes within the EU. In the east there are
heightened tensions with Poland and Hungary. Poland is preparing to
lodge a claim for war reparations from Germany. Donald Tusk, the former
Polish prime minister, went so far as to declare that "the EU did not
need Poland and vice versa". This prompted some commentators to pose the
question of a ‘Polexit’ triggering a new crisis. There is also the
continued increase in tensions between Vladimir Putin’s regime in Russia
and the EU. Putin has suffered some electoral setbacks in recent local
elections. However, his regime still retains a significant social base
of support. The opposition is mainly based on the petite bourgeoisie and
has not involved a movement of the working class, at this stage.
Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to
push for greater integration of the eurozone economies with an agreed
budget has been partly checked as Angela Merkel is compelled to draw
back, looking over her shoulder at the far-right. Further attempts to
increase eurozone integration are possible. However, how far these go is
not at all certain and they go against the grain of the centrifugal
features currently at work. This will lead to further conflicts within
the EU and the eurozone. Sections of the German ruling class are
concerned that they would have to foot the bill for a more integrated
eurozone, something they are not prepared to do.
Revolution and counter-revolution in
Catalonia
The upheavals in Catalonia
have included elements of revolution and counter-revolution. They have
also revealed the importance of the national question for the working
class and revolutionary Marxists, and exposed the crisis of leadership
which exists. Such dramatic events are a test for all left and socialist
organisations, especially for revolutionary Marxists. The comrades of
Izquierda Revolucionaria and the CWI have correctly defended the
right of the Catalan people to decide their future. We demanded a
socialist republic of Catalonia, fighting together with the working
people of the rest of the Spanish state to oppose the ruling class and
Partido Popular (PP) in a common struggle to establish a voluntary,
democratic socialist confederation of all the peoples of the Spanish
state.
This is in marked distinction
to the treacherous role played by PSOE. The leadership of Izquierda
Unida (IU) and the Communist Party has been lamentable as they have
abandoned the defence of the right of self-determination for the Catalan
people. This has more recently been echoed by Pablo Iglesias who has
removed the leadership of Podemos in Catalonia and threatened to expel
the one member of the Podemos-linked parliamentary group in Catalonia
who voted in favour of declaring independence. The nine other Podemos
deputies all voted against. This has opened up a crisis inside Podemos.
At the same time, the left-nationalist CUP has failed to fight for an
independent political programme and role for the working class and has
wrongly propped up the bourgeois nationalist PDeCat government of Carles
Puigdemont.
In varying degrees, these
mistakes by the Catalan left and the left in the rest of the Spanish
state have been echoed by others internationally. At the same time, the
pro-independence SNP in Scotland, along with Irish prime minister Leo
Varadkar, have not been prepared to support Catalonia and to oppose the
stance of either the EU or PP government. The vicious reaction of the PP
government and its determination to crush the independence movement has
alarmed sections of the ruling classes throughout Europe who fear that
the conflict could spiral out of control and open a major crisis
throughout the EU. However, this did not prevent the EU, especially the
‘three Ms’ – Macron, Merkel and May – from backing Mariano Rajoy in
declaring the referendum illegal.
The brutal response of Rajoy
reflects in part the composition of the state machine and the PP in the
Spanish state. There is a powerful Francoist legacy and tradition which
was never purged following the transition in 1978. This includes
extremely repressive, bonapartist elements. This is combined by a fear
of the consequences of Catalan independence. Catalonia accounts for more
than 20% of Spanish GDP and exports. Moreover, if Catalonia were to
separate then the Basque country could follow.
Puigdemont and PDeCat have
demonstrated their fear of mobilising the masses in a real struggle
against the PP and for independence. They have demonstrated the
incapacity of these bourgeois nationalist politicians to lead an
effective fight. Puigdemont and five ministers fled to Belgium, ‘home’
to the EU which opposed their declaration of independence and backed the
PP government. Puigdemont then appealed to the same EU to intervene and
support the independence movement!
Above all, the Catalan
bourgeois politicians fear the prospect of an independent movement of
the working class which would be necessary to defeat the repression
being served up by the PP. The repression and arrest of some of the
Catalan government will, however, boost their standing for a period. The
Spanish state has lost all legitimacy in the eyes of millions of
Catalans especially the youth. This will have serious consequences for
the ruling class in the coming period.
![Socialism Today 214 - Dec/Jan 2017/18](214-cover.jpg)
The importance of the national question
The national question is of
vital importance for the workers’ movement. Marxists defend the right of
self-determination and the unity of all sections of the working class.
While not capitulating to bourgeois nationalism, it is important to
recognise that within national independence movements are often
contained an ‘immature Bolshevism’. Each national question is very
concrete and it is necessary to analyse each specific situation in
determining our exact demands and slogans.
As we have seen in Scotland,
support for independence can wax and wane. We need to take this into
account in the demands we advocate at each stage. A mistake on the
national question can have devastating consequences, as has been seen
historically. Jeremy Corbyn’s wrong approach on this issue in Scotland
was a major factor preventing Labour making important gains there, and
which ultimately resulted in Theresa May being able to form a government
at the last election in Britain. This was despite the fading illusions
in the SNP as it has carried through cuts in Scotland bringing it into
collision with sections of the working class.
The repressive response of
the PP government undoubtedly increased support for independence in
Catalonia although it is not certain a majority would support it at this
stage. However, in both Scotland and Catalonia it was correct for us to
side with the most combative youth and layers of workers who support
independence, even when this was a minority – as in Scotland in the 2014
referendum. They represented the most combative layer and broadly
indicate the line of march, with ebbs and flows along the way.
In Catalonia it is important
to win the mass of the working class to support independence. This can
only be done by explaining a clear opposition to austerity and the need
for a socialist republic of Catalonia. It is necessary to explain that
an independent socialist Catalonia would enshrine the democratic and
cultural rights of all. This is also important to answer the propaganda
of the right wing in the rest of the Spanish state which is attempting
to split the people in Catalonia – and to assuage the fears of those
opposed to independence in Catalonia – especially those who migrated
there from the rest of the Spanish state.
The events in Catalonia and
the Spanish state are likely to evolve in the short term with many
contradictions and complications arising mainly due to the lamentable
role of the left – IU and Podemos, and the failure of the CUP to adopt a
position independent from Puigdemont. The right wing around the PP and
Ciudadanos has launched a ferocious Spanish nationalist campaign which
the bigger left organisations in the Spanish state and Catalonia are not
countering. It remains uncertain how these events will develop but they
signify a turning point in the Spanish state with repercussions for the
whole of the EU.
Historic crisis in Britain
This is unfolding alongside
the EU’s other major crisis triggered by Brexit. May and her government
have managed to stumble on from crisis to crisis since her election
‘victory’ – where the winners lost and the losers won! The crisis
gripping the Conservative Party is historic. It has been split into
bitter factions over Brexit. A split similar to that over the Corn Laws
(free trade) in the 19th century is a strong possibility. This was one
of the oldest and most successful parties of the ruling classes anywhere
in Europe or possibly globally. At one stage it had a large social base
– up to three million members – including among sections of the skilled
working class. This has now been reduced to a rump, with a claimed
membership of approximately 100,000 – with an average age of 71! May (or
Maybot, as she is known) has little or no authority and remains prime
minister on sufferance.
The two factors allowing her
to stagger on are fear of an electoral slaughter of the Tories and the
victory of Corbyn, and the absence of a serious alternative Tory party
candidate to replace her. This is a reflection of the long-term decline
of British imperialism and sums up its parlous state.
Corbyn’s ‘victory’ at the
last election has temporarily served to demoralise the right-wing
Blairistas in the Parliamentary Labour Party. However, they still have
control over the party machine and the overwhelming majority on city
councils. In the local councils the Blaristas continue to carry out cuts
and austerity measures which Corbyn refuses to publicly attack in order
to maintain ‘party unity’. The Blairistas nationally are waiting as a
fifth column to sabotage and undermine a Corbyn-led government should he
win the next election. The party remains two parties in one and its
character is unresolved, as we have explained previously.
New left parties
The majority of the forces
involved in Momentum and the Labour Party have many of the features and
characteristics of the new left parties which have emerged in other
European countries. While Podemos has won the support of young people
and important layers of workers, especially younger sections of the
working class, it has also included big layers of the radicalised
petit-bourgeois youth. The Bloco de Esquerda (Left Bloc) in Portugal
lacks a consolidated base among the industrial working class. Its
membership is largely among young ‘precariat’ workers and
petit-bourgeois youth. Momentum in the Labour Party in Britain is
largely composed of petit-bourgeois layers.
This does not detract from
the importance of these developments. In France, for example, the
existence of France Insoumise around Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an important
factor in the explosive situation unfolding there. However, they are not
the classic mass workers’ parties that have existed historically. They
are not yet comparable even to the PRC in Italy at its peak which had a
much stronger base among the metal workers and other layers of the
working class for a while.
The mixed class composition
of these parties is reflected in the programme and ideas they defend
which are not yet of a classic reformist or left reformist character,
with little or no reference to socialism. Even Corbyn, with the most
‘left’ posture at this stage, does not generally raise the question of
socialism. One of the tasks of the CWI is to explain the need to oppose
capitalism as a system and raise the idea of socialism as an
alternative. From a historical perspective, Corbyn’s programme is to the
right of left reformists like Tony Benn in the 1970s/80s. It is a
measure of how far things have swung to the right and how political
consciousness was thrown back that this classic moderate social
democratic programme seems so radical to the new generation.
In reality, the ruling
classes do not fear the programme of these new left parties. What they
fear is the massive pressure they would come under from the masses to
adopt more radical measures. This is not a static process and more
radical left-reformist or even centrist programmes and leaders will
develop at a certain stage. Leaps forward in this process can take place
under the impact of a renewed capitalist crisis combined with the
experience of the masses in struggle.
The crisis of capitalism
means that they are reformists without reforms. This does not mean that
the ruling class will make no concessions when confronted with a
powerful revolutionary movement of the working class that threatens
their existence. However, the era of lasting reforms under capitalism
has long passed. This is reflected in the timid and limited nature of
the programme defended by these modern day ‘reformists’ at this stage.
One of the consequences of
the economic crisis of 2007/08 was a devastating assault on the middle
class in many countries. This has very dangerous implications for the
ruling class in undermining its social base. A significant section of
these former petit-bourgeois layers have been radicalised to the left
which is a positive development. Sections, like the junior doctors in
Britain, have entered into important struggles adopting the methods of
more traditional sectors of the working class. However, the inexperience
and semi-petit-bourgeois character of this layer is also reflected in
the makeup of big sections of these ‘new left’ parties and
organisations.
New lefts’ programme
The attacks on the middle
class have also been accompanied by other important developments. There
has been a strengthening of authoritarian methods by the capitalist
state apparatus. This has been reflected by the degree of repression
used in Catalonia, Germany, Britain and other countries against
demonstrations and protests. At the same time, in some countries like
Britain, the part-privatisation of the police and cut-backs have led to
widespread discontent, even a certain left political radicalisation
among sections. This was reflected in opposition to the Tories from a
section of the police in the British election campaign.
The threat of a de facto
strike of the police in Ireland was further evidence of this. In
Ireland, our comrades have taken up the cause of the appalling pay
levels for rank-and-file soldiers. This has resulted in us winning
widespread support, including receiving letters from troops. These
developments within the state machine in the medium term are extremely
dangerous for the ruling classes of Europe and will give the workers’
movement the opportunity to at least neutralise parts of it.
The programmatic weakness of
the new left parties partially reflects the consequences of the collapse
of the former Stalinist regimes and the throwing back of political
consciousness. In addition, the fact that the working class has not yet
moved decisively to take hold of these parties and shape them as a
political instrument of class struggle. This was an important aspect of
the Greek crisis. While workers had voted for Syriza they had not joined
it and fought within it.
These features point to these
organisations being extremely unstable with an uncertain future,
especially when tested in great historic events such as Greece, Brexit
and now Catalonia. The collapse of the PRC in Italy, which had a more
solid active layer of industrial workers, is a warning of the
limitations of the new parties. The failure of the PRC – and its
eventual collapse – is one of the main factors leading to the difficult
and complicated situation which exists in Italy.
Recent experience – in
Momentum where our comrades have been excluded, the Left Bloc with a
renewed witch-hunt against our comrades, the actions of Iglesias in
Catalonia – has shown that the leadership of these parties can resort to
bureaucratic methods when faced with opposition from the left,
especially from Marxists.
The failure of the new left
parties to offer a strong alternative to the pro-capitalist parties has
in some countries allowed the far-right to make significant gains and
capitalise on the concerns among layers of workers and the middle class
about immigration. The unexpectedly larger gains made by the AfD
(Alternative for Germany) in the recent elections reflected this. Maybot
in Britain was not the only victor in an election to emerge
substantially weakened. This also applies to Merkel.
The historic demise of the
Conservative Party in Britain is being echoed in other countries. The
boss of the giant Siemens corporation described the elections in Germany
as "a defeat of the elites". Twenty percent of AfD’s support came from
people who had not voted previously. However, this will not stop any new
government, whatever its eventual composition, from pursuing further
‘liberalisation’ – additional attacks on the working class and youth.
![Socialism Today 214 - Dec/Jan 2017/18](214-cover.jpg)
Decline in support for social democracy
Meanwhile, the ‘social
democrat’ SPD saw its vote fall to its lowest percentage share since the
early 1930s. That was the price of joining Merkel’s coalition and the
role of the party in initiating the attacks on workers especially under
Gerhard Schröder. The decline of the SPD’s electoral support is an
important feature of this period especially among the youth. It has been
reflected elsewhere: the electoral slaughter of the French PS, which
lost 90% of its seats in parliament; the decline of PSOE, which has lost
half of its vote since the crisis in 2007/08; the prospect of the Irish
Labour Party losing all of its seats at the next election; the decline
of the PS/SP in Belgium; the collapse in support for Pasok in Greece.
Even in Austria, while the SPÖ held onto its overall vote share, it only
received 17% of votes from those aged under 29, and from 19% of manual
workers – an extremely significant collapse.
Sections of the new left
leadership are attempting to revive ‘social democracy’ from the ashes of
its decline. Yet they are attempting this in an era of capitalist
decline and decay when there is no room for the reforms conceded for a
protracted period in the past. They are reformists without lasting
reforms. They see their programme as a means of ‘reforming capitalism’
to end its neoliberal phase and introduce a more humane form of the
market. Left advisers like Paul Mason in Britain make this explicitly
clear. This will lead the new left leadership to rapidly betray the
aspirations of the masses when or if they come to power and face the
constraints and crisis of capitalism.
This was graphically shown in
Greece with the betrayal of Alexis Tsipras. This has resulted in him
being praised by Donald Trump following his recent visit to the US and
the announcement that the Greek government is buying US fighter jets!
The hopes in the German SPD that it could recover under the leadership
of Martin Schultz, who would ‘do a Corbyn’, slumped as he backtracked on
his hints at a more radical turn to the left. In Spain, Pedro Sánchez
and the movement which developed around him in PSOE crashed against the
wall of the mass movement in Catalonia. The possible radicalisation and
split in PSOE seems to have evaporated.
The decline of social
democracy is not uniform of course and there are exceptions. The Labour
Party in Britain has seen a large increase in support and membership,
for the reasons explained around Corbyn. In Portugal, the PS remains
relatively popular. It is propped up in power by the Left Bloc and the
CP and, while continuing with cuts, it has carried them out more
selectively. Coupled with the idea of a shallow, ephemeral economic
upturn, there is a certain sense that at least ‘we have not been crushed
like the Greeks’. This mood can rapidly change especially with the onset
of a renewed economic crisis or more cuts being made by the government.
Gains by the far-right
The CWI has recognised the
threat of the growth of the far-right in some countries. Often this has
been achieved on the basis of right-wing populist ideas, sometimes – as
in the case of France – demagogically stealing from the traditional
policies of the socialist left to win votes. In Germany, the AfD played
down its most ardent neoliberal policies.
Although the AfD is not yet a
consolidated political force it may emerge to be so as the Vlaams Belang
in Belgium or the Front National in France. However, such parties are
limited in how far they can go. They can rapidly go into crisis when
they face obstacles or set-backs. This has been seen in the FN following
the recent presidential election. Nonetheless, in the absence of
powerful mass workers’ parties the existence of such parties is now
established as a permanent or semi-permanent feature in Europe. This is
illustrated by the FPÖ in Austria which will need to be challenged by
new mass parties of the working class. The fact that the FPÖ won the
support of 59% of manual workers shows the alienation that exists and
the concerns of this layer particularly following the refugee crisis.
The forces of the CWI have a
crucial role to play in intervening to defend the rights of immigrants,
opposing racism and fighting for workers’ unity and in addressing the
fears and concerns of many workers. The threat from the far-right will
also produce a backlash, especially from the youth, as has been seen in
Germany. The tremendous demonstration of 20,000 in Gothenburg against
the fascist NMR, in which the Swedish CWI section,
Rattvisepartiet
Socialisterna, played a decisive role, was an illustration of this.
Sweden has remained relatively unscathed by the economic crisis of
2007-08. However, the constant jostling and realigning of parties, and
an increase in quite determined social struggles, are indications of the
convulsions to come.
The coming to power of the
right-wing, populist nationalist parties in some countries of central
and eastern Europe is a warning of the threat which these forces can
pose. For example, the extreme nationalistic rhetoric and bonapartist
measures adopted by the Law and Justice government in Poland. Yet its
attacks on democratic rights and attempts to shackle the judiciary have
provoked a backlash. At the same time, it has introduced some social
reforms on child benefit, an hourly minimum wage and a pledge to reduce
the retirement age. This has enabled it to maintain a level of support
among some workers. Yet the government’s policies have provoked protests
and struggles. Significantly, the initial protests against the proposals
to tighten government control of the judiciary were initiated by the
small left forces around Razem (Together Party) and the trade union
federation, OPZZ.
The shocks which have erupted
in the past period – Brexit, Catalonia and the growth of the AfD in
Germany – are an anticipation of even greater upheavals which will erupt
in Europe in the coming period. These will include the elements of
revolution and counter-revolution as we have already seen. Through the
application of flexible and bold tactics and initiatives, the CWI in
Europe can make significant steps forward. It can assist workers and
young people entering political and industrial struggles to draw the
conclusions to take on the tasks and programme necessary to defeat
capitalism.